Ohtani Rental?

[jamalshw]

Yeah. Norby is having a solid, but not great year in Norfolk (though he has gotten hotter lately). And D.L. Hall, while still an interesting arm, has lost a LOT of luster. I'm not sure they bring nearly enough to the table alongside Ortiz who would be the centerpiece of the return in the deal in this thread. And going away from Ortiz towards Mountcastle, makes it worse, not better. Ultimately, if you want Ohtani, it's going to take a package led by two of Kjerstad, Mayo and Ortiz along with someone like Hall who has lost some luster but still has upside or maybe someone like McDermott. To get Ohtani, even with our stacked system and even just as a rental, it would have to hurt. Which is why it doesn't make sense for this team. 

[StottyByNature]

8 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I just looked back at their top 30.. they are thin in the OF. I would guess that they would ask for one of Cowser/Kjerstad in a deal with the O's. 

 

Gibson

Kjerstad/Cowser

Norby/Ortiz

Mountcastle

 

The sting of giving up the combo of those prospects would be tough. Again, I don't know if they would even want Norby/Ortiz. I mean you can never have too many middle infielders I guess. Mountcastle makes so much sense for them. 

 

I think if they take Gibson, you do some combination of that deal. 

 

 

If the Angels trade Ohtani it means they are giving up on the season.  It makes no sense for them to take Gibson - they would much rather have more prospects.

[StottyByNature]

15 minutes ago, interloper said:

There's gonna be an awful lot of coping going on when this trade very obviously does not happen. 

I don't begrudge anyone for indulging in some fantasies - I do it all the time. But some folks really seem to think there's a possibility of this occurring. I think if you've followed Elias' moves and mindset over the last 5 years, you understand that this is not even in the remote realm of something he would engage in. 

This is correct.  We are at the very beginning of our window, there is no sense in mortgaging what could be an excellent 5 - 7 year run for a 2 month rental.  This is the type of move you make at the end of a competitive window.  

That doesn't mean I think we should stand pat, but the move(s) we will see should have more than just this year in mind.  I think it will be a reliever that will be here another year or two.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

This is correct.  We are at the very beginning of our window, there is no sense in mortgaging what could be an excellent 5 - 7 year run for a 2 month rental.  This is the type of move you make at the end of a competitive window.  

That doesn't mean I think we should stand pat, but the move(s) we will see should have more than just this year in mind.  I think it will be a reliever that will be here another year or two.

Yeah. I think there's a very good chance that any player we do acquire will have at least another year of control, like the Irvin trade. I'm not saying a pure rental is out of the realm of possibility for Elias, just that I think he'll try to find underrated value with more control than engage in these hyped-up star player rental scenarios. 

[ScGO's]

The Angels leverage isn't as high as many thing.  First we start with the equivalent of an extra draft pick because that's all the Angels are getting if they keep him and he walks.  Now Ohtoni is the best player on the planet, so every playoff team would be willing to part with the equivalent of an extra draft pick, so it will take a decent package to outbid the other contenders.

Teams will need to be willing to pay the rest of Ohtoni's  season salary which is still around 10 million. Not a problem for most, but there will be some playoff contenders who don't neccessairly want to add the extra payroll

Teams also have to consider how much will they be willing to give up for 2 months of Ohtoni.  The Orioles are deep, so something like Norby, Hall, and Ortiz may look thin to us, but that could be the top 3 prospects in some of these other playoff teams' systems, and since he's not coming back next year, does a team really want to forfeit some of their better pieces for the near future?

The Angels maybe interested in a bit of quantity if they can't get someone's top prospect. I wonder if something like Ortiz, Norby, Hall, Stowers, Denoyer, Rom, Wagner gets it done

[foxfield]

15 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

This is correct.  We are at the very beginning of our window, there is no sense in mortgaging what could be an excellent 5 - 7 year run for a 2 month rental.  This is the type of move you make at the end of a competitive window.  

