Ohtani Rental?

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People keep saying this..what exactly do you think he’s worth? He’s a great player but it’s 2 months. You are only going to get so Much. 2 top 100 guys and another guy who has been top 50 within the last year is a lot to get back for 2 months of a player.

Put it another way…I bet we can get Bellinger and Gioloto for less than that.

I get that Othani is better than both but again, it’s 2 months. 
 

I guess you never know what some team is desperate to do but that would be a really hard offer to beat.

Spot-on. If there's another team that wants to burn their prospect capital for two months of Ohtani, go for it. The O's have both quality and quantity that no other team in baseball outside of LAD can compare. I suppose that a team like Milwaukee could deplete their farm for the two months of him but I think the game has shifted some with how prospects are valued. 

Bellinger is an interesting target. At first glance I am not sure how much he makes sense with all of our other lefty hitters (and yes I realize that Ohtani is LH but Bellinger isn't in the same universe as Ohtani) but he's another guy that can play the OF and 1B and we know the O's love positional flexibility. That's an intriguing suggestion. 

 

[Malike]

The Angels are in a great position, really. They aren't getting rid of Ohtani unless someone goes nuts for him and offers the farm. If he's traded, the biggest draw on earth is gone, if he's there, people are going to show up to see him play. They aren't taking middling prospects for Ohtani.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Sydnor said:

I understand the sentiment, and I don’t think it will happen, but if Elias did trade Kjerstad or Cowser, I could at least understand the move. It just depends on how they forecast things. Mayo can probably play RF as well as Kjerstad, so if you think Bradfield is a fast mover, then you could envision a Cowser/Bradfield/Mayo outfield, or maybe they want to keep Hays or Mullins or Santander. Or maybe they really value Fabian and think he’ll be up in 2 years and he’ll be in the outfield. Westburg looked fine in the outfield when I saw him play it in Norfolk, so maybe they like Westburg in LF or RF long term with Henderson/Holliday/Ortiz on the dirt. I’ll reiterate I don’t think they’ll trade for Ohtani, so it doesn’t really matter, but I do think it’s fun to talk about. I also think it’s a bold move that could pay off without crippling the franchise.

I agree it is fun for me to talk about trades as well. But I think Mayo projects to be one of our best bats and so does Kjerstad (maybe our best/most talented hitter). I have no interest in trading either for two months of ANY player Barry Bonds resurrected in his prime, Babe Ruth, Mantle, Griffey Jr, whoever. 

IMO Ohtani in all of his greatness for two months plus the post season is not worth 6+ years of guys who could be special difference making middle of the order hitters. If you want to trade Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, etc, that's one thing, IMO we can replace those guys with similar talent. When you start talking about the potentially special ones - Holliday, Kjerstad, Henderson, Mayo (maybe Cowser) that's a no no for me.

If the Rays/Rangers get him for a comparable package of prospects, that's fine. They will beat us this year but we will have the advantage for the next several. 

I love Ohtani, but I don't want him that bad.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Spot-on. If there's another team that wants to burn their prospect capital for two months of Ohtani, go for it. The O's have both quality and quantity that no other team in baseball outside of LAD can compare. I suppose that a team like Milwaukee could deplete their farm for the two months of him but I think the game has shifted some with how prospects are valued. 

Bellinger is an interesting target. At first glance I am not sure how much he makes sense with all of our other lefty hitters (and yes I realize that Ohtani is LH but Bellinger isn't in the same universe as Ohtani) but he's another guy that can play the OF and 1B and we know the O's love positional flexibility. That's an intriguing suggestion. 

 

I wouldn’t trade for a positional guy at this point.  Just using the example. Othani is like getting 2 players. Teams aren’t going to give up multiple top 50 guys for a rental when they can get 80% of that value for far less.

I mean, what if Othani’s blister issue keeps popping up? 
 

