15 position players…who goes?

[Three Run Homer]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I would be very hesitant to trade Cowser. He’s out too rated prospect not named Jackson Holliday.

If you are willing to consider moving him, who do you think that it should be for? (Like a specific player/pitcher)

I would also be hesitant to trade Cowser.   If the O's want to trade for a number 1 starter then they might have to consider doing it.   Hard to name a specific player who is plausible because most or all of the teams that have number one starters are still in the playoff hunt.  In terms quality, I would only consider trading Cowser if we were getting someone of the caliber of Ohtani or Scherzer back.  

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I would also be hesitant to trade Cowser.   If the O's want to trade for a number 1 starter then they might have to consider doing it.   Hard to name a specific player who is plausible because most or all of the teams that have number one starters are still in the playoff hunt.  In terms quality, I would only consider trading Cowser if we were getting someone of the caliber of Ohtani or Scherzer back.  

Scherzer has not been himself this year and it looks like that train is nearing the end of its line, so I definitely would be rushing to do that because of the value exchange. Plus the Mets are not going to sell/rebuild/move him. 

As far as Ohtani goes, the Angels said that they are not going to trade him either. Plus again, it would be hard to justify 2 months of Ohtani (even with all his greatness) as compared to 6 years of Cowser. There’s no way the total net WAR would be close in either trade scenario. 

I’m not sure that I would even be okay giving up Westburg in the trade scenarios mentioned. Scherzer who I’m not sure is still very good and how much he has left, and Ohtani you are only getting 2 months of him.

[Just Regular]

With Mayo breaking out and Mountcastle down, it seems like there is a talent gap between...

C Adley, 1B Mayo, SS Holliday, 3B Gunnar, LF Cowser, CF Mullins, RF Hays, DH Kjerstad

...and others, leaving even Arb4 Santander under the $$$/WAR microscope for next season.

2B take your pick of Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Prieto.

If Mayo keeps 3B, its possible the jobs could become 3B Mayo, SS Gunnar, 2B Holliday and then the other infielders still here face a big challenge, and Santander fits the 2024 lineup.     

The pitching richest Trade Deadline scenarios might involve lots of the 2B candidates being moved.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

With Mayo breaking out and Mountcastle down, it seems like there is a talent gap between...

C Adley, 1B Mayo, SS Holliday, 3B Gunnar, LF Cowser, CF Mullins, RF Hays, DH Kjerstad

...and others, leaving even Arb4 Santander under the $$$/WAR microscope for next season.

2B take your pick of Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Prieto.

If Mayo keeps 3B, its possible the jobs could become 3B Mayo, SS Gunnar, 2B Holliday and then the other infielders still here face a big challenge, and Santander fits the 2024 lineup.     

The pitching richest Trade Deadline scenarios might involve lots of the 2B candidates being moved.

Unless Mayo projects as a better 3B than Gunnar or Gunnar projects as a better SS than Holliday. Which I have not heard from a SINGLE talent evaluator, I don’t see any way Mayo “keeps 3B”. If he makes it to the Orioles and stays there, it will most likely be at 1B. 

I agree with your bigger point though, the trade to happen is most likely from one or more of the projected/future 2B.

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Unless Mayo projects as a better 3B than Gunnar or Gunnar projects as a better SS than Holliday. Which I have not heard from a SINGLE talent evaluator, I don’t see any way Mayo “keeps 3B”. If he makes it to the Orioles and stays there, it will most likely be at 1B. 

Yes that configuration probably involves a defensive tradeoff, but it isn't a Web Gems competition, and Runs Scored is also part of the puzzle.     

There is value for the team if a strong Bat can cover a position with more defensive spectrum value, even if they aren't Brooks or Manny.    Tony's last report on Mayo's 3B defense was encouraging, and if he can cover it it may present the opportunity to use more of someone like Santander and less of someone like Mateo.

[Bemorewins]

23 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Yes that configuration probably involves a defensive tradeoff, but it isn't a Web Gems competition, and Runs Scored is also part of the puzzle.     