That doesn't mean I think we should stand pat, but the move(s) we will see should have more than just this year in mind.  I think it will be a reliever that will be here another year or two.

This.

I do expect Elias to check the tires so to speak.  The Orioles really are in a unique spot.  Even if the call is to up the price for someone else.

[Sydnor]

19 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I have no interest in giving away Kjerstad nor Cowser for 2 months of Ohtani.

I understand the sentiment, and I don’t think it will happen, but if Elias did trade Kjerstad or Cowser, I could at least understand the move. It just depends on how they forecast things. Mayo can probably play RF as well as Kjerstad, so if you think Bradfield is a fast mover, then you could envision a Cowser/Bradfield/Mayo outfield, or maybe they want to keep Hays or Mullins or Santander. Or maybe they really value Fabian and think he’ll be up in 2 years and he’ll be in the outfield. Westburg looked fine in the outfield when I saw him play it in Norfolk, so maybe they like Westburg in LF or RF long term with Henderson/Holliday/Ortiz on the dirt. I’ll reiterate I don’t think they’ll trade for Ohtani, so it doesn’t really matter, but I do think it’s fun to talk about. I also think it’s a bold move that could pay off without crippling the franchise.

[Number5]

I think we are setting ourselves up to be outraged by what another team pays for Ohtani.  I just don't think a 2-month rental of any player is worth the packages that some are proposing.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

[Just Regular]

Its certainly fair to prefer any high value package to be aimed at one of the Mariners (some of what me makes think that will happen is they want to open a chair for their Ohtani bid), or somebody like Tarik Skubal if he keeps it up and Harris moves him.

We'll see what Grayson shows in his 3 turns before deciding time arrives for Elias, but each positive Bradish-Wells-Kremer rotation cycle makes it look more like BAL's 2024 and on situation may be better than you probably would have forecast half a season ago, and BAL's 2023 situation a bigger opportunity than probably anyone dared dream.

[banks703]

14 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

The Angels leverage isn't as high as many think

Right

 

Some of ya'll aren't looking AT ALL at what the Angels prospect pipeline looks like right now. There are ZERO first base prospects in their top 30. Zero. Mountcastle isn't a guy that has no value. Ya'll are nuts. 

 

Take Gibson/Irvin out of the conversation. If you think that ANY team is going to beat something like Norby/Ortiz, Hall, Mountcastle + for Ohtani, you're crazy. Ohtani is likely headed to either LAD, SEA or NYM unless a surprise team comes out of nowehere. Literally every team in the league who is looking to bolster their roster for a playoff run knows this. 

 

The Angels have two top 100 prospects who are both catchers, ranked 29 and 67 right now. 

 

Who might be in on Ohtani? 

• The Astros have one top 100 guy in OF Drew Gilbert (71)
• The Jays have one top 100 guy in LHP Ricky Tiedemann (31)
• The Brewers have five guys in the top 100 in OF Chourio (2), OF Sal Frelick (17), C Jeferson Quero (74), RHP Jacob Misiorowski (87) and IF/OF Tyler Black (98)
• The Dodgers have eight guys in the top 100 in C Diego Cartaya (19), IF/OF Michael Busch (34), C Dalton Rushing (47), RHP Gavin Stone (49), OF Andy Pages (54), RHP Emmet Sheehan (73), RHP Ryan Pepiot (78) and RHP Nick Frasso (98)
• The Giants have four top 100 prospects in LHP Kyle Harrison (11), SS Marco Luciano (15), OF Luis Matos (68) and LHP Carson Wisenhunt (95)
• The Mariners have four top 100 guys in C Harry Ford (25), SS Cole Young (56), RHP Bryan Woo (92) and OF Gabriel Gonzalez (96)
• The Phils have three top 100 guys in RHP Andrew Painter (8), RHP Mich Abel (42) and OF Justin Crawfod (84)
• The Rangers have five top 100 guys in OF Evan Carter (6), RHP Owen White (44), MIF Luisangel Acuna (45), RHP Brock Porter (61) and RHP Jack Leiter (90)
• The Rays have four in IF Junior Caminero (14), SS Carson Williams (23), IF Curtis Mead (32) and 1B Kyle Manzardo (38)
• The Yankees have two in OF Jasson Dominguez (41) and C Austin Wells (79)
• The Twins have two top 100 in SS Brooks Lee (18) and OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (60) 
• The Guardians have five in RHP Gavin Williams (10), OF George Valera (28), C Bo Naylor (37), RHP Daniel Espino  (51) and IF Braya Rocchio (52)
• The DBacks have three in SS Jordan Lawler (5), OF Drew Jones (13) and RHP Brandon Pfaadt (21)
• The Braves have one in RHP AJ Smith Shawver (64)
• The Mets have three top 100 prospects in C Kevin Parada (40), SS Ronny Mauricio (58) and SS Jett Williams (83)
• The Orioles have eight top 100 guys in SS Jackson Holliday (1), OF Colton Cowser (12), INF Jordan Westburg (30), OF Heston Kjerstad 36, IF Joey Ortiz (63), 2B/OF Connor Norby (66), 3B Coby Mayo (75) and C Sam Basallo (97)

