Tyler Wells 2023

[nvpacchi]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Is this true? At the major league level is there really a measurable difference between a middle-middle FB at 92 vs. 95? I ask this because I don't know and I have never seen data to support your claim. Most MLB hitters are going to barrel both of those pitches pretty consistently unless they are fooled. I would say pitching in the middle of the plate is a bad idea regardless of whether you are 92 or 95. 

I just dug into this a little.. For middle middle fastballs you get a jump in swinging strike rate.  92-93 MPH fastballs 9.5% and 94-95 MPH fastballs 10.7%

However not much discernable difference in xwoba on ball in play, everything hovering around .400.  Barrel rate also pretty consistent at 10%

I think its fair to say that if they hit it, they're gonna hit it the same, but velo does help to prevent balls in play for middle-middle fastballs.  1.2% on swinging strike rate is a pretty big bump, probably translates to one additional swing and miss every game or every other game, which adds up after 162 games.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

I went back to the splits to see if memory good, and 2012 Pedro Strop is a season I hope might be kind of similar.

As he did with nuggets (and would later do with Brach), Buck burned them out.     Early 2012 Strop was excellent.

His monthly ERA splits for 2012: 2.08, 0.66, 0.96, 1.64

Here he is 3rd in ERA among all MLB relievers through July 31:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=1000&ind=0&startdate=2012-04-01&enddate=2012-07-31&season1=&season=&stats=rel&sortcol=16&sortdir=asc&team=0&pagenum=1

And then he crashed - 4.09 and 6.48.

Even Buck went away from him for awhile, and eventually he had a couple good outings against the Yankees in the ALDS.

Hopeful '23 Wells isn't all used up, but we'll see.

I always thought that Buck was pretty good at managing a bullpen.  It's likely that Strop was just not an elite reliever.  I can't remember the outcry against Buck like there is against Hyde for "babying" relievers.

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

I just dug into this a little.. For middle middle fastballs you get a jump in swinging strike rate.  92-93 MPH fastballs 9.5% and 94-95 MPH fastballs 10.7%

However not much discernable difference in xwoba on ball in play, everything hovering around .400.  Barrel rate also pretty consistent at 10%

I think its fair to say that if they hit it, they're gonna hit it the same, but velo does help to prevent balls in play for middle-middle fastballs.  1.2% on swinging strike rate is a pretty big bump, probably translates to one additional swing and miss every game or every other game, which adds up after 162 games.

Thank you. Great work. Appreciate the effort.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I always thought that Buck was pretty good at managing a bullpen.  It's likely that Strop was just not an elite reliever.  I can't remember the outcry against Buck like there is against Hyde for "babying" relievers.

It's confusing, but I think the narrative here has been that Hyde overworks relievers and babies starters. I don't buy into either one, myself. 

[OriolesMagic83]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

It's confusing, but I think the narrative here has been that Hyde overworks relievers and babies starters. I don't buy into either one, myself. 

I thought Hyde was more accused of babying relievers but it's probably starters he's accused of babying too.  Some people expect our best relievers to pitch 90% of the bullpen innings.  That's a recipe for having your best relievers on the IL.

[Malike]

When you have a young rotation full of guys with hardly any IP in their careers, I think it's prudent to err on the side of caution. I don't fault them for babying the starters, if he's even doing that. The issue is we do not have a ton of reliable leverage arms either on the team or in the minors to shuttle up and down. It's basically damned if you do or damned if you don't.

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

I just dug into this a little.. For middle middle fastballs you get a jump in swinging strike rate.  92-93 MPH fastballs 9.5% and 94-95 MPH fastballs 10.7%

However not much discernable difference in xwoba on ball in play, everything hovering around .400.  Barrel rate also pretty consistent at 10%

I think its fair to say that if they hit it, they're gonna hit it the same, but velo does help to prevent balls in play for middle-middle fastballs.  1.2% on swinging strike rate is a pretty big bump, probably translates to one additional swing and miss every game or every other game, which adds up after 162 games.

This is great work. Thank you.

I imagine if you looked at every sector, higher velo would result in more swinging strikes everywhere, and perhaps have a larger difference the further you get from middle middle. And at some point away from middle middle, higher velo could result in better outcomes on ball on play as they are harder to square up - but that could be minimal given that faster in = faster out with quality contact. 

