AL team to watch: White Sox

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

 

There are very very few guys worth 3-4 of those, especially if you are including Cowser, Kjersted or Povich in the deal.

I must say, it’s hard for me to recall a deal that involved more than two top-100 prospects.   I guess the Juan Soto deal sort of did, if you count Gore, who had lost prospect status but had been very highly ranked at one time.  

[sportsfan8703]

I would have my immediate replacements lined up like this,

Ortiz -> Frazier

Cowser -> Open RF/Hays

Kjerstad/Mayo -> Santander/Mounty

Holliday/Basallo - untouchable  

So that leaves Westburg, Norby, Stowers, Prieto, Haskin all as offensive prospects in AA+ that are surplus.  All surplus offense.  Those are the main trade chips with the other offense in A ball.   

I don’t think Elias would include our comp pick. We’re too good at drafting now. 
 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[sportsfan8703]

We need to consolidate our depth for MLB SP for 2023+, while trying to keep as much as our top end depth(Holliday, Cowser, Ortiz, Mayo, Kjerstad, Bassalo) as possible. I’m realistic that isn’t likely possible, but that should be the goal. We really have some top end talent. There’s no point in keeping the depth and trading away the top end. 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I must say, it’s hard for me to recall a deal that involved more than two top-100 prospects.   I guess the Juan Soto deal sort of did, if you count Gore, who had lost prospect status but had been very highly ranked at one time.  

Pretty sure the Luis Castillo trade has multiple top 100 guys.

Edit: Cincy got 2 top 50 Guys and Seattles 10th best prospect…and that was a deep system last year, ranking #1 by some.  They got another player as well.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Bemorewins]

31 minutes ago, foxfield said:

If the Orioles are asked to give 4 of the top 9 prospects for a player I believe the Orioles pass.

The Orioles have a need for a TOR pitcher, that is obvious to all of us and everyone in the MLB.  They have a talented and deep positional roster and prospect pool.  But I think people here often overthink the  urgency of having to spend prospects.  This isn't money burning a hole in the Orioles pockets.  There are ways to manage this even if deals cannot be made.

I would prefer to not see the Orioles non-tender current players, but I'd rather non-tender players on the current roster than simply dump multiple players for a rental pitcher.

The Orioles do face a significant 40 man roster crunch but that issue is not the same as today's pitching issue and shouldn't be married to each other.

But the point stands, that the Orioles have entered a competitive window and their success inside that window, regardless of whether they extend stars, sign free agents or make trades...will be limited to their pitching success.  

Which does mean that Elias' biggest challenge is going to be how he can acquire a front line pitcher or two.  

I believe, given his stated desire to be good and competitive over a long period, that he is going to be more careful and more long term oriented than the typical fan who wants maximum success today.  

Either way, it's an exciting and nerve racking time to be an Oriole fan.

He has been about as careful as possible. He has been very long term oriented, but he has to deal with a reality which is NOW. 

1) He can no longer justify an approach that doesn't prioritize Major League winning. And not just having a winning record. The current team is much too good for that. Now the priority has to shift to competing for a World Series. And as you mentioned, he's going to have to figure out a way to get the pitching necessary in order to do that. If you won't/don't want to do that via FA, then trades are the only option. Because he did not draft ANY in the last 5 years.

2) Unless our awful ownership has a change of heart, we are now "on the clock" so to speak with Adley. We are only going to have him for 4 more years after this season. There is not really a high probability that there will be a better Orioles team in the near future that he is not apart of. So, if we punt on this season "for the sake of the future" or opt for an ultra conservative approach to talent acquisition (that IMO is almost assured to be ineffective in the postseason. I believe talent wins in the Fall, not smoke and mirrors. You simply have to have the horses). Then that will leave us with 4 more years left AND we will have the same whole in the starting rotation going into next offseason.

3) You can only slow play guys development for so long until it begins to effect the development of the guys behind them. Ortiz, Stowers, Cowser, Westburg, and Norby cannot finish this season at AAA. Why do I say that? - Because if they do, that will stifle the growth of not only them (after all Ortiz will be 25 this season and you don't see many if any 26 year old prospects). But that will mean guys like Mayo, Prieto, Kjerstad, etc can't move up and will be "stuck" at their level. There is a trickle down negative effect that is created with a logjam.

4) Then some of those "older" prospects start to lose value because other orgs begin to question "Why has he been at _____ level for so long? There must be something wrong."

5) The worse thing we can do is try to jam a bunch of top #100 guys at the ML level (where there is no place already for them to play). And try to platoon most/many of them. Again, players are loosing value being used this way. And they are loosing development by not getting enough ABs.