There is value for the team if a strong Bat can cover a position with more defensive spectrum value, even if they aren't Brooks or Manny.    Tony's last report on Mayo's 3B defense was encouraging, and if he can cover it it may present the opportunity to use more of someone like Santander and less of someone like Mateo.

I don’t get the correlation. 

Holliday wasn’t drafted 1:1 to play 2B, so SS is going to be a given for him unless something catastrophic happens. Gunnar isn’t going to play 2B either, so then 3B becomes his position as both Gunnar and Holliday are superior players to Mayo (not to take anything away from Mayo), but both those guys are #1 caliber rated prospects in the sport. That leaves 2B and 1B open. Mayo doesn’t have to the profile to handle middle infield so 2B is out. The natural projection is 1B for him in this org. Now, if he is moved to another org maybe he will play 3B? But that’s not very likely to happen here.

[NCRaven]

Mayo is athletic enough and has a good enough arm to play right field.  He’s right handed so that balances out Cowser CF and Kjerstad LF.  I’d rather have a left handed glove at 1B if we’re looking for Mountcastle’s replacement.  Unfortunately, Kjerstad and Dylan Beavers are both lefty bats and righty gloves.

Edited June 21, 2023 by NCRaven

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

You ask a question and then answer it with a rebuttal? So, it appears that you are not interested in engaging in any real dialogue or meaningful exchange.

All I can say to you is that, you don’t bench somebody preemptively for an unknown. Elias is not going to do that nor should he. How many examples in the history of the game can you point to where that has happened before? What you are arguing/advocating for seems very unusual.

It’s one thing to give a guy his spot back who is established and was playing well before injury, like Mullins. But you want a guy bench who is doing very well so that we can replace him with a guy who’s done nothing at this level, who may be good in time but may struggle out of the gate like more talented prospects have done before him (Henderson, Rutschman, Rodriguez, not to mention Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., Spencer Torkelson, Anthony Volpe, etc.

Do you respond to a question by simply repeating the position that's been challenged and call it a discussion?

If you're playing O's GM which is implicit in the OP, then you ultimately have to make a call on Aaron Hicks.  You can do the obvious thing by "riding the hot hand" and avoid criticism, but you also buy into the inevitable regression.  Right now Hicks has put up an OPS+ of 191 as an Oriole and 97 for his career.  We all know where he's headed.  So do you ride his 2023 back down to 97?  If so why?  The question you keep avoiding is at what point do you pull the plug?  I pull it when Mullins returns and award Hicks his prize which is to replace McKenna on the team.  He was acquired as a temporary fix and he outperformed expectations - great, he'll still get playing time but he's not the future.   Cowser is the future unless he's traded and if that happens then this whole part of the discussion is moot anyway.

My "rebuttal" is simply me stating my position so you know the reason why I'm challenging yours, otherwise I would be trolling.  And I'm not really challenging it, just wondering when Hicks loses his luster for you which is another way of saying how much pain do you think the O's need to tolerate as Hicks returns to his normal mediocre but sometimes useful self. 

BTW Henderson was called up in 2022 and put up an OPS+ of 125 over his first month of playing every day.  Corbin Carroll also succeeded right away and I could find others...  early struggles wouldn't be a surprise but it's not a given.

[crawjo]

Hicks was a very smart signing. I do think he can be a very useful bench bat and occasional starter moving forward for the rest of the year. In fact, I think they should try to give him fairly regular at bats moving forward, until he shows he doesn't deserve them. 

It's going to be a challenge managing playing time, unless and until another starter goes on the IL. I think this is a good problem because it means that several players (Hicks, O'Hearn, Mountcastle, Urias, Mateo, Frazier) are going to have to earn their playing time. 

I would be sorely tempted to dangle someone like Cowser in front of the Angels and see if you can get Ohtani. No, the Orioles will never "win" that trade from a WAR perspective, but we have lots of talented young players and Ohtani might win you a pennant. 

[G54377]

Cowser just has star written all over him. Unless I'm getting a blockbuster ace with many years of control, Cowser (and Holliday for that matter but we aren't trading him anyway) I'm keeping in my pocket.

Edited June 22, 2023 by G54377

[G54377]

I'd go with Ortiz at SS, platoon Frazier and Urias at 2B, keep Mateo on the bench (until we find some other place for him).