 

[tntoriole]

6 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

To be honest, I know for the last 20- 25+ years the Yankees and Red Sox have dominated the sport, but I honestly believe that era is over. I do a lot of futures/forecasting work in the business that I am in. I just don't see how you can reasonably project a great future right now for either one given how the dynamics of the sport have changed.

There are multiple factors at work, that neither team had to contend with for part of if not most of their runs of dominance (World Series wins).

1) Neither is at the top of the food chain from a fiscal perspective anymore. When the Yanks were winning World Series in the late 90s- early 2000's the Rays weren't a thing, and the Orioles and Blue Jays were in disarray. That is not likely to ever be the case again (at least not into the projectable future). In the Red Sox case, they can be outbid now for top FA's by teams like the Padres, Mets, Rangers, and Dodgers, they never had so many financial competitors to contend with. There weren't as many wealthy owners when they were making the bulk of their runs.

2) Neither team has a good farm system. While those things can change in a couple of years, it is not likely that either franchise would be willing to entertain any kind of rebuild in order to position themselves with maximum elite talent (the kind the Rays and Orioles currently posses). Now that the Orioles have an elite development system (at least for position players) the Red Sox nor Yankees will be able to enjoy any kind of competitive advantage in this area in the near future.

3) Both teams have aging, expensive, mediocre rosters. There is no easy fix to this. Because if you get rid of all of the older guys, you have to have players to replace them with. No team in the current economic structure of the sport can afford to go all free agent (not even the Mets... well maybe them?) Even if the Red Sox were say to sign an elite pitcher in the off season, they are certainly not 1 elite starter away from being as good as the Rays or O's.

4) Both franchises (especially the Red Sox) are trapped in the space of "in between". They are not bad enough to be able to obtain elite players through the draft/lottery system. But they are not good enough to be a serious World Series contender. Plus they are in markets (especially NY) where it is really hard to sell a rebuild. But they are almost going to be forced into some sort of one (especially the Red Sox who have a GM on the hot seat).

5) Finally, for the projectable future, there is a serious talent gap between the Red Sox and Yanks and the Rays and O's. No one or two players/big time FA's can make up for that. (I'm not sure that the Red Sox can even afford or outbid for two top FAs in a given season.) 

In short, everything that goes up must eventually come down. It's inevitable.

I agree with most of this!! Excellent post.  The only way teams now can have runs of playoff and WS appearances is to build the core from the draft -Houston, Tampa Bay etc.

The Yankees can do things other teams cannot do … my real fear us they can Cashman and steal Elias. 
 

When I grew up, the Yankees were awful .. Ralph Houk, Horace Clarke last place awful. The Red Sox won in 67 and had competitive teams and WS appearance in the 1970s.

The Orioles and the As were the dynasties.  But yes, everything is different now!! 

[tntoriole]

13 minutes ago, Malike said:

The Angels are in a great position, really. They aren't getting rid of Ohtani unless someone goes nuts for him and offers the farm. If he's traded, the biggest draw on earth is gone, if he's there, people are going to show up to see him play. They aren't taking middling prospects for Ohtani.

Then they will get exactly one draft pick.  They are in zero position to play hardball but they are the Angels. 
 

[banks703]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I wouldn’t trade for a positional guy at this point.  Just using the example. Othani is like getting 2 players. Teams aren’t going to give up multiple top 50 guys for a rental when they can get 80% of that value for far less.

I mean, what if Othani’s blister issue keeps popping up? 
 

 

Yup, that's fair. I do wonder though if Ohtani is just ready to get out of there and the blister just conveniently keeps creeping up on him. 

I don't think the O's will seriously pursue him but (and you can say this about him with any team) he really does fit perfectly into what the O's need. TOR guy as a Pitcher with big power as a hitter. 

In a playoff series against Ohtani, Wells and Braddish (and possibly Means if he's healthy and throwing like John Means before the TJ) with the O's lineup with Ohtani in it, I don't know that there is a stronger team in all of baseball. Maybe Atlanta top to bottom but the O's are right there with them. 