 

It would seem that if the O's do pursue Ohtani, the stiffest comp may come from the Dodgers as they have the same number of prospects in the top 100 though the O's guys are rated appreciably higher depending on the outlet. 

 

 

Ortiz/Norby

Hall

Mountcastle 

+ Plus +

[foxfield]

4 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Right

 

Some of ya'll aren't looking AT ALL at what the Angels prospect pipeline looks like right now. There are ZERO first base prospects in their top 30. Zero. Mountcastle isn't a guy that has no value. Ya'll are nuts. 

 

Take Gibson/Irvin out of the conversation. If you think that ANY team is going to beat something like Norby/Ortiz, Hall, Mountcastle + for Ohtani, you're crazy. Ohtani is likely headed to either LAD, SEA or NYM unless a surprise team comes out of nowehere. Literally every team in the league who is looking to bolster their roster for a playoff run knows this. 

 

The Angels have two top 100 prospects who are both catchers, ranked 29 and 67 right now. 

 

Who might be in on Ohtani? 

• The Astros have one top 100 guy in OF Drew Gilbert (71)
• The Jays have one top 100 guy in LHP Ricky Tiedemann (31)
• The Brewers have five guys in the top 100 in OF Chourio (2), OF Sal Frelick (17), C Jeferson Quero (74), RHP Jacob Misiorowski (87) and IF/OF Tyler Black (98)
• The Dodgers have eight guys in the top 100 in C Diego Cartaya (19), IF/OF Michael Busch (34), C Dalton Rushing (47), RHP Gavin Stone (49), OF Andy Pages (54), RHP Emmet Sheehan (73), RHP Ryan Pepiot (78) and RHP Nick Frasso (98)
• The Giants have four top 100 prospects in LHP Kyle Harrison (11), SS Marco Luciano (15), OF Luis Matos (68) and LHP Carson Wisenhunt (95)
• The Mariners have four top 100 guys in C Harry Ford (25), SS Cole Young (56), RHP Bryan Woo (92) and OF Gabriel Gonzalez (96)
• The Phils have three top 100 guys in RHP Andrew Painter (8), RHP Mich Abel (42) and OF Justin Crawfod (84)
• The Rangers have five top 100 guys in OF Evan Carter (6), RHP Owen White (44), MIF Luisangel Acuna (45), RHP Brock Porter (61) and RHP Jack Leiter (90)
• The Rays have four in IF Junior Caminero (14), SS Carson Williams (23), IF Curtis Mead (32) and 1B Kyle Manzardo (38)
• The Yankees have two in OF Jasson Dominguez (41) and C Austin Wells (79)
• The Twins have two top 100 in SS Brooks Lee (18) and OF Emmanuel Rodriguez (60) 
• The Guardians have five in RHP Gavin Williams (10), OF George Valera (28), C Bo Naylor (37), RHP Daniel Espino  (51) and IF Braya Rocchio (52)
• The DBacks have three in SS Jordan Lawler (5), OF Drew Jones (13) and RHP Brandon Pfaadt (21)
• The Braves have one in RHP AJ Smith Shawver (64)
• The Mets have three top 100 prospects in C Kevin Parada (40), SS Ronny Mauricio (58) and SS Jett Williams (83)
• The Orioles have eight top 100 guys in SS Jackson Holliday (1), OF Colton Cowser (12), INF Jordan Westburg (30), OF Heston Kjerstad 36, IF Joey Ortiz (63), 2B/OF Connor Norby (66), 3B Coby Mayo (75) and C Sam Basallo (97)