Edited June 22, 2023 by G54377

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, G54377 said:

Cowser just has star written all over him. Unless I'm getting a blockbuster ace with many years of control, Cowser (and Holliday for that matter but we aren't trading him anyway) I'm keeping in my pocket.

I feel like Cowser replacing Santander, and Santander moving to 1B/DH plus Ortiz replacing Mateo and a trade for bullpen help has jjust as much a chance of improving the O's playoff/WS odds as trading for Ohtani.  Small upgrades in multiple areas can beat a big upgrade in one area.  I feel this is academic because the Angels aren't trading Ohtani while in the playoff race.

[Bemorewins]

From being on this board as much as I am, there appears to be two schools of thought amongst O’s fans as far as the direction to take the team in.

Some fans don’t want to trade any prospects of consequence (for various reasons) and other fans want to take on extraordinary risk(s) (like trying to trade for Ohtani) trying to go for the big prize at “any cost”.

I’m somewhere in the middle, I want the team to try to improve during the trade deadline window because I don’t believe that what we have now can win it all. I know that we have done well in the regular season against certain teams but when I look at a fully healthy/staffed Yankees roster, I want no parts of them in the postseason. Same for the Rangers and most certainly the Rays. IMO each of those teams is better built to win short series than we are. So yes I want the O’s to try to acquire a starter to lineup in a game 1/5/7 scenario who gives us a good chance of success. (I’m sorry, as much as some want to try to talk themselves into Wells, he ain’t that, at least not IMO.)

That’s why I don’t mind giving up a prospect or 2 of value. However, I don’t want us to trade away future potential franchise cornerstones in Holliday or Cowser, especially not for players who can only help us in the very short term. If we were deeper in to our run and we needed that one piece to get over the finish line, I would be all for acquiring an Ohtani. But the value proposition is not there for me, when we are talking about 2/3 months of a player (even if it’s a once in a lifetime player like him) for 6 years of a potential all-star. 

If we had a better or at least a decent owner that may be something to consider, but with the horror show we have as ownership, I don’t think that it is wise to take on that type of risk.

[Safelykept]

16 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

My view is you ride the hot hands (Hicks and O'Hearn) until they regress to their means and if that means Cowser and Westburg stay in the minors for now, they stay in the minors for now. 

Saying that, both Mateo and Frazier can be dropped from this lineup without missing a beat. Frazier would be a good bench player and we can hope Mateo will be though he could sulk and need to eventually be DFA's where some team like Oakland will snatch him up.

Once Hicks slows up and becomes the 4th outfielder he's really here to be, Cowser can move into RF with Santander going to DH on non Adley DH days. Adley can also play 1B if needed and was pretty decent a few year back and could fill in there on occasion vs DHing to give his catching a break. 

It may come down to Urias and Mateo at some point. I think Ortiz gives the Orioles the option to move on from Mateo because his defense will be just as good and he can't hit worse. 

Outfield is crowded now will be Moreso when Mullins comes back. Cowser will depend on Mountcastle If there is Platoon at first, there is  no room for Cowser. There not going to put Santander full time DH, now if he has to drop down and platoon with O'Hearn at first that opens the for Cowser to be 4th outfield Give everybody a day off in the outfield, Occasional DH would give him 3 or four starts a week. Ortiz for Mateo? I can't imagine what there waiting for. Guess it's possible to have less offense than Mateo the last 2 months but unlikely. If the glove is similar, then it's a free bite at the apple. The speed factor might be more off the bench because he does not have to get on base you can put him on base. Its long way from playoffs but as the bench expands by 1 or 2 players, he'll be on somebody post season roster.

[sportsfan8703]

It’s a really nice lineup right now with great balance, and defense. 
 

1. Mullins L CF

2. Adley S C

3. Gunnar L 3B

4. Santander S DH

5. O’Hearn L 1B

6. Hays R LF

7. Hicks S RF

8. Frazier L 2B

9. Mateo R SS

Urias, Lester, McKenna, Benboom

This is going to be fun. Eventually we can go Cowser over O’Hearn, Westburg over Mateo with Gunnar at SS. Eventually….