Has Gunnar's struggles slowed the promotion of other O's prospects?

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Yes I am saying that his initial struggles to acclimate/adjust to Major League pitching and play a relatively new position we the most likely outcome given the environment of today’s game.

I am also saying that Elias has his eye on A WHOLE MORE than us. He is viewing the game from a 20,000 feet perspective, not simply myopically looking purely through a “bird’s eye view”. If you look at most of the top prospects that have come to the show over the last 3/4 years, you will find that Gunnar’s performance is not uncommon, but that it is the norm.

If Gunnar would have found instantaneous success he would be viewed as an outlier, not ok now it’s time for the next guy and the next guy after that to follow suit. 

How closely do you follow prospects industry wide? If you do, how do you interpret what you see?

I agree that Gunnar's performance is probably similar to many other rookies around the league.  And I agree that Elias has said that recently.

Adley was the #1 prospect in the country.  He slumped in May 2022 for a 529 OPS.   By the end of June he had 129 PA and a 775 OPS.  And he kept going up from there.

I don't think it would have surprised Elias if Gunnar as the #1 prospect had done the same.  But he hasn't.  The Gunnar May OPS is 740 and the 2023 OPS of 702 could be making Elias think I would like to get Gunnar hitting better before I promote another rookie that could also struggle. Or not.

I will tell you what I think.  I think Elias addresses it on a  case by case basis.   Because Gunnar, Mateo, Frazier and Urias are already with the O's,  Elias does not have to take the risk on calling up rookies Westburg or Ortiz.  

But with Mullins  out if Cowser was healthy he would promote him because Hicks, McKenna and Vavra performance is not likely be better than what Cowser would do.  Especially if McKenna still plays vs lefties.

[Spy Fox]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I will tell you what I think.  I think Elias addresses it on a  case by case basis.   Because Gunnar, Mateo, Frazier and Urias are already with the O's,  Elias does not have to take the risk on calling up rookies Westburg or Ortiz.  

But with Mullins  out if Cowser was healthy he would promote him because Hicks, McKenna and Vavra performance is not likely be better than what Cowser would do.  Especially if McKenna still plays vs lefties.

Agree about the case by case basis, and that Cowser would already be here if he hadn't unfortunately been injured at the same time as Mullins. 

There's also always a risk in not calling up players who might be improvements. We'll never know how 2022/3 could have been different if Grayson had joined the O's last May when he was pitching excellently at AAA. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by Spy Fox

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree that Gunnar's performance is probably similar to many other rookies around the league.  And I agree that Elias has said that recently.

Adley was the #1 prospect in the country.  He slumped in May 2022 for a 529 OPS.   By the end of June he had 129 PA and a 775 OPS.  And he kept going up from there.

I don't think it would have surprised Elias if Gunnar as the #1 prospect had done the same.  But he hasn't.  The Gunnar May OPS is 740 and the 2023 OPS of 702 could be making Elias think I would like to get Gunnar hitting better before I promote another rookie that could also struggle. Or not.

I will tell you what I think.  I think Elias addresses it on a  case by case basis.   Because Gunnar, Mateo, Frazier and Urias are already with the O's,  Elias does not have to take the risk on calling up rookies Westburg or Ortiz.  

But with Mullins  out if Cowser was healthy he would promote him because Hicks, McKenna and Vavra performance is not likely be better than what Cowser would do.  Especially if McKenna still plays vs lefties.

What you say sounds reasonable to me.

I would add that prospect/young player growth is not linear. There can be peaks and valleys as they adjust to the Majors. In saying that some may start out hot like Gunnar did at the end of last season and then have a point where they regress/struggle. It’s not always an upward tragectory.

[OriolesMagic83]

Video I was talking about.  Coverage of Gunnar starts about 11:35

Gunnar is hitting .074 avg/.185 slg on breaking pitches (obp not given)

..176 avg./235 slg on offspeed.

[jdwilde1]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Video I was talking about.  Coverage of Gunnar starts about 11:35

Gunnar is hitting .074 avg/.185 slg on breaking pitches (obp not given)

..176 avg./235 slg on offspeed.

[TopGunnar]

It’s a crime Jordan Westburg isn’t in the Majors. 

[now]

I remember doing some cursory research a few years ago and noticing how the norm seemed to be a turnover with two rookies (regulars) per season. Don't know if that's still the case but it seems about right for how most GMs like to play it. Of course it's skewed with mid-season debuts and such, but I think the basic principle is still followed. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, now said:

I remember doing some cursory research a few years ago and noticing how the norm seemed to be a turnover with two rookies (regulars) per season. Don't know if that's still the case but it seems about right for how most GMs like to play it. Of course it's skewed with mid-season debuts and such, but I think the basic principle is still followed. 

Most teams don't have more than a couple projected regulars that get promoted each year.  Baltimore has been collecting inventory in the minors for five years.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Spy Fox said:

Why do you think Westburg is still in AAA? One reason I've been entertaining the Super 2 possibility is that I find all the other explanations pretty flimsy as well at this point. 

I don't believe it's about performance, Westburg's trade value, or anything related to prospect rankings. The expressed reason might be related to positional flexibility, but I don't fully buy that either. 

I think (1) they’re not confident in Westburg’s defense and (2) they’re risk averse regarding relying too much on rookies.  

[now]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Most teams don't have more than a couple projected regulars that get promoted each year.  Baltimore has been collecting inventory in the minors for five years.

Right, so I think it's the veteranosity philosophy that prevails, regardless.

[Pickles]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think (1) they’re not confident in Westburg’s defense and (2) they’re risk averse regarding relying too much on rookies.  

I think the bolded is something worth talking about.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

I think the bolded is something worth talking about.

Based on everything I’ve read, his defense is solid enough. But I’m not sure the front office sees it that way.   

[Sports Guy]

It’s a shame people on this site put so much value in SSS.

I also find it funny that people want to blow Elias because of how great he is at building a farm system and then they scoff at the idea that the players they laud can come up here and be helpful…that somehow all of these highly ranked, talented players are actually completely poop and not actually very good.

The “logic” is hysterical and the inconsistency is complete and utter bs.

[Pickles]

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Based on everything I’ve read, his defense is solid enough. But I’m not sure the front office sees it that way.   

Well, that's the part worth talking about. 

Just from observing it seems like they have questions.

[sevastras]

No. Respectably, you over think some times. We may agree or disagree on things but sometimes(like now), relax.