Orioles offer BRob 3yr 30 million

[tennOsfan]

I think that's a little over the top.

Look at Fangraphs, and their WAR and value ratings for Roberts. Over the last four years Roberts has been worth an average of 4.75 wins over replacement per season. Let's say for the sake of argument that he's at 4.5 this year, 4.0 in 2010, 3.5 in 2011, and 3.0 in 2012.

At 2008 dollar rates he's worth nearly $70M. But this is a depressed market. Let's say a win is now worth $3.5M instead of $4.5M or so. That means a 4/$52.5M contract would be pretty reasonable for 2009-2012. If you're not tearing up his '09 deal, and you assume he drops another half a win for 2013, then a 4/45 deal would be ok. Or, if you want to build in some insurance for the O's and assume that Roberts falls off more in his mid-30s you could lop off a couple more wins and come up with a 4/39 kind of deal.

If the O's are set on only a three-year deal from 2010-2012, and they are valuing wins at a lower $3.5M level, and they use the accelerated aging numbers... well, then you come up with 3/37 deal being pretty reasonable.

The only way 3/30 makes sense for Brian Roberts is if the true market value has dropped all the way to $2.85M per win (and that's using Oriole-friendly estimates of Robert's future value), after being over $4M for a number of years. You'd have to roll back baseball's revenues and expenses to about the time of the last labor problems to get to that level, and that was at a time when the sport brought in maybe 2/3rds of the $6-$6.5B in revenues expected in 2009.

3/30 is a very owner-friendly number. The only way they should have expected him to accept that would be a hometown discount, or they'd expect him to be very pessimistic about the economy's effect on baseball. If the market bounces back only part way to 2007 or 2008 levels he's worth $50M+. Same thing goes if he doesn't age quite as quickly.

I know you love your numbers, but I'd be hard-pressed to offer Roberts more than the 3/30 considering there is no interest for him in the trade market.

If he was worth more than that offer, there would be more teams after him.

[Frobby]

Roberts has a body of work. Pedroia has one year. If and when and who Roberts signs a contract with it will be over 10 Million a year.

Pedroia's deal pays him $10 mm in 2013 and 2014, which are the only years of his contract in which he would have been a free agent. (There's also a 2015 option for $11 mm). I agree that I don't see Roberts signing for less than $10 mm per year.

You are right that Roberts has a "body of work," but Pedroia has a Rookie of the Year and an MVP under his belt at the age of 24. He figures to be a better player in 2013 and 2014 (at ages 29-30) than Roberts will be in 2010-12 (at ages 32-34). If Roberts gets more than $10 mm/yr, it won't be by much.

[Sports Guy]

I don't for a moment believe that you would want him even for 2/24. Maybe I'm wrong, SG -- but it appears you want him gone yesterday.

Oh, I don't want him for that at all.

Just saying that is the most I could stomach giving him.

Much rather have the picks than sign BRob to any extension.

[Mackus]

Roberts has a body of work. Pedroia has one year. If and when and who Roberts signs a contract with it will be over 10 Million a year.

Semi-correct conclusion, wrong reasoning.

Pedroia only "averages" $10M a year because of his service time. He would have made ~$450k in 2009 if not for the next contract. So the Red Sox didn't need to pay him FA rates for 2009.

His 6/$40.5M contract is really more like 5/$40M extension given his low wage for 2009. And the first 3 years of that extension are heavily discounted because he would only be arbitration eligible for those three years, not buying out a FA year. His rate for FA years is closer to

Pedroia definitely traded a higher salary as a FA for some early security and to stay in Boston. His FA years were bought out at roughly $10-11M a year. and that is a very discounted rate because they are so far away and Boston is taking on most of the risk by guaranteeing him money up front.

[ChaosLex]

I was told we may add an option year but won't go much over 3/32 million. That being said there is zippy interest in Roberts right now. Hudson has yet to sign and the Fish will make Uggla available soon.

The Marlins never say never when it comes to player movement, but trading All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla isn't an option any time soon.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/sports/epaper/2009/01/21/a3c_marlinsbaseball_0122.html?cxtype=rss&cxsvc=7&cxcat=46

[UpstateNYfan]

Poppycock, I say. All 29 GM's could hold a press conference stating that they are not willing to trade for Roberts and AM would still be held responsible for not trading him this offseason. For every "blind homer, with his head in the sand", there are posters who are completely unreasonable in their expectations, and will vehemently attack the O's FO on just about every move they make.

If a good move is made, you immediately see comments like, it should have been done months ago. Doesn't matter that none of us has a real clue as to what is going on behind the scenes.

You mean it takes two to tango??? AM can't just say I want this, this and this and the other GM's and Agents say "Yes, my Lord." 99.9% of the trades and FA signings suggested here are not realistic and biased.