Basically, velo isn’t everything, but holding all else equal higher velo is always better. 

[nvpacchi]

14 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

This is great work. Thank you.

I imagine if you looked at every sector, higher velo would result in more swinging strikes everywhere, and perhaps have a larger difference the further you get from middle middle. And at some point away from middle middle, higher velo could result in better outcomes on ball on play as they are harder to square up - but that could be minimal given that faster in = faster out with quality contact. 

Basically, velo isn’t everything, but holding all else equal higher velo is always better. 

thank you!  you're correct, higher velo independent of location results in a steady climb in swinging strike rate.

Wells has demonstrated you can get away with average velo and find success, but then hitting those spots becomes even more vital.  Justin Armbruester is the next name that comes to mind to see if he can nail his locations and find ML success - even with a really nice fastball shape (minus the velo)

 

[Just Regular]

Some of what's enjoyable watching Gibson going good is its a throwback to the pitchers I grew up with.

Make no mistake, control artists living on the edges are being systematically exterminated by Driveline students of the week ("It's just math", Theo Epstein) and darn straight in October waiver claims like Jacob Webb seem more promising 20 pitches at a time than anything Gibson can do.

I think of Tyler Wells as more of a Felix Bautista than a Kyle Gibson, so same as DL Hall it will be nice if the good velocity can revive.

We knew what was very likely going to happen when our lineup faced Jordan Lyles this year, and ibid Kyle Gibson next year if he isn't brought back.

[Jim'sKid26]

3 hours ago, nvpacchi said:

thank you!  you're correct, higher velo independent of location results in a steady climb in swinging strike rate.

Wells has demonstrated you can get away with average velo and find success, but then hitting those spots becomes even more vital.  Justin Armbruester is the next name that comes to mind to see if he can nail his locations and find ML success - even with a really nice fastball shape (minus the velo)

 

With the advent of spin rate and pitch shape becoming critical aspects of swing str%, one would have to take these into consideration independently of velocity. Wells is 6'8" with a significant down hill plane on the FB. Gotta think this helps his FB play up at 92-93. 

I love this stuff! I wish it was around "back in the day..."

[lifelongbirdfan]

I'm confused... is Wells even postseason eligible at this point?  Am I correct that players can be added to playoff roster only if replacing an injured player? But what if no one gets hurt? Also, if only one hurt player, does that mean only 1 of Wells/Means but not both? 

[banks703]

1 minute ago, lifelongbirdfan said:

I'm confused... is Wells even postseason eligible at this point?  Am I correct that players can be added to playoff roster only if replacing an injured player? But what if no one gets hurt? Also, if only one hurt player, does that mean only 1 of Wells/Means but not both? 

Have to be in the organization as of September 1 to be postseason eligible 

[Frobby]

Both Wells and Mesns are eligible.  You only need to be on the 40-man or the 60-day IL.

However, I question what’s going on with Wells.  He threw an inning on August 23 and August 25, and hasn’t pitched since.  That and the Lopez acquisition mske me thibk something may be wrong with Wells.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Both Wells and Mesns are eligible.  You only need to be on the 40-man or the 60-day IL.

However, I question what’s going on with Wells.  He threw an inning on August 23 and August 25, and hasn’t pitched since.  That and the Lopez acquisition mske me thibk something may be wrong with Wells.

Yep. This was my first thought with the Lopez acquisition and I didn’t even realize that Wells hasn’t pitched in a game for a week.

Definitely something wrong.  Good catch.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yep. This was my first thought with the Lopez acquisition and I didn’t even realize that Wells hasn’t pitched in a game for a week.

Definitely something wrong.  Good catch.

If something is wrong, Roch is oblivious to it:

“Tyler Wells wasn’t in the first wave of call-ups as rosters expanded yesterday, but he’s coming. In a relief role. With experience closing as a Rule 5 pick.

“Wells has surrendered 25 home runs this season, second on the club behind Dean Kremer’s 26, and in six fewer games and 36 1/3 innings. Maybe that makes some folks nervous. Or maybe it’s less of a risk if he’s working in shorter spurts. Like, say, the ninth.

“We won’t know what version of Wells is rejoining the club until he arrives. What the reset, or whatever it’s called, did for him.“

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/this-that-and-the-other-1-40