Has Gunnar's struggles slowed the promotion of other O's prospects?

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

This board is overloaded with fans who think a bunch of early 20s minors prospect are going to come to Camden Yards and outperform a bunch of mid-career, established ballplayers. And it's like bruh, stop it. Seriously guys stop doing that. It really shows that many fans have no idea what they are talking about and are consumed with the shiny luster of Norfolk and Bowie toys. Major League Baseball is very hard.

Largely agree.

I'm not sure it is baseball knowledge as much as it is just psychology.  People want the shiny new thing.

 

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

This board is overloaded with fans who think a bunch of early 20s minors prospect are going to come to Camden Yards and outperform a bunch of mid-career, established ballplayers. And it's like bruh, stop it. Seriously guys stop doing that. It really shows that many fans have no idea what they are talking about and are consumed with the shiny luster of Norfolk and Bowie toys. Major League Baseball is very hard.

This is a very grounded perspective.

[Mr-splash]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Largely agree.

I'm not sure it is baseball knowledge as much as it is just psychology.  People want the shiny new thing.

 

I guess the consistent everyday production from guys like Hays, Mullins, Santandar, Frazier, Urias, etc. is boring. We see them every day and every time you see Santandar or Frazier K there is a chorus of fans who scream call up Kjserstad, Cowser or even Holliday. Alright dude. Ain't a chance in hell that Holliday is coming to Baltimore at age 19 and is better than Frazier. Ain't gonna happen. Same with Kjerstad and our starting outfield right now. It's not happening. 

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If you look at the situation from an industry wide view as opposed to is being a simple Orioles centric issue, you will find that Gunnar and Grayson’s struggles are pretty much par for the course. The amount of rookies who succeed immediately are in the very small minority compared to the ones who fail/struggle with acclimating at first. 

A simple look at JRod, Witt Jr, Walker, Torkelson, Adley (when he was first called up) will show that most (even the most talented of prospects) struggle out of the gate with the jump in competition in today’s game.

Expecting Gunnar to be an instant Allstar or better in the field than the current GG winner at the position, was EXTREMELY UNREALISTIC. That is why it may be helpful to manage one’s expectations of immediate success for guys like Westburg, Cowser, Kjerstad. They will most likely struggle too initially when called upon. But in the end they will hopefully be able to figure things out and understand how to apply their talent/skills to a new level of competition in order to achieve success.

Elias isn’t just looking at Gunnar in order to evaluate how to best handle his top prospects. But his data points run throughout the game for determining how and when to call guys up while managing not to harm the team’s chances for winning.

Good post.  So are you saying that Gunnar's struggle for 184 plate appearances this season were to be expected.  And that even if Gunnar had an 840 OPS right now Elias would not have promoted and given significant playing time to Westburg or Ortiz?

Edited June 2, 2023 by wildcard

[Spy Fox]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You are addressing a different question.   He are talking about why the O's keep playing Gunnar.  And I agree with you its because the respect his  abilities, makeup and believe he will progress.

But that is not the question.  The question is has his struggles caused Elias to not want to have too many struggling rookies in the lineup at the same time?

I went to that question because I think it’s the more relevant one when relating Gunnar to our prospects still in the minors. Elias has seen dozens of his prospects come to the majors over the years and knows each guy will have his own unique path. The decision inputs are way wider than “How’d Gunnar do?”

[Hank Scorpio]

4 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

I guess the consistent everyday production from guys like Hays, Mullins, Santandar, Frazier, Urias, etc. is boring. We see them every day and every time you see Santandar or Frazier K there is a chorus of fans who scream call up Kjserstad, Cowser or even Holliday. Alright dude. Ain't a chance in hell that Holliday is coming to Baltimore at age 19 and is better than Frazier. Ain't gonna happen. Same with Kjerstad and our starting outfield right now. It's not happening. 

You don't think Westburg could pull a .718 OPS in the majors? 

Why?

