Ohtani Rental?

[Moose Milligan]

I'll also add that while I think the Rays certainly have the prospect capital to swing an Ohtani trade, I don't see them being able to retain him as a free agent.  I don't see how an international superstar and arguably the face of MLB would settle for a team (albeit a fantastic team) playing in a dump like the Trop and in a 2nd rate MLB city. 

That's the thing, I think any team that trades for him is going to do whatever it takes to not let him get to free agency.  

[StottyByNature]

I would not go crazy on an Ohtani trade just to keep him out of the AL East.  And I wouldn't be surprised if some of this is simply posturing by the Rays to try to drive the price up.  I'd be shocked if they gave up a bunch of prospects for a guy that won't be there long-term.

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.  I think Ohtani will fetch somewhere between the Machado package and the Soto package.  As for the Orioles, if it's closer to a Machado-like package (I'm thinking one top-100 guy and a couple of guys in the 8-15 range of our farm system) then I'd consider it.  But I wouldn't do more than that and I'm guessing that won't be enough.  You have to see this as a rental only and frankly I wouldn't want the O's to give out a mega-contract to someone entering his age-30 season.  

I think we are likely to see us make a move for a reliever or two and probably guys who will have a year or two more of control.  I'd love to get Dylan Cease but I would guess it would be hard to settle on a fair price since the Sox view him as a bonafide ace while his results this year have not been that.

[Orioles Jim]

I mean, hell yes I do that

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Orioles Jim said:

I mean, hell yes I do that

Hell yes you do that, I think any of us would, too.

I think the Angels would hang up the phone laughing though.

[Billy F-Face3]

Something I have been thinking about and wondering...

Since Ohtani's interpreter is contracted to the Angels, would any team who wants his interpreter have to also trade something in order to get the services of his interpreter too? Ohtani and his interpreter have been together since he was 18 years old, and he does more than just interpret between languages. He also studies film with him, throws baseballs, and sometimes functions as one of Ohtani's bullpen catchers, to go along with being a mediator between Ohtani and the Manager. There is a very high level of professional trust and familiarity there. So just would it take to acquire the interpreter to come with Ohtani?

 

[cboemmeljr]

For what it's worth, here's my opinion.

While I feel for Artie Moreno who is caught between a rock and a hard place because if he loses Ohtani to free agency, he has nothing but if he approves a trade and Ohtani gets a ring as a rental or even if he doesn't get one, his legacy will be known as the owner who traded Ohtani away.

Any trade for Shohei must include a window to negotiate a new deal.  I wonder though, is Ohtani's talent so great at present that he is too expensive an acquisition, even for Uncle Stevie?

Ohtani chose the Angels and the west coast over the east cost so even though the marketing value in New York, especially, is huge, does he want that pressure.

As for the Orioles going all in in a trade is am a HARD NO.  I don't think that three prospects will be enough.  I personally feel that making the trade would undo much of what has been done over the past few years.  Making the trade does not and will not guarantee a ring, especially this year.

I am in now way comparing Shohei to Chris Davis in ANY way baseball wise, but that contract affected the Orioles financially with future payments so we could be on the hook for years to come if the estimates/speculation of what it will cost to get Ohtani in FA.  Keep in mind that we are on the hook to a small degree for Bobby Bonilla day; yes we pay him something each year, although I don't know the amount.

[Number5]

15 minutes ago, cboemmeljr said:

While I feel for Artie Moreno who is caught between a rock and a hard place because if he loses Ohtani to free agency, he has nothing but if he approves a trade and Ohtani gets a ring as a rental or even if he doesn't get one, his legacy will be known as the owner who traded Ohtani away.

Yeah, tough situation for Moreno.  Seems to me I read that Ohtani has come out and said that he regrets not having done his homework to find out how bad a team the Angels are before signing with them.  That doesn't bode well for their chances of re-signing him.  So their options seem to be either trade him now or let him walk after the season.  As I understand it, LAA is likely to get a comp pick after round 1 in the draft should Ohtani sign elsewhere.  So the floor for any trade offer must be better than that.  I'm just not so sure that the offer needs to be such a vast amount greater than that, as many proposed trades on the internet seem to be.  It seems to me that the worst thing for the Angels would be to just let Moreno walk and get that draft pick, so I think that the closer we get to the deadline, the more reasonable the Angels' asking price will likely become - unless there is a big bidding war (which I kinda doubt).  No?

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, StottyByNature said:

I would not go crazy on an Ohtani trade just to keep him out of the AL East.  And I wouldn't be surprised if some of this is simply posturing by the Rays to try to drive the price up.  I'd be shocked if they gave up a bunch of prospects for a guy that won't be there long-term.

