AL team to watch: White Sox

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I must say, it’s hard for me to recall a deal that involved more than two top-100 prospects.   I guess the Juan Soto deal sort of did, if you count Gore, who had lost prospect status but had been very highly ranked at one time.  

Were either Finley or Harnish top 100? 

[HandsomeQuack]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Question: You don't think Alcantara would cost a similar prospect price to Juan Soto given that he still has what 3/4 more years on his contract?

Possibly, but I think it's extremely unlikely that he will be available. He's a young, elite pitcher on such a cheap contract that not even the Marlins need to unload him. The only non-rental candidate I am currently aware of is Cease. Luzardo would be great but I assume they are not hankering to get rid of him, either.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Haha.  This was supposed to be a regression year after the 31 game improvement last year.  Now we’re talking about unloading the farm system for a TOR pitcher.   I think that trade may have to wait until the off-season if it happens at all.   I think Elias will be quite content if this team makes the playoffs virtually as is.   Any run in the playoffs is going to depend on internal improvements from GRod, Bradish, Wells, and Kremer. Also, what John Means looks like when he comes back.  

Given all of the talent that we have with 9 top 100 prospects, how could we unload all the minor league talent?

I sincerely hope that we would not waste one of the Adley years on hoping that Bradish or Kremer magically become pitchers that can help us win in the postseason.

Even if Elias does what you suggest, he can only go down this course for so long, guys can't stay at AAA and AA for multiple seasons, especially not players who are a year away from agin out of prospect status. I don't know of too many 26 year old prospects. At some point guys begin to lose value as you have wasted prime years in the Minor Leagues.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Given all of the talent that we have with 9 top 100 prospects, how could we unload all the minor league talent?

I sincerely hope that we would not waste one of the Adley years on hoping that Bradish or Kremer magically become pitchers that can help us win in the postseason.

Even if Elias does what you suggest, he can only go down this course for so long, guys can't stay at AAA and AA for multiple seasons, especially not players who are a year away from agin out of prospect status. I don't know of too many 26 year old prospects. At some point guys begin to lose value as you have wasted prime years in the Minor Leagues.

I find it funny that this 19-9 start has people think World Series run.   Long way to go.  A solid top 3 starters and elite bullpen can take you a long way.  Pretty sure Elias is going to see if we have either, neither, and actually see where we are in the pecking order before doing anything too bold.

 

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s a matter of getting what you pay for in the trade.  I’d be fine giving up 3-4 top 100 prospects for the pitching equivalent of Soto.  Who is that?  Keep in mind Soto was under control for 2.3 more seasons when he was traded.   

Alcantara. Maybe? But some are saying that he won't be available.

The best pitcher that I can see on a terrible team who will be out of it this year is Cease.

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, HandsomeQuack said:

Possibly, but I think it's extremely unlikely that he will be available. He's a young, elite pitcher on such a cheap contract that not even the Marlins need to unload him. The only non-rental candidate I am currently aware of is Cease. Luzardo would be great but I assume they are not hankering to get rid of him, either.

Isn't Luzardo a rental? Isn't he an FA after this year?

If what you are saying is the case, then Cease may be our guy to go after. Yes, he only has the one great year and yes he has not gotten off to the best of starts. Though I would argue that other than his last start against Tampa his season has been fine.

But he would be MUCH better than anything that we currently have (though I very much believe in Grayson's ceiling/talent). And we could get 3 postseason runs out of him. He's not just a solution for this year, but solves a long term issue and we have an abundance of resources to pull of the trade without it hurting us short term or long term.

I think some of his drawbacks could potentially work in our favor in terms of the price that we need to pay in order to acquire his services. But to a team with NINE top 100 prospects, if you take away 3, you still have 6 left. That is more then every team but 2 in the sport. And it will probably be more than all but 1 when the Dodgers make their trade for Ohtani.

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I find it funny that this 19-9 start has people think World Series run.   Long way to go.  A solid top 3 starters and elite bullpen can take you a long way.  Pretty sure Elias is going to see if we have either, neither, and actually see where we are in the pecking order before doing anything too bold.

 

I don't think that the team as CURRENTLY constructed has a snowballs chance in Hedes of winning a World Series. Heck, to me it would be a miracle if we could win a SINGLE post season series with this starting staff.

