Ohtani Rental?

[Bemorewins]

32 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Last series we out scored them 15-12.  Why wouldn’t  we be able to beat them?  Seems we match up pretty well.  We have had a talent infusion since.  I like our chances.  

Are you talking about the Braves? 

If so, are you saying that our team would be favored to beat them in the World Series as things presently stand?

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Ohtani probably improves the Orioles’ chances of winning the World Series this year by about 3% (3 percentage points). By Fangraphs they are currently 3.1%, but IMO Fangraphs is low on the Orioles so it’s probably more like 6% currently (about what they have for the Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays right now). The Dodgers and Rays are at 12%. I don’t adding Ohtani puts us on par with their rosters, but if you’re being really generous maybe it’s more like a bump of 3-6%. 

Do 6+ years of control for multiple top 100 prospects improve our chances of winning a World Series by more than 3-6% over those 6+ years?  I’d say they almost certainly do. 

I think the Sigbot should be very busy figuring this stuff out with the entire trade deadline. Got to take inventory and identify and evaluate which players in baseball give us the best chances to win the World Series. 

Personally I think Ohtani is the missing piece as far as talent and skills go. The only concerns I have are the team chemistry and the financial implications of bringing him in. How does a Japanese star who react to being traded to the East Coast, in a clubhouse with people he's unfamiliar with, featuring players from all around the world? And how do those players feel about him and his salary while they're still making close to league minimum? That would be a consideration.

 

Besides all of that, to even bring Ohtani to Baltimore would require considerable logistics planning so that he is able to have the privacy he wants, and a comfortable home to stay in. A guy like Ohtani needs good people he can be comfortable around and people he can find ways to build good relationships with as his teammates. You have to imagine that for being as good of a player that he is, Ohtani probably has a very high threshold and standard for what he respects in other players. Great players want to be around other great players. 

 

If I think that Ohtani is the key to the World Series in the best record the Orioles have had since the seasons they went to the League Championship Series, then I would have no qualms about trading Cowser. The organization still has Kjerstad, Fabian, Beavers Rhodes, Bradfield, Stowers, Haskin, etc coming up right behind him if they need Outfielders in 2-3 years. (If those players don't get traded.)

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think winning a title is the highest priority for the organization.

I definitely don’t believe it is for the owner/leader of the organization.

[emmett16]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Are you talking about the Braves? 

If so, are you saying that our team would be favored to beat them in the World Series as things presently stand?

Favored? No.  Going off how we played them in the series earlier this year, do we match up and have a chance? Yes.  
 

We outscored them and could have swept them.  There are no certainties in baseball.  But the team as will be constructed in October very certainly has a chance to beat them.  
 

 

[Baltimorecuse]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think winning a title is the highest priority for the organization.

I wanted to make sure I understood your position even though you've been clear about this in past posts.  So why do you still root for them if you think they aren't interested in winning.  

[emmett16]

23 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Hmmm...it seems when I step to Edit a post, the font color change tool isn't present.    Take 2 for clarity:

I'm sure the Rays won't bid if he comes to market.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10082893-shohei-ohtani-trade-rumors-rays-expected-to-call-angels-ahead-of-2023-mlb-deadline

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I wanted to make sure I understood your position even though you've been clear about this in past posts.  So why do you still root for them if you think they aren't interested in winning.  

Evidently I wasn't clear.

I did not say they were not interested in winning.

I said I don't think winning a title is their top priority.

Do you think the owner cares more about winning a world series title or his profits?

[emmett16]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Evidently I wasn't clear.

I did not say they were not interested in winning.

I said I don't think winning a title is their top priority.

Do you think the owner cares more about winning a world series title or his profits?

I think that’s a fair question.  But at this stage of the game winning the WS becomes a gamble that can increase his profits and fortunes long term.   With all the savings to date, there has to be a little something in the coffers for a rainy day gamblers lottery ticket.  I havnt looked at the economics of making playoffs or even winning WS, but I imagine the cash/investment influx is substantial.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I think that’s a fair question.  But at this stage of the game winning the WS becomes a gamble that can increase his profits and fortunes long term.   With all the savings to date, there has to be a little something in the coffers for a rainy day gamblers lottery ticket.  I havnt looked at the economics of making playoffs or even winning WS, but I imagine the cash/investment influx is substantial.  

Sure, I agree he'd prefer to win.

Winning means more fans in the stands, more merch sold, higher ratings.

But at the end of the day he's wouldn't trade the profits for a ring.

[Baltimorecuse]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Evidently I wasn't clear.

I did not say they were not interested in winning.

I said I don't think winning a title is their top priority.

Do you think the owner cares more about winning a world series title or his profits?

We've had this discussion before.  I don't think Elias would be here if Angelos wasn't committed to winning it all.  As I've said before I'm not privy to any special insights.  

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Favored? No.  Going off how we played them in the series earlier this year, do we match up and have a chance? Yes.  
 

We outscored them and could have swept them.  There are no certainties in baseball.  But the team as will be constructed in October very certainly has a chance to beat them.  
 

 

Anybody has a chance on any given day in professional sports. The odds are another which is usually influenced by talent + injuries. They have the best record in the sport now by a good bit and they are missing Wright (a 20 game winner last season) and Fried maybe their best starting pitcher.

I'm not how many objective observers would take us in a series over them as is, let alone if they get those two back. They have a tremendous advantage in the starting pitching department, plus as good as our offense is, their's is even better.

I'm not going to extrapolate much from a regular season series at the beginning of May. It can not be denied that they have a serious talent advantage. 

It would definitely be a serious upset if we were to beat them in the Fall.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

We've had this discussion before.  I don't think Elias would be here if Angelos wasn't committed to winning it all.  As I've said before I'm not privy to any special insights.  

And I don't think then Elias turns down a GM job.

How many owners do you think have winning a title as their top priority?

I can think of maybe four and we are laughing at three of them.

[Billy F-Face3]

15 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

 I havnt looked at the economics of making playoffs or even winning WS, but I imagine the cash/investment influx is substantial.  

Playoffs, and especially World Series playoffs with home firld advantage = profits. The more home games there are, the more money the team makes. It's simple.

[geschinger]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I don't think then Elias turns down a GM job.

How many owners do you think have winning a title as their top priority?

I can think of maybe four and we are laughing at three of them.

I think this may be confusing virtue signaling that one has winning as the top priority vs actually having winning as the top priority.

Organizations led by ownership that truly has winning titles as its top priority would behave a lot more like Houston than for example Cohen's approach in NY.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, geschinger said:

I think this may be confusing virtue signaling that one has winning as the top priority vs actually having winning as the top priority.

Organizations led by ownership that truly has winning titles as its top priority would behave a lot more like Houston than for example Cohen's approach in NY.

Winning a title, say for yourself as a two time cancer survivor or for your ill Father-in-Law is not the same thing as trying to build a sustainable model for winning in the hope that trips to the playoffs lead to an eventual title.

Houston is franchise that cares about turning a profit, that is one of their goals.

Cohen doesn't worry about turning a profit.  I don't think Seidler cares about turning a profit.  I don't think either are super worried about what the team looks like in five years.  (although the Mets really aren't in that bad of shape)