Yankees Series

[Mr-splash]

After 62 HRs you would think people would just throw their hands up in the air and say to the hell with it. Almost like a more mild Barry Bonds treatment. People can cry all they want, but I'm just putting him on base.

[Baltimorecuse]

1 minute ago, slakattack said:

Fixed that for you

What's his lifetime BA against the O's.  I bet it's in the 400's.  O's pitching put several Yankees in the Hall.  

[slakattack]

I dunno, I look down the Yankees roster and then I look down our roster and honestly, we should be beating them 2 out 3 times we face them, especially with Stanton, per usual, on the IL.

[Moshagge3]

These are especially big series because we have to think about tiebreakers now. If it comes down to the Orioles and another team with the same record for that last playoff spot, it will be head-to-head record that decides it. (Because winner-take-all tiebreaker games are fun and Manfred hates fun.) The competition for the wild card looks to be the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers (I'm thinking the Astros are going to cruise right past them for the division), Angels, and Mariners. Maybe the Guardians get into the mix. The Orioles are already down 1-2 to the Yankees, losing this series would put them in a pretty big hole with only seven games (4 at their place) to get out. On the other hand, take two against the Rangers this weekend and you can check them off the list.  

[TopGunnar]

Huge series. A lot bigger than just a basic 3 game set in May. This is a series to let NYY and the rest of MLB that were here and we’re not going anywhere. Go right into the Bronx and punch them in the mouth. 

[allquixotic]

20 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I'm going with the same want as the last series...2-1 and I'll be happy. I'm guessing that regardless of current situations and standings, the Yankees are already the projected winners of the Al East.

 

Just this week they were able to make a though decision and pay a guy 25% of the O's whole payroll to not play baseball for them anymore. It's gotta be hard being a Yankee fan.

They are giving the Rays the benefit of the doubt by now, as they have the best chance of winning our division and the best chance of a playoff berth in the AL according to Fangraphs. But that's where their believability ends, IMO:

Fangraphs says the Yankees have a 20.8% chance to win the division and an 81.3% chance to make the playoffs. The O's, according to them, have a 5.3% chance to win the division, and a 47.1% chance to make the playoffs.

Even if we sweep the Yankees in New York, they won't give us any credit. The bean counters and sports writers think the O's are a fluke and the Yankees are this sleeping monster that's going to suddenly awaken.

These sites and their sabermetrics and odds are extremely slow to react to improved teams. They won't give us a favorable chance of making the playoffs or winning the division until like September, by which point it's almost guaranteed to happen if we're still strong in the standings.

The O's could have a 5-year stretch of being in contention or making the playoffs every year, and Fangraphs wouldn't give us favorable odds before September in each of the 5 years. Our window of winning would come and go without these immovable glaciers even taking notice. They have their perennial blue chips they're always betting on, and nothing will convince them otherwise.

This is why I don't visit those sites. They just make me angry with their obvious Yankee bias. Yes, yes, they've won the most World Series of any team; don't remind me. I know they're one of the teams with the deepest pockets. But they have not been the same team in the 21st century as they were last century, especially when you compare their spend and the results. Sometimes they spend like a drunken sailor and still miss the playoffs. And they haven't had a lot of success lately deeper in the playoffs.

It's just tiresome, you know? Having the same 1-2 teams being the "safe bets" every year. The funny thing is the Yankees are not even especially reliable anymore at doing the things the media says they will. The media over-hypes their track record and over-hypes their winning chances because of their long tail of history. But a lot of the guys who made the Yankees dynasty what it is are retired or dead.

I'd rather the smaller market team success story be the O's than the Rays, but at least this year it's someone other than the Yankees. Maybe by the end of this campaign the story will be our team. Root hard for 'em.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:

What's his lifetime BA against the O's.  I bet it's in the 400's.  O's pitching put several Yankees in the Hall.  

In 90 games against the Orioles, Judge has hit .313/.435/.712, with 37 homers.   That’s about a 65 homer per 162 games pace, compared to his overall 49 per 162 pace.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

In 90 games against the Orioles, Judge has hit .313/.435/.712, with 37 homers.   That’s about a 65 homer per 162 games pace, compared to his overall 49 per 162 pace.  

I'm guessing the difference is essentially mirrored among the general MLB populace from 2016-2023.

[Mr-splash]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In 90 games against the Orioles, Judge has hit .313/.435/.712, with 37 homers.   That’s about a 65 homer per 162 games pace, compared to his overall 49 per 162 pace.  

That is something that we cannot possibly endure. 65 homers per 162 games played is unacceptable. To allow that is a shame.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, TopGunnar said:

Huge series. A lot bigger than just a basic 3 game set in May. This is a series to let NYY and the rest of MLB that were here and we’re not going anywhere. Go right into the Bronx and punch them in the mouth. 

I’ll be honest, this is something of a “house money” series so far as I’m concerned.  At the outset of the road trip, I would have been satisfied with 3-3, and we already can’t do worse than that.  The only thing running counter to that is that the Yankees also won their games last weekend, so they could tie us with a sweep.  That said, of course I’m greedy and want to win all three.  But are they “must win” games?  Not really.
 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm guessing the difference is essentially mirrored among the general MLB populace from 2016-2023.

I don’t understand what you’re saying.  

[Fiver6565]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’ll be honest, this is something of a “house money” series so far as I’m concerned.  At the outset of the road trip, I would have been satisfied with 3-3, and we already can’t do worse than that.  The only thing running counter to that is that the Yankees also won their games last weekend, so they could tie us with a sweep.  That said, of course I’m greedy and want to win all three.  But are they “must win” games?  Not really.
 

This.  A logical post and I agree fully.  Its big in that all division games are big, but a sweep, while a crappy result, won't dampen my enthusiasm for this team moving forward one bit.  Its these ridiculously high expectations that lead people to freak the f out when we do lose.  Winning games in the ALE is hard, on the road is harder, and in Yankee Stadium is even harder than that.  Steal at least one and get out of there. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t understand what you’re saying.  

Let's say that Judge hits 30% better against the Orioles than he does against the rest of the league. 

I'd posit that 30% improvement is about the average for all ML hitters over that same time period.

Obviously outliers are going to exist but the O's, over the length of Judge's career, have had many below league average pitchers suit up for them.  It isn't surprising that Judge, or anyone else, puts up superior numbers against inferior competition.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's say that Judge hits 30% better against the Orioles than he does against the rest of the league. 

I'd posit that 30% improvement is about the average for all ML hitters over that same time period.

Obviously outliers are going to exist but the O's, over the length of Judge's career, have had many below league average pitchers suit up for them.  It isn't surprising that Judge, or anyone else, puts up superior numbers against inferior competition.

Thanks.  I’ll have to see if I can test that.  I’m sure you’re right that we’ve given up more homers than the average team in that span.  

Edited May 23, 2023 by Frobby

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Thanks.  I’ll have to see if I can test that.  

Looking forward to your findings.