However, by season's end as Gunnar grows and Grayson grows and develops, and Cowsers comes up and takes over LF moving Hays to RF (which would give us elite outfield defense), and if Cano is real. And then if you ADD an ELITE starting pitcher to the mix which would lessen the stress on the bullpen. 

That team would have a real shot! And if Means could come back and give us anything, like Morton gave the Astros that one year, then we might even have better odds.

I certainly am totally against wasting this year on exploration/experiments. We have too much talent to be that negligent. Plus Adley is only here for a limited time, the way things are looking now with our terrible ownership situation. 

[HandsomeQuack]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Isn't Luzardo a rental? Isn't he an FA after this year?

If what you are saying is the case, then Cease may be our guy to go after. Yes, he only has the one great year and yes he has not gotten off to the best of starts. Though I would argue that other than his last start against Tampa his season has been fine.

But he would be MUCH better than anything that we currently have (though I very much believe in Grayson's ceiling/talent). And we could get 3 postseason runs out of him. He's not just a solution for this year, but solves a long term issue and we have an abundance of resources to pull of the trade without it hurting us short term or long term.

I think some of his drawbacks could potentially work in our favor in terms of the price that we need to pay in order to acquire his services. But to a team with NINE top 100 prospects, if you take away 3, you still have 6 left. That is more then every team but 2 in the sport. And it will probably be more than all but 1 when the Dodgers make their trade for Ohtani.

Per Baseball Reference, Luzardo is controlled through 2026. And I would love for the team to acquire Cease, for the record. But I haven't given any deep thought to whom I would package to make that happen.

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't think that the team as CURRENTLY constructed has a snowballs chance in Hedes of winning a World Series. Heck, to me it would be a miracle if we could win a SINGLE post season series with this starting staff.

However, by season's end as Gunnar grows and Grayson grows and develops, and Cowsers comes up and takes over LF moving Hays to RF (which would give us elite outfield defense), and if Cano is real. And then if you ADD an ELITE starting pitcher to the mix which would lessen the stress on the bullpen. 

That team would have a real shot! And if Means could come back and give us anything, like Morton gave the Astros that one year, then we might even have better odds.

I certainly am totally against wasting this year on exploration/experiments. We have too much talent to be that negligent. Plus Adley is only here for a limited time, the way things are looking now with our terrible ownership situation. 

Lift off!

[foxfield]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s take GRod out of the prospect rankings.

Holliday is off the table.

So, that leaves you with some kind of combo to Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Basallo, Povich and Hall.  Whatever order you want them in…that’s roughly going to be the rest of the top 10.

That is likely what you are looking at. Would the Os trade 3-4 of those guys for the right starter?  Yea I think so.

Now, the other thing we have to remember is that the Os system is so deep that guys in the 11-15 range could easily be in play too. 
 

The Os absolutely have to thin out some of this depth because it’s going to become a roster issue soon enough. Plus, not all of these guys are going to develop or stay healthy, so you don’t want to see them lose value either.

I agree with everything above.  I just do not believe they need to spend from the top of the list.  Someone mentioned how the Dodgers frequently make people pick from deeper down the list because of how good the depth is.  I think this is what the O's do. 

Obviously they cant keep all of the guys at the top simply because of overlap, but I think they can use one or two, along with those 11-15 or deeper guys and maybe even some guys currently on the roster to add pitching.

That roster crunch is coming, but it doesn't have to be solved by the break.  We all want a TOR pitcher with lots of years left.  The reality is that guy may not be available.  

It would be a mistake to spend talent just to spend.  That would be as erroneous as riding the current roster and keeping everyone down in AAA or lower.

But that is the central challenge.  How can the Orioles allocate that talent in a way that allows them to win today...and tomorrow.

My point is that I believe most of us simply want this worked out faster than the current pace.  But as long as they are playing at the level they are playing we should be a little more patient.

I am not in the Orioles are grossly mismanaging their talent and roster camp.  But I recognize the concerns are real and only going to become more complex.  That is what good organizations want...options.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, HandsomeQuack said:

Per Baseball Reference, Luzardo is controlled through 2026. And I would love for the team to acquire Cease, for the record. But I haven't given any deep thought to whom I would package to make that happen.