 

It would seem that if the O's do pursue Ohtani, the stiffest comp may come from the Dodgers as they have the same number of prospects in the top 100 though the O's guys are rated appreciably higher depending on the outlet. 

 

 

Ortiz/Norby

Hall

Mountcastle 

+ Plus +

I think this is a pretty well thought out take.  Ohtani is two players and they are both excellent. But it is still just 2 months.  All the same, I don't think the O's seriously enter unless it is in this range or lower...and I should be but probably won't.

[Just Regular]

17 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Some of ya'll aren't looking AT ALL at what the Angels prospect pipeline looks like right now. There are ZERO first base prospects in their top 30. Zero. Mountcastle isn't a guy that has no value. Ya'll are nuts. 

I caught a couple of innings with LAA hometown announcers last week right after the draft, and they were oooohing and aaahing about how polished 1B college bat Nolan Schanuel could be up just as fast as Zach Neto.    It might make Shohei stay if they show him they know how to make the team good.

[banks703]

8 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think this is a pretty well thought out take.  Ohtani is two players and they are both excellent. But it is still just 2 months.  All the same, I don't think the O's seriously enter unless it is in this range or lower...and I should be but probably won't.

I don't think that they will either. It's fun to romanticize it though because of how dynamic Ohtani is and how well he would potentially fit on the O's roster. If you slot in Ohtani at the top of their rotation, with the current versions of Braddish and Wells, the O's and their offense would be as tough an out in the playoffs as there is in baseball right now. I'd probably bat Ohtani leadoff.

Ohtani L

Rustchman S

Santander S

Hays R

Gunnar L

O'Hearn L

Cowser L/Hicks S

Frazier L/Urias R

Westburg R

Against RHP, good luck with that lineup. 

 

I would have a hard time parting with any package of their prospects for only two months of Ohtani. I agree that it doesn't make sense in the grand scheme of things. Now, if they could have a window to negotiate an extension for him, would that change things? Absolutely. If, say, the O's could get him to agree to three more years (and would be willing to give him the $150 million that it'll take) then I think they would have to start considering moving other pieces as well. 

It's a pipedream and I won't be at all disappointed when a deal for Ohtani doesn't happen. 

[Sports Guy]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hell yes you do that, I think any of us would, too.

I think the Angels would hang up the phone laughing though.

People keep saying this..what exactly do you think he’s worth? He’s a great player but it’s 2 months. You are only going to get so Much. 2 top 100 guys and another guy who has been top 50 within the last year is a lot to get back for 2 months of a player.

Put it another way…I bet we can get Bellinger and Gioloto for less than that.

I get that Othani is better than both but again, it’s 2 months. 
 

I guess you never know what some team is desperate to do but that would be a really hard offer to beat.

[banks703]

11 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I caught a couple of innings with LAA hometown announcers last week right after the draft, and they were oooohing and aaahing about how polished 1B college bat Nolan Schanuel could be up just as fast as Zach Neto.    It might make Shohei stay if they show him they know how to make the team good.

He mashes for sure. If Ohtani walks and they get nothing for him, they lose their DH. Mountcastle could slot in there. Moustakas is not going to be there beyond this year.