"Even good players almost always struggle initially" -- or do they?

[Frobby]

In discussing whether to bring up Jordan Westburg, Colton Cowser, etc., we often hear statements like “even very good players usually struggle initially, with very rare exceptions.”  I spent some time today testing that statement.

For my study, I looked at all 20 players who debuted in 2017 who have  been worth at least 5.0 rWAR in their  career.  Originally I was going to do 2018 as well, but this was time consuming so I decided just to do one year for now.

For each of the 20 players, I looked at their OPS after 50, 100 and 200 PA.  In the majority of cases, the player didn’t have 200 PA in his first year, so I had to do estimated calculations over 2-3 seasons.  In summary, the results were all over the lot, but I definitely would not say that the vast majority of these players struggled initially.  A significant number  started very well, or at least held their own.

First 50 PA: Six of the players had an OPS over .800: Cody Bellinger, Rafael Devers, Paul DeJong, Ian Happ, Harrison Bader, Rhys Hoskins and Luke Voit.  Bellinger and Hopkins were over 1.000, Voit, Happ and Bader were over .900.   Four other players were in the .700-799 category: Matt Chapman, Brian Anderson, Ahmed Rosario and Brett Phillips.  Four were between .600-.700: JP Crawford, Alex Verdugo, Mitch Garver and Austin Hays.  Five were under .600: Ozzie Albies, Yandy Diaz, Ryan McMahon, Victor Robles and Anthony Santander.   The average OPS after 50 PA was .749, compared to the average career OPS for these players of .766.

First 100 PA: Bellinger and Hoskins remained over 1.000.  Devers was over .900.  Happ and Robles were over .800.  Chapman, Albies, DeJong, Anderson, Hays, Voit and Phillips were over .700.  Bader, Crawford Verdugo, Diaz, Rosario, and Garver were over .600. McMahon and Santander were under .600.   The average OPS was .766, same as the average career OPS for these players.

First 200 PA: Hoskins was still over 1.000.  Bellinger and Happ were over .900.   Over .800 were Chapman, Albies, Devers, DeJong, Verdugo, Robles and Voit.  Bader, Anderson and Diaz were over .700.  Crawford, McMahon, Rosario, Garver, Hays, Santander and Phillps were over .600.  Nobody was under .600.  The average OPS was .782

A couple of notes:  Only seven of the 20 players got over 200 PA in their first year: Chapman, Bellinger, Albies , Devers, DeJong, Happ and Hopkins.  Four of the players took three years to get there: Verdugo, Hays, Robles and Santander.   Ten of the players had less than 100 PA their first year; four had under 50 (McMahon, Verdugo, Robles and Santander).

Needless to say, these are the 20 guys who have had relatively successful careers, out of 89 position players who debuted in 2017.  But it does show that not nearly all of good players struggle initially, and exceptions aren’t exactly rare.  So, I think that undercuts the argument that we can’t bring up guys like Westburg and Cowser because they may struggle at first even if they eventually become good players.   They might, and they might not.  Maybe there’s a Hoskins or Bellinger in there.

 

Edited June 15, 2023 by Frobby

[Pickles]

As always, thanks for the leg work.

I don't think we should be surprised if we see some guys hit well and some guys not hit well in a group with a small enough sample size.  Guys are always going to be hot and cold in ways that don't fully reflect their underlying abilities.

I'll say that I don't know how exactly to weigh it into the equation, but the fact is those guys are the most successful players in their sample, and a full third of them took multiple years to even get to such a low number of at-bats, suggesting in and of itself a certain adjustment period.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

11 minutes ago, Pickles said:

As always, thanks for the leg work.

I don't think we should be surprised if we see some guys hit well and some guys not hit well in a group with a small enough sample size.  Guys are always going to be hot and cold in ways that don't fully reflect their underlying abilities.

I'll say that I don't know how exactly to weigh it into the equation, but the fact is those guys are the most successful players in their sample, and a full third of them took multiple years to even get to such a low number of at-bats, suggesting in and of itself a certain adjustment period.

 

Nevertheless….

I’m willing to roll the dice on a couple of them.

[forphase1]

Just wanted to say thanks for the research and the information.  As your study showed, while there is certainly no guarantee any of the 'kids' would come up and be immediately productive, nor is there any guarantee that they would struggle or NOT be able to match/exceed the OPS of whomever they are replacing (Mateo .641 OPS, Frazier .707 OPS, possibly Mountcastle .686 OPS).  It will all vary from player to player and situation by situation.  Can't necessarily make any real assumptions in either direction.  

[Hallas]

To me I think you have to weigh the error bars of projecting a young player's performance versus a bit more certainty in an established player's performance.  It's not so much that all young players strugle - Henderson didn't struggle last year, and he's got his foot on the gas right now after a bit of a slow start.  It's more about whether the potential for team's improvement is worth the considerable potential of a flop.  For some guys it's definitely worth it.  It's harder to justify if everyone's hot.

 

Right now Mountcastle and Mateo are the only ones that you'd consider looking for a replacement, but Mateo is too valuable as a defender to let him ride the pine lightly.  Mountcastle is probably a different story, and I think we should be looking to move Santander to first when he's not DHing, and maybe bringing up Cowser for an outfield audition.

 

Westburg doesn't really have a spot right now unless you're looking to get away from Frazier, but the way he's been hitting lately I'm not sure you want to do that.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Hallas

[sportsfan8703]

It’s a big jump. Terrin Vavra just turned 26, and is a career .326 hitting in AAA over the last two seasons. 
 

Chance Sisco won a batting title at one of his AAA stops. Lou Montanez was a Triple Crown winner in Bowie. 

Edited June 15, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[vab]

The real question is how many of those rookies Frobby looked at had regular playing time when they came up. I don't think Elias is holding them back because he's worried about early struggles, he's holding them back because there's no regular playing time available right now. There are very few players period who can put up solid numbers in a part-time role let alone rookies. 

[Aristotelian]

Even if there is an adjustment period, the added production after a bad month or two may still be worth it.

A few from recent Orioles history:

Markakis 2006: .558 and .667 in April/May, .803 and .999 June-July.

Trey Mancini 2016-17: .794 April, .877 May

Adam Jones 2006-7: .542 and .520 July/Aug, .669 and .736 Aug/Sept '07

Machado 2012: .732 and .742 Aug/Sep plus the fake-to-first-tag-at-third play.

Hays 2017-19: .555 Sept/Oct, .947 Sept/Oct '19

Mountcastle 2020: .981 Aug, .841 Sep

Seems like numbers are pretty much all over the place. If there is a transition period it might be 1-2 months but plenty of guys hit right away.