Ortiz vs Westburg

[HelenaEngineer]

I get that scouting the stat line is not the best way to evaluate a player's potential to succeed in the majors, and I am curious about views from observers who have seen more of these two players than I have. It seems that there is a segment of the Orioles fan base that has determined Ortiz is a good field, light hitting infielder and Westburg is a big bopper that could add immediate pop to the lineup but is being held down in Norfolk for some reason. I am all in favor of more power and production from 2B and have concerns about Mateo offensively at SS, but I wonder if the assumed difference in offensive potential of these two players is being overstated. Perhaps the very small sample size of 33 PAs in Baltimore for Ortiz has had undue influence?

If you look at minor league offensive numbers from 2022 and 2023, the results are remarkably similar. At Norfolk in 2023, Ortiz has an OPS of .944 and Westburg is at .941. Over their careers, in AA, Westburg was .792 and Ortiz was .791 and in AAA, Westburg is at .898 and Ortiz at .954, albeit with only 257 PAs compared to 696 for Westburg. The OBP is almost identical in both 2022 and 2023 in the minors. Ortiz tends to hit for a bit higher average and Westburg has a bit more power with very similar overall results.

I don't think there is a dispute that Ortiz is the better defensive player, especially at SS. My question is that if you don't think Ortiz merits additional playing time and ABs with the Orioles, what would be the rationale behind giving that time to Westburg without letting Ortiz play enough to see what he can do. If there is something about their swing or overall makeup that from a player evaluation standpoint indicates that Westburg is more likely to succeed, I can buy that, but I am not qualified to make that assessment. From a pure numbers standpoint, I don't see the case though. If recent trends continue, we might see Ortiz at SS, and Westburg rotating at 2B with Frazier, who also covers the supersub role, later this summer - but for now, is there a strong case for Westburg over Ortiz and what would the basis be? Clearly having both of them riding the pines in Baltimore would make no sense at all.

[Aristotelian]

Westburg pretty clearly has the stronger offensive resume. 27 HR last year to Ortiz 19, and Westburg hit more of his vs AAA pitching. Ortiz has fewer AB's this year, but Westburg is destroying him 17 to 5, although their OPS is about the same. Westburg also has an edge in walk rate, although Ortiz has a big edge in strikeouts. The question is whether Ortiz's defense makes up for Westburg's power. The thing is, with Gunnar and Holliday it is possible neither of them are ever full time players for the Orioles. 

[HelenaEngineer]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Westburg pretty clearly has the stronger offensive resume. 27 HR last year to Ortiz 19, and Westburg hit more of his vs AAA pitching. Ortiz has fewer AB's this year, but Westburg is destroying him 17 to 5, although their OPS is about the same. Westburg also has an edge in walk rate, although Ortiz has a big edge in strikeouts. The question is whether Ortiz's defense makes up for Westburg's power. The thing is, with Gunnar and Holliday it is possible neither of them are ever full time players for the Orioles. 

Why does more HRs with the same OPS equate to "pretty clearly a stronger offensive resume"? I have always considered OPS a better overall assessment of hitting performance than raw HR totals. Also would a higher K rate for Westburg potentially indicate some more difficulty making the transition to Baltimore? If he has a higher chase rate and more swing and miss in his game, that could be a good reason to keep him in Norfolk to work on that while giving Ortiz his shot.

[G54377]

With Gunnar and Holliday pretty much locked in on the left side of the infield, I'd like to see Westburg stick with us at 2B with his offense to beef up our lineup. Ortiz seems like the odd man out. 

[sportsfan8703]

Ortiz is on the 40 man and can play a MLB level SS. That’s the difference right now. 

[waroriole]

[HelenaEngineer]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Ortiz is on the 40 man and can play a MLB level SS. That’s the difference right now. 

There is that, and it is pretty clear to me that they are going to need one of the 40 man spots for Cowser pretty soon. Whether it is replacing Lester or McKenna on the 26, the Orioles clearly need better defense in RF and more left handed power in the lineup. I have to think Mullins and Cowser take their spots and Hicks becomes the 4th outfielder with a lot of starts vs LHP and Santander playing more DH and potentially 1B vs LHP depending on Mountcastle health and performance.

[wildcard]

We can cite numbers from AAA all day but they are with consistent at bats.   If those consistent at bats are not available in the majors neither player is likely to hit  that well.

Vs right Gunnar is hitting for a 860 OPS  and Urias 831.   Which means they are like in the lineup vs righties.  Frazier at a 695 OPS vs righties but Elias/Hyde seem  to love him because he makes things happen.  He has a 754 OPS with runners in scoring position.   That account for why he has  32 RBI in 227 at bats.

