Need to do more. need a bullpen arm and another stater, and hell no to Hays
This tells me Elias is also cheap and it wasnt just Angelos if he truly says Rubenstein has his full suppot
I won’t be too upset if they don’t get Burnes, Fried, or Crochet, but they should also sign a second tier 2 pitcher (injuries will happen) and I’d prefer a different RH OF than Hays.
What are the things that we know about Elias? He’s risk adverse and a straight shooter. He told us what he was targeting. We’re linked/rumored to all 3 of these players. They fit our needs with a slight increase to last year’s budget. Therefore, when Rubenstein keeps his word.
Eovaldi - at the predicted 2/44 is affordable. We’ve did the 1/13 deal with Kimbrel last year. 13 to 22 million is a bump, but that’s the bump Rubenstein is willing to pay. We have the SP depth over 162 to load manage Eovaldi. We can back off him as need be. He’s got AL East, and playoff experience.
Hays - 1/5ish. Hays accepts that he’s a 4th OF as his baseline role, but with it being a 162 game season, injuries, wall changes, he will be a de facto starter.
Diaz - 1/5ish, Venezuelan ties with our new bench coach and Basallo. It’s easier to move on from him mid season at any point if we wanted for Basallo than it would be to move on from McCann. Diaz is a better hitter as well.
I see these moves as the “hedge” play for Elias, and it’s enough to get us to the deadline, and allows us to see where we’re at without blowing any future budget, or selling too many prospect assets.
Don’t undersell that this allows Rubenstein to keep his word. The budget will be up 10-20% from last year. That will be the PR talking point and also that we gave out the biggest SP deal in franchise history AAV.
I think Eovaldi is our best shot at landing a TOR FA SP. MLBTR has him predicted at 2/44.
That’s a hedge play for Elias. The $22 million is above the standard $13 million he has had in the past to offer to a pitcher FA on a one year deal. So he adds in the extra year. So that puts it at 2/26. Consider inflation from 2023 to 2025, and that we’re contending. So added value.
So where does Elias get that $9 million from each year or $18 million total?
Webb, DC, and the difference between Santa and Kjerstad. If needed he could move O’Hearn and get there.
It’s the most realistic FA option. I think he gets there. No draft pick loss either. We have enough SP depth for the regular season to “baby” Eovaldi to keep him healthy all regular season and for the postseason.
Makes a ton of sense.
Let’s say the FA dominos fall like,
Yankees - Soto or Bregman
Jays - Santander
Red Sox - Burnes
Baltimore - for whatever reason($$$) we miss on Fried, Sasaki, Eovaldi, and Pivetta.
Does that put extra pressure on Elias to go the trade route for a TOR SP, as his only means to acquire one, and with the rest of the division adding significantly?
The hedge play would be to go with a smaller trade, a salary dump type deal for Montgomery/Ray, or to sign a FA on his typical 1/13 esque deal.
I have confidence that we’d be in the playoff hunt at the deadline with a rotation of Grayson, Eflin, Kremer, Suarez, Povich/Rogers. It’s risky though. I could see a Gibson or another short term guy like Quintana added. Then at the deadline we’d have a clearer picture on Bradish and maybe even Means(if he’s back). Only then would Elias consider a desperation trade for a SP.
I know nobody wants to hear this. I want Burnes too. Heck, give me Bregman too while we’re at it.
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