I don't think they will and I don't think they should but Ohtani legitimately could put the O's over the top. 

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Then they will get exactly one draft pick.  They are in zero position to play hardball but they are the Angels. 
 

They have as much a chance of signing him as any team, probably better depending on what they do in the off-season. He doesn't want to be in the limelight, he wants to be on the west coast and he wants to be on a winning team. If he goes anywhere it's an overpay by a desperate team and would be a stupid move for most teams to mortgage the future for this year. What teams are going to do that, that are currently in contention?

[dzorange]

On 7/16/2023 at 10:38 AM, TopGunnar said:

I don’t want to kill anybodys dreams but I’d say the odds we trade for Ohtani are less than 1%. Unless, it’s a package that includes a few prospects from our 10-20 range. 

What is Elias could base a package around what he got in return at last year's deadline (Seth Johnson, Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich)? Couple of those plus a back end top-100 position prospect.

Regardless, this is just fantasy booking and it won't happen anyways.

Edited July 17, 2023 by dzorange

[banks703]

22 minutes ago, dzorange said:

What is Elias could base a package around what he got in return at last year's deadline (Seth Johnson, Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich)? Couple of those plus a back end top-100 position prospect.

Regardless, this is just fantasy booking and it won't happen anyways.

I'm really high on Seth Johnson. I hope that they don't move him as he's getting back from TJ. 

[cheecks]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

The Angels are in a great position, really. They aren't getting rid of Ohtani unless someone goes nuts for him and offers the farm. If he's traded, the biggest draw on earth is gone, if he's there, people are going to show up to see him play. They aren't taking middling prospects for Ohtani.

Why wouldn't the Angels take the best offer available? If no team "goes nuts" for Ohtani, you think they'll just keep Ohtani and lose him for nothing in the offseason?

[Billy F-Face3]

40 minutes ago, dzorange said:

What is Elias could base a package around what he got in return at last year's deadline (Seth Johnson, Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich)? Couple of those plus a back end top-100 position prospect.

Regardless, this is just fantasy booking and it won't happen anyways.

Justin Armbruester is probably going to draw significant interest from other teams as well. More so than McDermott will, I think. 

[Malike]

1 minute ago, cheecks said:

Why wouldn't the Angels take the best offer available? If no team "goes nuts" for Ohtani, you think they'll just keep Ohtani and lose him for nothing in the offseason?

The hit to their attendance alone with Ohtani gone is big. They have no real pressure to trade him, especially, since they are a likely favorite to re-sign him this off-season. We're talking about one of the most talented players in the history of baseball, you think they want Kyle Gibson and Joey Ortiz/Jordan Westburg if that is the best offer they get?

Teams aren't as dumb as they used to be. You don't trade 18 years of production for a 2-month rental, the game has evolved.

[tntoriole]

46 minutes ago, Malike said:

They have as much a chance of signing him as any team, probably better depending on what they do in the off-season. He doesn't want to be in the limelight, he wants to be on the west coast and he wants to be on a winning team. If he goes anywhere it's an overpay by a desperate team and would be a stupid move for most teams to mortgage the future for this year. What teams are going to do that, that are currently in contention?

I disagree that the Angels have “as much a chance” as any.  I think the Angels have virtually zero chance of resigning him. Angels are losers, they have not had a winning record since 2015 despite having both Trout and Ohtani.  They finished over 30 games behind Houston .. twice.. with both stars.  Their organization is a mess and they are not competitive with Houston, Texas or Seattle over next five years imho.
 

I think Ohtani is sick of losing and will not risk more of the same.  If he does, then he can be the finest player in history never to have a winning record.  
 

No, he will not be an Angel imho.  As to what teams would pay him stupid money and stupid contract?  Well everyone knows who those organizations are. 

[baltfan]

If I am the Angels the good thing about trading Ohtani to the Orioles is you know you aren’t trading him to a place he is likely to like better and want to stay.  Still gives them hope to resign.