Is Adley’s defense noticeably worse this year?

[webbrick2010]

I think he needs to be more subtle with the pitch framing. He really jerks the glove back to the center of the strikezone instead of gently moving the glove to the edge of the zone. I have never felt that he has a plus arm. 

[Mr-splash]

22 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I've noticed that the framing and blocking have dropped off a bit.

He also seems thicker through the chest this year, I wonder if it might be effecting his mobility back there.

He is shockingly massive. If barrel-chested needed a picture next to it in the dictionary you could put one of him next to the definition. Still moves pretty well for a man his size. 

[SemperFi]

31 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

A better catcher can help the pitcher by limiting wild pitches. Kind of like defense is about more than not committing errors, it's about how much you help the team overall. 

That being said, I have not noticed any eye test difference in Adley's defense this year. Probably just a case of statistical noise.

I mean I know how to 

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Have definitely noticed more balls getting by him. He certainly could be tired, maybe not moving quite as well because of it. If you are off just a little, the ball will get past you.

The caught stealing stuff is 100% noticeable but the question is, how does his drop off compare to the league?

Look at the OP, which contains the answer.   The league has dropped from 25% to 21%.  Adley has dropped from 31% to 23%.   Also, as indicated, teams are running on him much more often, even accounting for the league-wide increase in steals.  Last year teams averaged .67 attempts and .51 successful steals per game.  This year it’s .86 attempts and .68 successful steals.   That’s about a 28% increase in attempts and 33% increase in successful steals.   But for Adley, he only allowed 25 successful steals last year and he’s already at 23 this year, in less than half the number of games.  So that’s a much higher increase than the league-wide increase.   

[Sports Guy]

I can’t say I have ever been wowed by Adley’s throwing.

You know he has a strong arm and he had a good pop% last year but his accuracy has never wowed me. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I can’t say I have ever been wowed by Adley’s throwing.

You know he has a strong arm and he had a good pop% last year but his accuracy has never wowed me. 

I had high expectations after watching stuff like this.

 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I can’t say I have ever been wowed by Adley’s throwing.

You know he has a strong arm and he had a good pop% last year but his accuracy has never wowed me. 

His pop times remain very good, but I feel he sometimes sacrifices accuracy in order to get rid of the ball quickly.  From what I’ve seen, McCann has a much more accurate arm.  

[Mr-splash]

I also think it's very possible he's just having a down year defensively. Defense is less reliable year to year. Very few players are plus plus defenders year in and year out. 

[SemperFi]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

A better catcher can help the pitcher by limiting wild pitches. Kind of like defense is about more than not committing errors, it's about how much you help the team overall. 

That being said, I have not noticed any eye test difference in Adley's defense this year. Probably just a case of statistical noise.

Sorry-techincal issues.

Hi A,

I did not mean to say I don't know catching; I've played and coached, I know how to teach sliding, blocking etc...but I really can't tell fundamental things like if he is in the right recieving stance which changes by pitch/situation-so important in framing.

I think it's tough to evaluate catchers as many of us have never played the position-it's sooo nuanced.  We're not even talking about things like calling the defense or calling pitches, setting up for plays at the plate.  It's sooo much more complicated and difficult to evaluate than any other position.                                    

WP's seem so subjective, why is his metric hit for a pitch that hits the screen on the fly, what about balls he is crossed up on?   For me there is a distinction between PB and WP for a reason.  

If a catcher gets lazy and tries to backhand a slider in the dirt instead of sliding/blocking that is another matter.  I have noticed Adley backhanding a few balls in that like that but can't say vs. last year.

Catching for me is like the old adage "I can't define pornography but know it when I see it".  Adley is a very good defensive catcher.

[SteveA]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

New rule to only allow 2 pick out throws has increase the number of steal attempts.   Its common knowledge that if you can get to first on Bautista that is he slow to the plate and easy to steal on.

Pitch clock make pitchers have to throw more quickly and sometimes they rush which causes them to be wilder.  That may be why the wild pitch count is up.

Adley looks in control to me defensively.  One of if not the best in the MLB. 

Your second paragraph should be easily testable.   Someone just has to check if wild pitches are up all around the league by as much as they are up for Adley, or not.   

