Let’s assume Mateo is an .800+ OPS, 5+ WAR shortstop — now what?

[Frobby]

Actually, I do not assume that Mateo will post an .800+ OPS, 5+ WAR season.  But, for sake of discussion, let’s assume this happens.  Now what?

Mateo is in his first Arb season this year, and he’s in his age 28 season (actually, a “young” 28, born just 8 days too soon to be listed as 27 for this year).   Besides him, we have the 22 year old Henderson and the 24 year old Ortiz already on the roster, with the 19-year old Holliday already in Hi-A.   

So in the scenario I describe, do we:

1.  Extend Mateo and look to trade some of the others?

2.  Just play it year by year but keep Mateo on the roster while awaiting Holliday?

3.  Trade Mateo at what would be a really good peak value at the end of this year, and hand his job to Henderson or Ortiz for now?

It’s a really tough choice if Mateo proves he’s that quality of player.  You know the saying about the bird in the hand…
 

[foxfield]

It’s a great time to be an Oriole fan. Could the answer be as simple as who someone else wants to part with a stud pitcher with 4 years+ of control?

 

I mean if the Dodgers called tomorrow and offered their top pitching prospect and another piece would we care which SS they wanted?

Also from a valuation standpoint if the Orioles believe Mateo is the player you describe shouldn’t they extend him either way?  I would think he is the cheapest player on board to extend. 
 

[Bahama O's Fan]

2 and 1. Do year by year with Mateo until Holliday is ready AND trade some of the others

[sevastras]

I would trade Mateo at the end of the year. I think I have a post somewhere about how difficult it will be to part ways with the WS MVP prior to the season but even then, I would trade him. Too many prospects that can replace his value(not speed but maybe more offense) then to keep him and not get a good return. The franchise just isn’t set up to hold on to players like him too long.  They have to maximize value and keep payroll in check. 

[now]

Yep, that's the big question. Key info this year is how it goes for all those guys. I'm currently most concerned about Henderson. And remember Norby and Mayo and Westburg clamoring at the edges of that SS spot (maybe even Prieto). 

[Cuellar35]

I have a proposal. What would a package featuring Mateo, Uriah, and say Norby bring back in return?

[Natty]

2.

Also for now I would move him up higher in the lineup. 

[Otter]

Great question.  Like you, I don't really think he'll be a consistent .800 OPS guy...he had a two month hot streak last year and then was putrid the rest of the year.  I'll believe it when he has an .800 OPS in July.  But for the sake of the exercise, I love our infield prospects but a SS with GG defense and .800 OPS is extremely rare...so I'd pick #2 and keep Mateo until Holliday shows he's ready.  I could also see the argument for #3 and trade him now when his value is at the highest...we need pitching and at least we're relatively certain Ortiz and/or Henderson could play a good defensive SS.

[RZNJ]

Looks like an .800 OPS guy to me but you don't extend him.  After the 2025 season you decide if you trade him or are going to ride out the last year.

[Otter]

Just now, Natty said:

2.

Also for now I would move him up higher in the lineup. 

I agree with moving him up in the lineup while he's hot.  I think Hyde could do a better job changing the lineup to more reflect who's hot and who's cold.

[wildcard]

Not a decision that has be be made now.   Elias can consider an extend with Mateo over the winter.  Decision time can be as late as the deadline in 2024.  That's more time to see who Mateo is, who all the prospects are.    Keep the best.

Mateo potential is enormous.   If he is a key player in getting the O's to be WS champs they shouldn't trade him if they can afford him.   The deal breaker is when he wants more years than the O's think he will be productive.

 

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

2 and 1. Do year by year with Mateo until Holliday is ready AND trade some of the others

Is Holliday the O's future SS or CF.  He has the speed to do either.   Does he replace Mateo or Mullins. The O's have 15 months to figure that out.

[OriolesMagic83]

26 minutes ago, foxfield said:

It’s a great time to be an Oriole fan. Could the answer be as simple as who someone else wants to part with a stud pitcher with 4 years+ of control?

 

I mean if the Dodgers called tomorrow and offered their top pitching prospect and another piece would we care which SS they wanted?

Also from a valuation standpoint if the Orioles believe Mateo is the player you describe shouldn’t they extend him either way?  I would think he is the cheapest player on board to extend. 
 

I'm not sure I want to trade Mateo for a pitching prospect, just because TNSTAAPP.  If the Marlins called and said they wanted to trade Alcantara for Mateo and a prospect not named Holliday or Gunnar I would say when can we do it. 

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Looks like an .800 OPS guy to me but you don't extend him.  After the 2025 season you decide if you trade him or are going to ride out the last year.

Can't trade him after the 2025 season.  He will be a FA then.

[Bemorewins]

I vote for #2. Let him be and stay where he is until Holiday is ready.