Elias whether he wants to or not, is going to have his hand forced a little this season because things are becoming clogged. There is no future scenario where all 9 top 100 guys or even say 6/7 remain with the Baltimore Orioles long term. 5 are at AAA and a couple will be 25 this year.

And as much as some may want to, we are not going to move offload of a guy producing the way Mateo is for a much lesser talented player in Ortiz. That holds no logic, when the Major League team is carrying the 3rd best record in the sport and he is one of the large reasons why.

[HandsomeQuack]

1 hour ago, Es4M11 said:

Eduardo Rodriguez makes the most sense to me today. A likely rental, pitching for a new contract. A lefty with experience pitching in the AL East. He's pitching really well and would arguably be the Orioles best starter as of right now. Shouldn't cost a fortune and the Tigers would be a pretty good trade partner for the Orioles. For this season I could live with a playoff rotation of E.Rodriguez - G.Rodriguez - Means/Bradish.

At seasons end, E.Rodriguez opts out and the Orioles place the QO on him. Leaves the Orioles flexibility for a run at a front line starter in free agency (Nola, etc).

You can't QO midseason acquisitions, unfortunately. It's only for guys who spend the whole year with the club.

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I must say, it’s hard for me to recall a deal that involved more than two top-100 prospects.   I guess the Juan Soto deal sort of did, if you count Gore, who had lost prospect status but had been very highly ranked at one time.  

If you count Abrams (who it looks like just barely crossed 130 PAs with San Diego), that's three with Wood and Hassell.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, HandsomeQuack said:

You can't QO midseason acquisitions, unfortunately. It's only for guys who spend the whole year with the club.

If you count Abrams (who it looks like just barely crossed 130 PAs with San Diego), that's three with Wood and Hassell.

I forgot that Wood was so highly regarded.  He wasn’t on any pre-2022 lists but shot up by the time of the trade and end of the year.  

Anyway, I’m not seeing a lot of guys who are the pitching equivalent of Soto (who had 2.3 years of control remaining) under discussion.  
 

[Bemorewins]

59 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I have been bringing up ERod since last year for that reason. He makes $14M this year and then has 3/$49M remaining. He has an Opt out after this year he would likely exercise so he as a rental he shouldn't cost much. CoC and I couldn't figure out if he can be QO-ed again since he declined the BOS QO. If not, DET has little reason to hold on to him for the rest of the year. If they aren't going to get a pick would they say NO to Irvin and Norby??? It COULD be an opportunity to renegotiate his opt out and add a few option years at basically the cost of Frazier and Gibson. You have you stable inning eater for multiple years (assuming you can extend him) to go with GRod, Bradish, Means, Wells, Kremer, Povitch, Johnson. That should cover the Adley years

I don't hold a lot of hope that our ownership is interested in paying for any serious FA. If Eduardo Rodriguez continues to perform anywhere close to his current level, it will be a career year. And then he will be in high demand come the offseason, especially if he performs well for us in the postseason.

Also, I hope we don't limit the "Adley years" to that kind of rotation. I see an Eduardo Rodriguez who would continue to be on the wrong side of 30 on a 5 year deal. Grayson developing into a nice top tier pitcher. Means will be gone after next year I believe. And the rest more back end of the rotation guys. I don't see that holding up for 4 years of postseason runs.

Also, with this approach of "saving the prospects", I ask what are you saving them all for? There is no place that all of them can play on a Major League roster, unless you are an advocate of getting rid of contributing Big League players on a winning team (who some like Hays and Mateo may be allstars and others like Mullins have skill sets that are very hard to find in the sport period - we have no one in the org that can patrol CF like him and do the kind of damage that he can on the basepaths).

[Bemorewins]

47 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

I think if the O's go big and get a guy like Cease that should eliminate most of the log jam as we would likely be sending out several prospects. If Elias chooses to buy a cheaper rental instead, then I could also see the potential for a follow-up prospect for prospect trade i.e. Westburg or Norby for a couple promising guys in A-ball somewhere.

It's very risky in projecting A-ball pitchers. We get much more certainty by trading some of our maybes for an already is. 

I would not like to see us waste assets in this way, with Adley already on the Major League roster. The time for us to compete for championships is while he and Grayson are already here. It is a VERY LOW probability that we can obtain prospects via trade who will ever be as good/talented/pedigreed as them.

Nobody, not the Rays, Dodgers, Guardians, whoever continues to produce #1 prospects year upon year (or even top 10 for that matter). It's arrogance in my opinion to believe that we can continue to stock this level of young talent long term. 