[glenn__davis]

33 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Gunnar Henderson was the #1 MLB prospect until he graduated to a major leaguer earlier this season.   However he has struggled at the plate and in the field.   The 21 year old (22 on June 29th) now has 184 plate appearances in 2023 and a 702 OPS.   This is after having a 788 OPS in 132 PAs in 2022.    So the more the league has seen him the worse he has hit on an annual basis.

"On an annual basis"?  I'm trying to determine what point you're making here.  Are you saying that...because his numbers this year are worse than last year he is hitting worse "on an annual basis"??

[Bemorewins]

Just now, wildcard said:

Good post.  So are you saying that Gunnar struggle for 184 plate appearances this season were to be expected.  And that even if Gunnar had an 840 OPS right now Elias would not have promoted and given significant playing time to Westburg or Ortiz?

Yes I am saying that his initial struggles to acclimate/adjust to Major League pitching and play a relatively new position we the most likely outcome given the environment of today’s game.

I am also saying that Elias has his eye on A WHOLE MORE than us. He is viewing the game from a 20,000 feet perspective, not simply myopically looking purely through a “bird’s eye view”. If you look at most of the top prospects that have come to the show over the last 3/4 years, you will find that Gunnar’s performance is not uncommon, but that it is the norm.

If Gunnar would have found instantaneous success he would be viewed as an outlier, not ok now it’s time for the next guy and the next guy after that to follow suit. 

How closely do you follow prospects industry wide? If you do, how do you interpret what you see?

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I went to that question because I think it’s the more relevant one when relating Gunnar to our prospects still in the minors. Elias has seen dozens of his prospects come to the majors over the years and knows each guy will have his own unique path. The decision inputs are way wider than “How’d Gunnar do?”

But "How'd Gunnar do?" may effect how many rookies Elias wants in the lineup at the same time when Elias is trying to make the playoff.   If Gunnar was hitting better Elias may decide its safer to call the next rookie up.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

But "How'd Gunnar do?" may effect how many rookies Elias wants in the lineup at the same time when Elias is trying to make the playoff.   If Gunnar was hitting better Elias may decide its safer to call the next rookie up.

So you do think Elias is stupid.

 

[Mr-splash]

5 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

You don't think Westburg could pull a .718 OPS in the majors? 

Why?

Maybe he could. Westburg is an interesting case because of how seasoned he is with minor league ball. But my money is on Frazier outplaying him over 162. OPS isn't everything, especially because it does not address the unequal importance between slugging and OBP. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by Mr-splash

[LA2]

8 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

I guess the consistent everyday production from guys like Hays, Mullins, Santandar, Frazier, Urias, etc. is boring. We see them every day and every time you see Santandar or Frazier K there is a chorus of fans who scream call up Kjserstad, Cowser or even Holliday. Alright dude. Ain't a chance in hell that Holliday is coming to Baltimore at age 19 and is better than Frazier. Ain't gonna happen. Same with Kjerstad and our starting outfield right now. It's not happening. 

Maybe people have also forgotten how long it took for Hays, Mullins, and Santander to reach improved levels of performance. Mullins almost didn't make it at all, despite a ballyhooed beginning (Adam ceremoniously handing CF over to him, etc.).

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

You don't think Westburg could pull a .718 OPS in the majors? 

Why?

Why can't Gunnar?

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Good post.  So are you saying that Gunnar's struggle for 184 plate appearances this season were to be expected.  And that even if Gunnar had an 840 OPS right now Elias would not have promoted and given significant playing time to Westburg or Ortiz?

I don't believe Elias would have, and I think the evidence is Frazier's presence.  He clearly got Frazier to avoid just that situation.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Pickles said:

I don't believe Elias would have, and I think the evidence is Frazier's presence.  He clearly got Frazier to avoid just that situation.

So what left handed infield prospect is Frazier protecting us from?

Elias straight out said a large consideration for signing Frazier was that he bats left handed.