It will be very interesting to see how this plays out.  I think Ohtani will fetch somewhere between the Machado package and the Soto package.  As for the Orioles, if it's closer to a Machado-like package (I'm thinking one top-100 guy and a couple of guys in the 8-15 range of our farm system) then I'd consider it.  But I wouldn't do more than that and I'm guessing that won't be enough.  You have to see this as a rental only and frankly I wouldn't want the O's to give out a mega-contract to someone entering his age-30 season.  

I think we are likely to see us make a move for a reliever or two and probably guys who will have a year or two more of control.  I'd love to get Dylan Cease but I would guess it would be hard to settle on a fair price since the Sox view him as a bonafide ace while his results this year have not been that.

IMO there is a sizeable difference between the Machado and Soto packages. Having said that Ohtani would have to command more than Machado in a comparable deal because of his immense more value as a two way player. He is a better hitter than Machado but doesn't give you the defensive value, but gives you tremendous value as an ace/true #1 type pitcher. The Soto package is not comparable because of the years of control that Soto had when dealt. If Ohtani was being traded with 2 and 1/2 years left on his deal, the Angles would have probably gotten back a historic/unprecedented package.

On to your other point regarding Cease... I was higher on Cease when the season started, but not really that much right now. 2022 Cease is MUCH > than 2023 Cease. Unless, the O's believe there is something there that they can tweak/fix to turn him back into that player, I would pass. He hasn't been a "bonafide ace" this year at all. More of a decent/above average 5 and dive guy than anything.

[cboemmeljr]

43 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Yeah, tough situation for Moreno.  Seems to me I read that Ohtani has come out and said that he regrets not having done his homework to find out how bad a team the Angels are before signing with them.  That doesn't bode well for their chances of re-signing him.  So their options seem to be either trade him now or let him walk after the season.  As I understand it, LAA is likely to get a comp pick after round 1 in the draft should Ohtani sign elsewhere.  So the floor for any trade offer must be better than that.  I'm just not so sure that the offer needs to be such a vast amount greater than that, as many proposed trades on the internet seem to be.  It seems to me that the worst thing for the Angels would be to just let Moreno walk and get that draft pick, so I think that the closer we get to the deadline, the more reasonable the Angels' asking price will likely become - unless there is a big bidding war (which I kinda doubt).  No?

Yes, as we get closer to the deadline, the asking price in prospects may lower, but keep in mind Moreno, as the owner, must justify the return for trading Ohtani.

As far as the Orioles renting Shohei, I simply don't think the juice is worth the squeeze.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hell yes you do that, I think any of us would, too.

I think the Angels would hang up the phone laughing though.

I don’t think they’d hang up the phone.  

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Something I have been thinking about and wondering...

Since Ohtani's interpreter is contracted to the Angels, would any team who wants his interpreter have to also trade something in order to get the services of his interpreter too? Ohtani and his interpreter have been together since he was 18 years old, and he does more than just interpret between languages. He also studies film with him, throws baseballs, and sometimes functions as one of Ohtani's bullpen catchers, to go along with being a mediator between Ohtani and the Manager. There is a very high level of professional trust and familiarity there. So just would it take to acquire the interpreter to come with Ohtani?

 

I'd just demand his services come with Ohtani. If they want to use his interpreter as leverage to sweeten the pot, I'm hanging up the phone because it doesn't sound like they were ever serious about dealing him. Does that guy have ANY value to the franchise if Ohtani isn't there?

[ChosenOne21]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hell yes you do that, I think any of us would, too.

I think the Angels would hang up the phone laughing though.

I don't think they do that trade, but I don't think it's a laughable offer either.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, ChosenOne21 said:

I don't think they do that trade, but I don't think it's a laughable offer either.

Do the reverse:  if we had Ohtani and another team called offering us that package, what would your reaction be?

[drdelaware]

If the O's decided to give up the farm for him (they won't) they'd lose the flexibility at the DH position.  Might seem like nothing but with a loaded roster having the DH spot for AB's available more than once a week is no small issue.

[FlipTheBird]

1 minute ago, drdelaware said:

If the O's decided to give up the farm for him (they won't) they'd lose the flexibility at the DH position.  Might seem like nothing but with a loaded roster having the DH spot for AB's available more than once a week is no small issue.

I wouldn't fret much, given that the guy they'd be plugging into that spot is the single best DH in all of baseball, and it's not close.

That said, I am in "never going to happen" camp on Shohei.