BP's Orioles Top 11 Prospects

[Baltimoron]

Five-Star Prospects

1. Matt Wieters, C

2. Chris Tillman, RHP

3. Brian Matusz, LHP

Four-Star Prospects

4. Jake Arrieta, RHP

5. Brandon Erbe, RHP

Three-Star Prospects

6. Nolan Reimold, RF

7. David Hernandez, RHP

8. Troy Patton, LHP

Two-Star Prospects

9. Jason Berken, RHP

10. Brandon Snyder, 1B

11. L.J. Hoes, 2B

Just Missed: Xavier Avery, OF; Brad Bergesen, RHP; Kam Mickolio, RHP

Ranking Challenges: Wieters is the obvious top prospect, but the system's incredible pitching depth creates a lot of uncertainty when trying to sort out those ranked behind him; scouts had wide-ranging opinions on the order of Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta, though for most Arrieta ended up one notch below the other two. The unknowns about Patton following shoulder surgery provide a challenge, while the significant talent drop-off towards the bottom leaves the last three spots to be determined solely by personal preference.

Subsription required. link.

[Hank Scorpio]

Wow, Snyder's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay down there.

Ouch!

[BaltimoreFan]

Wow, Snyder's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay down there.

Ouch!

Rowell wasn't even on the "just missed" list. I'm not sure how you can be so high on a 25 year old Reimold, yet so low on a 20 year old Rowell.

[Baltimoron]

Wow, Snyder's waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay down there.

Ouch!

Kevin Goldstein's thoughts on Snyder:

The Good: Snyder's hitting fundamentals are excellent, and he has one of the quicker bats in the system, projectable average power, and an innate feel for contact. He uses all fields and got better as the season wore on, hitting .357/.400/.568 after the All-Star break. The former catcher has taken well to his new position, showing soft hands and much-improved positioning and footwork at first base.

The Bad: While his offensive skills are quite good, there are questions as to whether they'll be enough to make him an everyday first baseman, which he's limited to defensively. At a position where power and patience are prerequisites, Snyder is a free swinger who most project to hit somewhere around 18-22 home runs annually. He's a below-average runner.

...

Perfect World Projection: A solid but unspectacular first baseman in the majors.

[Frobby]

First time I've seen anyone put Berken in the top 10. Did Goldstein explain his thinking here?

I like the comment about "the system's incredible pitching depth." Too bad we don't have position player depth to match. But between the two, I'd rather have the depth be in pitching.

[BaltimoreFan]

I'd say Snyder's absolute ceiling is a premeire DH who can double as a patch-up first baseman.

[Baltimoron]

Thoughts on Berken:

The Good: One scout called Berken "a pitcher's pitcher." He flawlessly spots his 88-91 mph fastball with ease, and consistently gets ahead in the count to set up his best pitch, an above-average changeup that has nice depth and fade. He throws both a curveball and a slider, and both grade as big-league pitches.

The Bad: Berken is what he is, and offers zero projection. He had Tommy John surgery in college and was already 22 years old when drafted, so he's a bit behind on the age/level continuum.

...

Perfect World Projection: He's a back-of-the-rotation workhorse.

[Baltimoron]

The ranking of Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (as of Opening Day 2009)

1. Matt Wieters, C

2. Nick Markakis, RF

3. Adam Jones, CF

4. Chris Tillman, RHP

5. Brian Matusz, LHP

6. Jake Arrieta, RHP

7. Felix Pie, OF

8. Radhames Liz, RHP

9. Brandon Erbe, RHP

10. Nolan Reimold, RF

Markakis doesn't have the kind of power that one normally associates with a star corner outfielder, but he's hardly a slap hitter and does so many other things well to make up for it. He'll only get better going forward, and his long-term contract was an excellent move for Baltimore. Yes, I'm still a big believer in Adam Jones, even moreso after getting a sneak peek at what PECOTA had to say about him. Without giving away the store, I will mention that his four most comparable players listed in Baseball Prospectus 2009 combined for 13 All-Star Game appearances, 10 Top 10 MVP finishes, and 25 Gold Gloves. I'm still a believer in Pie as well, but as a left fielder there won't be enough bat there. Liz is what happens when your only real skill is the ability to throw the ball hard... albeit very hard.

[Hank Scorpio]

Rowell wasn't even on the "just missed" list. I'm not sure how you can be so high on a 25 year old Reimold, yet so low on a 20 year old Rowell.

Good point here.

I guess last year really put a dent into Rowell's status, but there's plenty of time for him to pull his head out of his arse.

[tywright]

Thoughts on Berken:

Makes you wonder if Berken can make a splash in the O's rotation this year :scratchchinhmm:

[tywright]

So Hoes gets a top 10 nod from Stotle, KLaw, and just off the top 10 from Goldstein. Verrry interesting

[Baltimoron]

Kevin Goldstein is hosting a chat at BP at 2:00 pm, or in about 1.5 hours.

You can go here to ask questions and view the chat. I am pretty sure its open to non-subscribers.

[BaltimoreFan]

So Hoes gets a top 10 nod from Stotle, KLaw, and just off the top 10 from Goldstein. Verrry interesting

The general consensus seems to be that Hoes is considerably better than Avery at this point. I guess that's to be expected as Xavier is the infamous "toolsy" prospect, but Avery was still a second round pick.

Then again, they're essentially cut from the same cloth, so I guess that's not much of an excuse. I haven't seen much of Avery as of yet, but I witnessed Hoes play/take BP more than a few times in high school, and he is just an athlete's athlete.

[Tony-OH]

I personally think they are giving up on Rowell way too early. Remember, he'd be in his junior year of college right now and has a full season of Carolina League ball under him already. Also, not sure how they can not have Zach Britton listed at all...

[Hank Scorpio]

I personally think they are giving up on Rowell way too early. Remember, he'd be in his junior year of college right now and has a full season of Carolina League ball under him already. Also, not sure how like can not have Zach Britton listed at all...

Tony, what's the organizational perspective regarding Rowell's makeup? Is it as big a concern as many feel it should be?