If I wasn't at work, I'd take some time to figure that out.   But I'll leave it up to someone else

Edited June 2, 2023 by SteveA

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, SemperFi said:

Sorry-techincal issues.

Hi A,

I did not mean to say I don't know catching; I've played and coached, I know how to teach sliding, blocking etc...but I really can't tell fundamental things like if he is in the right recieving stance which changes by pitch/situation-so important in framing.

I think it's tough to evaluate catchers as many of us have never played the position-it's sooo nuanced.  We're not even talking about things like calling the defense or calling pitches, setting up for plays at the plate.  It's sooo much more complicated and difficult to evaluate than any other position.                                    

WP's seem so subjective, why is his metric hit for a pitch that hits the screen on the fly, what about balls he is crossed up on?   For me there is a distinction between PB and WP for a reason.  

If a catcher gets lazy and tries to backhand a slider in the dirt instead of sliding/blocking that is another matter.  I have noticed Adley backhanding a few balls in that like that but can't say vs. last year.

Catching for me is like the old adage "I can't define pornography but know it when I see it".  Adley is a very good defensive catcher.

I agree wild pitches are the pitchers fault, but nevertheless a great C can reduce them. I am pretty sure the "blocking" metrics include a lot of pitches that could be wild pitches but get blocked. The question is how accurate they are. I agree, Adley is excellent from everything I have seen, particularly at blocking and framing. 

[TommyPickles]

There have been a couple wild pitches I was surprised he didn't block. But, overall, he has still been elite.

[SemperFi]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree wild pitches are the pitchers fault, but nevertheless a great C can reduce them. I am pretty sure the "blocking" metrics include a lot of pitches that could be wild pitches but get blocked. The question is how accurate they are. I agree, Adley is excellent from everything I have seen, particularly at blocking and framing. 

Thanks I think I see what you are referencing (attached below) but I just have a problem with the metric.  

Here is another question for the group:  why is there a such a strong correlation between good pitching staffs (chiefly starters) and  "good" catchers especially in the attached framing reference.  Is it the pitcher of catcher?  To me it's difficult to "siloize" pitching and catching stats.  Chicken or the egg? 

I'll submit that better pitchers make better catchers and especially aid in framing-also baserunning, WP/PB-really every measure of catching.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catcher_framing?year=2023&team=&min=q&type=catcher&sort=4,1 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-blocking?players=592663-2023-143&selected_idx=0

[Aristotelian]

Just now, SemperFi said:

Thanks I think I see what you are referencing (attached below) but I just have a problem with the metric.  

Here is another question for the group:  why is there a such a strong correlation between good pitching staffs (chiefly starters) and  "good" catchers especially in the attached framing reference.  Is it the pitcher of catcher?  To me it's difficult to "siloize" pitching and catching stats.  Chicken or the egg? 

I'll submit that better pitchers make better catchers and especially aid in framing-also baserunning, WP/PB-really every measure of catching.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catcher_framing?year=2023&team=&min=q&type=catcher&sort=4,1 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-blocking?players=592663-2023-143&selected_idx=0

Yes, those are the metrics that Frobby referenced in the OP. I agree, it is hard to know how accurate they are. Could be a case of garbage in-garbage out. Regarding blocking, it's hard to believe Adley would go from #1 last year to average that quickly. If you count the whole time period of 2022-23 he is still #2. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

New rule to only allow 2 pick out throws has increase the number of steal attempts.   Its common knowledge that if you can get to first on Bautista that is he slow to the plate and easy to steal on.

Pitch clock make pitchers have to throw more quickly and sometimes they rush which causes them to be wilder.  That may be why the wild pitch count is up.

Adley looks in control to me defensively.  One of if not the best in the MLB. 

Same pitch clock and rule changes for all teams, but running on Adley is up considerably more than league average.  

I do think the word is out on a couple of our pitchers.   Bautista has allowed 7 steals without anyone betting caught; Baumann has allowed 6 with none caught.   On the other end of the spectrum, runners have failed in 4 of 6 attempts against Kremer, and 4 of 5 against Baker.   Interestingly, only 8 runners tried against Bautista last year, and 2 of them failed; 3 of 4 failed against Baumann.