Understood. Thanks for the info. With that being the case, I would definitely add Luzardo to the mix of serious targets. Luzardo is lefty which I really like as well, given we don't have any lefty pitchers. Depending on price I may be INCLINED to pull of 2 trades. One for Luzardo and one for Eduardo Rodriguez.

I just don't believe in wasting opportunities. We have one this year, I hope we take advantage of it.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't think that the team as CURRENTLY constructed has a snowballs chance in Hedes of winning a World Series. Heck, to me it would be a miracle if we could win a SINGLE post season series with this starting staff.

However, by season's end as Gunnar grows and Grayson grows and develops, and Cowsers comes up and takes over LF moving Hays to RF (which would give us elite outfield defense), and if Cano is real. And then if you ADD an ELITE starting pitcher to the mix which would lessen the stress on the bullpen. 

That team would have a real shot! And if Means could come back and give us anything, like Morton gave the Astros that one year, then we might even have better odds.

I certainly am totally against wasting this year on exploration/experiments. We have too much talent to be that negligent. Plus Adley is only here for a limited time, the way things are looking now with our terrible ownership situation. 

Wasting this year on exploration and experiments?   Then you must have been against Mateo.  And what would Cano be if not an experiment?   You used a bunch of ifs.  So here’s a few more.   What if Bradish takes another step forward.  What if GRod can pitch every start like the last one.  What if John Means comes back 100%?   What if bullpen has two elite closers and 4 or 5 solid setup guys?   Let’s see.  
 

Dylan Cease isn’t necessarily the magic pill between winning and losing but he might be a welcomed addition depending on a lot of stuff.

 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I agree with everything above.  I just do not believe they need to spend from the top of the list.  Someone mentioned how the Dodgers frequently make people pick from deeper down the list because of how good the depth is.  I think this is what the O's do. 

Obviously they cant keep all of the guys at the top simply because of overlap, but I think they can use one or two, along with those 11-15 or deeper guys and maybe even some guys currently on the roster to add pitching.

That roster crunch is coming, but it doesn't have to be solved by the break.  We all want a TOR pitcher with lots of years left.  The reality is that guy may not be available.  

It would be a mistake to spend talent just to spend.  That would be as erroneous as riding the current roster and keeping everyone down in AAA or lower.

But that is the central challenge.  How can the Orioles allocate that talent in a way that allows them to win today...and tomorrow.

My point is that I believe most of us simply want this worked out faster than the current pace.  But as long as they are playing at the level they are playing we should be a little more patient.

I am not in the Orioles are grossly mismanaging their talent and roster camp.  But I recognize the concerns are real and only going to become more complex.  That is what good organizations want...options.

Yea, I tend to agree it doesn’t have to come from the top although I do wonder how you define “the top”.

Im not moving Holliday for any realistic deal out there.  GRod isn’t going anywhere either.

But a few of Cowser, Westburg, Hall, Kjerstad and Ortiz?  In the right deal, sure.

To be honest, after the top guys, I think the next guys I would prefer to keep are Mayo and Basallo.

All of that being said, I think we need to remember how deep this system is and maybe our 18th guy is a top 10 guy in most systems. And perhaps this is what you are eluding to and I think that’s accurate.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Sports Guy

[btdart20]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

That roster crunch is coming, but it doesn't have to be solved by the break.  We all want a TOR pitcher with lots of years left.  The reality is that guy may not be available.  

It would be a mistake to spend talent just to spend.  That would be as erroneous as riding the current roster and keeping everyone down in AAA or lower.

Agreed.  Keep chopping wood.  Make decisions as needed/they come.  Take advantage of the options we have.  Depth isn't the enemy, it's an ally if used correctly.

[Frobby]

52 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Were either Finley or Harnish top 100? 

So far as I now, top 100 prospect lists didn’t exist in those years.  In any event, Finley, Harnisch and Schilling had all played a couple of years in the majors when we traded them, so they wouldn’t have been on a prospect list at the time.  

Edit: BA’s lists date back to 1990.  Neither Finley nor Harnisch was eligible then, having debuted and played enough in the bigs to lose prospect status.  Schilling may have been eligible.  
 

Edited May 2, 2023 by Frobby