Vs lefties none of these three hit well.   Frazier 638 OPS, Gunnar 575 OPS, Urias 552 OPS.  Mateo is hitting  well vs lefties with a 782 OPS.   But is hitting just again lefties give Westburg or Ortiz enough consistent at bats to perform well?  Probably not.

Now there are DH at bats.  Adley takes roughly 20% of those but the rest are open for whoever.  But if the O's would decide to give most of the DH at bat to one player it might not be Westburg with a AAA OPS 941 or Ortiz with a AAA OPS of 943.  It might be Cowser with at AAA OPS of  1019.  At least until Mullins is back.

Edited June 19, 2023 by wildcard

[Aristotelian]

26 minutes ago, HelenaEngineer said:

Why does more HRs with the same OPS equate to "pretty clearly a stronger offensive resume"? I have always considered OPS a better overall assessment of hitting performance than raw HR totals. Also would a higher K rate for Westburg potentially indicate some more difficulty making the transition to Baltimore? If he has a higher chase rate and more swing and miss in his game, that could be a good reason to keep him in Norfolk to work on that while giving Ortiz his shot.

Honestly I was going to say that Westburg's overall numbers (before this year) are better but now that I look I'm not sure that's the case. Westburg has had ups and downs as well. Maybe that is why they are taking their time promoting him.

[Just Regular]

Good review of similar performance results.     Just to be the other side's advocate, Elias lauded Westburg's tools on draft day and put 5X more bonus pool dollars on this college shortstop.    As sound as Elias' judgments have generally been these first 4-5 years, for me that's a meaningful separator in how the Club envisions these player's talents working at the MLB level.

Both prospects have progressed very well, and I hope the science of decision making gets informed how they both perform as middle infield starters sometimes over the next few months.

Money as tight as it is, Elias on some level for me is really only conducting the meta negotiation with franchise cornerstones now.     Adley will never say a bad word about anyone, but I'm sure he too has feelings around the true quality of say Hicks/O'Hearn/Mateo/Frazier v. Cowser/Kjerstad/Ortiz/Westburg, and is also gathering in data as Year 2 of the opening 6 of his career continues.

Six weeks to the Trade Deadline, showcasing everyone as well as possible probably sticks as a main priority.

[Just Regular]

16 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Ortiz is on the 40 man and can play a MLB level SS. That’s the difference right now. 

I do agree this is probably a bigger deal IRL than it feels like to us just watching the day to day.     Westburg (and Kjerstad) will gain parity with Ortiz in that respect this offseason, and after the Trade Deadline it becomes a purer question of who do you think can perform best in the 2023 competition.

A Westburg promotion might constrain his asset value a little bit, but one of the biggest choke points and decision points there will be over in six weeks.

[Matt Bennett]

It's been a bad debut for Ortiz. 0 walks, 9 strikeouts. 1 extra base hit in 13 games. But of course it's too early to judge. 

I wanted to see Westburg before Ortiz just because of time spent at AAA. But 40 man roster squabbles.

 

[Sydnor]

I split my time between my primary residence and our place in VA Beach. I saw Westburg and Ortiz both play last year at the end of the season and this year in April. I’m not a scout, but Ortiz is not a light hitting middle infielder. He drives the ball. Westburg has a little more over the fence pop, but Ortiz can take people out from gap to gap. I have seen him go out to right center in Norfolk. To these eyes, he swings and misses less and has more range and a better arm defensively.

I have written numerous posts basically saying the same thing I’m saying now (citing stats such as wRC+ and OPS, etc.), which is that you can think Ortiz is a better prospect both in the field and at the plate. I personally do. I’m not knocking Westburg, I just really like the way Ortiz plays the game.

Also, if Joey can’t get ABs, I’m not sure why people think Westburg will be a higher priority, particularly given that Westburg isn’t as good as Ortiz defensively anywhere on the dirt. As I have discussed previously and has been discussed in this thread, Westburg isn’t in a different tier offensively, he just hits more HRs. He just has more of a hype train behind him with the MASN guys and has been more highly rated by MLB and BA in their prospect rankings (Fangraphs rates Ortiz higher).

[Frobby]

Worth noting that you’re catching Westburg at a bit of a low point, as he’s been slumping the last 7 games or so.  Before that he was at .993 OPS and his offensive advantage over Ortiz was a bit more clear.  He’s been over 1.000 at times.   

However, I think it’s a fair question.  They’ve both had good offensive numbers the last 3 years.   I think it’s foolhardy to judge Ortiz on the 33 sporadic PA he’s had in 13 major league games, spread out over a couple of months.   At the same time, we’ve seen quite a few players have difficulty translating their Norfolk success to the majors.  
 

[Mr-splash]

This is why Frazier was brought in. To raise the floor. The move is looking good right now. In playoff contention and Ortiz is playing like hot garbage.