We have to use what we have, whether that's bringing them up to the O's or out to another team for players who can help the O's. I don't see any scenario where we can continue this run that we have been on with this much minor league talent. It will and should thin out to a degree. The issue is that you never want it to go bare. But look at the Astros now, they have ZERO top 100 guys now. It's just how it goes.

[Bemorewins]

47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I must say, it’s hard for me to recall a deal that involved more than two top-100 prospects.   I guess the Juan Soto deal sort of did, if you count Gore, who had lost prospect status but had been very highly ranked at one time.  

Didn't the Nats get 3/4 not including Gore for Soto?

If we trade 3 or 4. That's still what 5, 6 left?

I don't know how many times in the history of the game that anyone org has had the kind of talent that we do. Who can bring a #1 prospect up and by years end have another in the top #2? And then the next year have another #1 by that years end?

I'm not saying that this is you personally, but I don't understand the rationale of people thinking that we can become prospect poor after one big trade? We have SO MUCH!

It's like Bezos or Gates being afraid to make a purchase asking themselves "How can I afford this?" or "What will I have left if I spend this much? lol

[RZNJ]

Haha.  This was supposed to be a regression year after the 31 game improvement last year.  Now we’re talking about unloading the farm system for a TOR pitcher.   I think that trade may have to wait until the off-season if it happens at all.   I think Elias will be quite content if this team makes the playoffs virtually as is.   Any run in the playoffs is going to depend on internal improvements from GRod, Bradish, Wells, and Kremer. Also, what John Means looks like when he comes back.  

[HandsomeQuack]

Bemore, I don't think anyone disagrees with what you are saying. The point is that it took the single greatest deadline commodity (Soto) of the last decade to necessitate trading 3-4 top 100 guys. There is no pitcher that will or should command that much. The team would be better off spreading those guys across multiple trades.

Edited May 2, 2023 by HandsomeQuack
missed a couple words

[Bemorewins]

41 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I would have my immediate replacements lined up like this,

Ortiz -> Frazier

Cowser -> Open RF/Hays

Kjerstad/Mayo -> Santander/Mounty

Holliday/Basallo - untouchable  

So that leaves Westburg, Norby, Stowers, Prieto, Haskin all as offensive prospects in AA+ that are surplus.  All surplus offense.  Those are the main trade chips with the other offense in A ball.   

I don’t think Elias would include our comp pick. We’re too good at drafting now. 
 

 

I believe that team with all those young player editions would eventually have the best offense in baseball. But would take a while to get there. The problem is that this year's team is ready to win now ADN we only have Adley for 4 more years. Plus, with all of that great offense, I'm not sure that we could win with this subpar pitching staff/organizational pitching talent.

Grayson is the best that we have and there is NO ONE coming who is even close to him. Or for that matter even in his tier as a prospect. We gotta find better pitching from somewhere or the great offense won't matter in the end.

[Bemorewins]

Just now, HandsomeQuack said:

Bemore, I don't think anyone disagrees with what you are saying. The point it took the single greatest deadline commodity (Soto) to necessitate trading 3-4 top 100 guys. There is no pitcher that will or should command that much. The team would be better off spreading those guys across multiple trades.

Oh, I am on board with that! If we can get a pitching talent to anchor the top of our rotation and then have more left over, I would be through the roof with joy!!!!! I'm not anxious or an a hurry to give away our talent

Question: You don't think Alcantara would cost a similar prospect price to Juan Soto given that he still has what 3/4 more years on his contract?

I do agree that Cease won't cost as much. I don't see anyone else who could be available that is on the level of those two. The next tier down may include like a Jesus Luzardo or a Eduardo Rodriguez.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Didn't the Nats get 3/4 not including Gore for Soto?

If we trade 3 or 4. That's still what 5, 6 left?

I don't know how many times in the history of the game that anyone org has had the kind of talent that we do. Who can bring a #1 prospect up and by years end have another in the top #2? And then the next year have another #1 by that years end?

I'm not saying that this is you personally, but I don't understand the rationale of people thinking that we can become prospect poor after one big trade? We have SO MUCH!

It's like Bezos or Gates being afraid to make a purchase asking themselves "How can I afford this?" or "What will I have left if I spend this much? lol

It’s a matter of getting what you pay for in the trade.  I’d be fine giving up 3-4 top 100 prospects for the pitching equivalent of Soto.  Who is that?  Keep in mind Soto was under control for 2.3 more seasons when he was traded.