That said, FA's and players (and agents) are having to go through a paradiagm shift this year and for the next few years. Teams are looking more closely at their budgets and bottom lines. Especially if they are in no position to win. In their finances, it was always perceived that franchises, like homes, would increase in values. I am not sure this is still the case, except in glamour markets. The "average veteran", may be replaced by a younger player from the farm. The very good player will be offered less(by their standards) and shorter contracts. The "superstars' will sign with the Yanks.

[NewMarketSean]

It sounds more and more like Roberts is going to walk and we're going to take the draft picks. Unless he is traded at the deadline, which wont get much back in return for a 2 month rental, I see AM taking the picks.

[Mackus]

It sounds more and more like Roberts is going to walk and we're going to take the draft picks. Unless he is traded at the deadline, which wont get much back in return for a 2 month rental, I see AM taking the picks.

I have a feeling the draft picks will be more valuable than anything we'll get offered in a trade as well. Hopefully Roberts has a monster first half and teams are dying to get him and we can get some big time talent, but I'm not very sure thats likely.

[Since'54]

Oh, I don't want him for that at all.

Just saying that is the most I could stomach giving him.

Much rather have the picks than sign BRob to any extension.

Why do you have so much faith in draft picks. Yes, Wieters appears to have been a home run but it will be a while before we know what we have in Matusz and many other early draft picks have yielded nothing. Ok, we'd all like to think we have better scouting now, but the draft will always be a high-risk gamble. Roberts is a better bet.

[Frobby]

Why do you have so much faith in draft picks. Yes' date=' Wieters appears to have been a home run but it will be a while before we know what we have in Matusz and many other early draft picks have yielded nothing. Ok, we'd all like to think we have better scouting now, but the draft will always be a high-risk gamble. Roberts is a better bet.[/quote']

I think the logic is simple -- he doesn't think that Roberts will be an above average player by the time the Orioles are ready to compete. Therefore, he'd rather have the picks.

Where you stand on this issue depends a lot on how good you think Roberts will be in 2011 and beyond.

[cindyluvsbrady]

Anyone else having Melvin Mora flashbacks?

NOPE:no:

My Melvin is a good guy and I am glad he is an O:):clap3::wedge:

[cindyluvsbrady]

The only blank check I noticed is from Cindy. As for me, I've proposed a three year deal with a fourth year option.

Im sticking by that.

How can you define pricelees in an $$ amount?:eektf:

Please sign My Perfect One:hearts:NOW!!!!!!!!!!

[DrungoHazewood]

I know you love your numbers, but I'd be hard-pressed to offer Roberts more than the 3/30 considering there is no interest for him in the trade market.

If he was worth more than that offer, there would be more teams after him.

At this moment, maybe. That's exactly why Roberts would be foolish to take the Orioles' offer: the market is probably at a low, and his value may be much less right now than at the end of the season. If he maintains much of his value through the year by playing well, and Uggla doesn't hit the market (or is gone by then), Roberts is competing with these free agents (and some of them may re-up before becoming free agents):

Marlon Anderson NYM

Ron Belliard WAS

Jamey Carroll CLE

Mark DeRosa CHC

Adam Kennedy STL

Omar Infante ATL

Placido Polanco DET

Freddy Sanchez PIT

He's pretty clearly the top player on that list, and probably will be in a year.

I don't think he's taking much of a gamble at all by waiting until the O's make a much higher offer or walking after '09.

[Mongolbird]

Brian Roberts is not worth 3/30 in my book. The stats I think are important are revealing. I can't believe AM would offer that much. I'd go 3/20 at the most. I'm not surprised his value is down and that we haven't been able to trade him for what we've wanted in return. He's overrated.

I love him to death and think he adds intangible value to this team. Still, business is business.

.296

9 HR

57 RBI

40

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

2008 155 611 107 181 51 8 9 57 275 82 104 40 10 .378 .450 .296

Career 975 3858 619 1095 262 32 61 364 1604 438 562 226 57 .355 .416 .284

[Babypowder]

Brian Roberts is not worth 3/30 in my book. The stats I think are important are revealing. I can't believe AM would offer that much. I'd go 3/20 at the most. I'm not surprised his value is down and that we haven't been able to trade him for what we've wanted in return. He's overrated.

I love him to death and think he adds intangible value to this team. Still, business is business.

.296

9 HR

57 RBI

40

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

2008 155 611 107 181 51 8 9 57 275 82 104 40 10 .378 .450 .296

Career 975 3858 619 1095 262 32 61 364 1604 438 562 226 57 .355 .416 .284

Judging any player's value by average and RBI alone is irresponsible, doing it for a leadoff hitter is downright laughable.