Bowden: Top 100 guys on GMs minds for trades

[Orioles0615]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There’s a lot to weigh here.

Mateo and Frazier provide you real bench value in a year where you are contending. What can they can get back that would make you deal them while sacrificing that bench value?

Agree with Bowden that Mateo could have value as part of a package.

Urias is similar but he’s better and he is your insurance policy throughout the IF. 
 

The 2 OFers are obviously the hardest to trade in a contending year, especially since Hays has been arguably their best player.

That said, neither has a history of reliability or durability and it wouldn’t surprise me if Elias sees this as an opportunity to sell high, ala Lopez last year, and getting Cowser everyday at bats.  If buyer to buyer trades are what is going to need to happen, this becomes a real possibility imo.

I don’t see them moving Urias, Hays or Santander for anyone who can’t help them this year.

The probablem with Mateo and Fraizer providing bench value is while they are here they will never be bench players they will always start and be run into the ground no matter how bad they get

[deward]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It would be ideal if Hall could just be that reliever this year. We should definitely give him a legit look as a reliever before the deadline. He can always go back to starting after this season. Even if he’s not a SP going forward, that’s still 6 years of control of a lefty pitcher with options. 
 

I’d also give Darwinzon Hernandez and Wandisson Charles chances before we go making a deal. They’re two really live arms. 

That would be great, but they haven't seemed inclined to pursue that.

[forphase1]

27 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

 

I wonder why Bowden didn't have Mountcastle in this group.

Probably due to having little to no trade value.   At least Mateo brings defense and speed.  Mountcastle current doesn't bring much of anything other than hitting just LHP.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I just don’t ever remember contenders, outside of TB, trading away MLB pieces at the deadline. That weren’t salary dumps. 

That’s because there are usually enough sellers where this isn’t necessary.

And that could be the case this year as well.

As of right now, this is trending in the direction of being a very unique trading deadline, so we may see things that just don’t normally happen.

I have heard them talk about this a lot on MLB Radio and it’s not just the hosts taking about it, it’s other GMs too. This is a very real possibility right now.

But it is fluid.

[btdart20]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the best prospect I would be willing to deal this deadline is Hall.

Hall, Stowers, Norby, Haskin, Mateo and Prieto are guys that likely have varying degrees of value that I would be looking to move. 

Is Hall really going to get anything given how public his issues/loss of velo has been?  Mateo is a niche piece.  Teams might value Norby or Prieto.  I don't think Haskin carries much trade value more than a throw-in.

4 minutes ago, dzorange said:

I don't think Elias can get away with selling high on those guys without getting a return that is clearly meant to improve the team's playoff chances this year.

They sold high at the deadline, as they should have and the return they got for Mancini and Lopez was pretty awesome. But they took flack from both fans and the national media for selling away two productive favorites in the middle of a playoff push.

Then this past offseason people took Elias' comments on "lifting off" however they took them, and he didn't deliver a notable starting pitcher to Baltimore. I'm on board with that, and it's worked out so far to a degree, but after striking out (in the fans minds) two out of two times, I don't think it would be appropriate to try this again.

Urias isn't playing great this year, but is a solid player coming off a Gold Glove season. Santander has locked up the middle of the order for years now. Hays has proven to be an MLB level starter and has been hot all year. I don't think the fans would take kindly to getting trading these guys, especially the latter two, without getting an obviously good return.

Normally I don't think you should pivot just because of public perception - keep sticking to your plan that has had good results in recent times. But I think it's different when they're heading into July seventeen games over .500 and have been flirting with the second best record in baseball all year long.

I don't see Frazier getting much of a return, I do think he has value as well. I think the only reason they would get rid of him is to open the door for Westburg, Ortiz, and Urias. It would be addition by subtraction, but Frazier does have value.

Do fans really see two strikeouts by Elias?  Or do we see a winning MLB team clearly in playoff contention having fun more times than not on any given day?  

I agree he's not trading Hays/Santander in season and it has nothing to do with fans (but scoring runs).  But Urias is absolutely tradeable.  He's seen as a good player, but not crucial to our success.  He's much more marketable than Frazier.  Frazier is tradeable, but he doesn't have 'team control' value.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Please no more Irvin. My point is that our spare parts have value. Heck, Hernaiz might be a top 100 prospect this offseason. 

The value that spare part brought back has been worth -.6 rWAR.

Yes, the O's spare parts have value, but I think a lot of the fans here don't want to trade the more valuable trade parts, they want to trade down the line spare parts.  Basically whomever they don't think will make it.

Hall's current value is more akin to a lottery pick than a top 100 guy.  At least as long as he's topping out closer to 95 than 99.

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, another name you could add to this is Mountcastle. I know things don’t look great now but teams can see his statcast numbers, see that he has a lot of power and isn’t that expensive. He could have some value in a trade as well.

Yes, Ryan Mountcastle and his production that has declined each year culminating in a .686 OPS this year has tremendous value.  I'm sure teams would value his statcast numbers and his power because when he's not striking out at balls 3 and 4, he might get lucky and run into a fastball sometime.

 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, btdart20 said:

Is Hall really going to get anything given how public his issues/loss of velo has been?  Mateo is a niche piece.  Teams might value Norby or Prieto.  I don't think Haskin carries much trade value more than a throw-in.

Do fans really see two strikeouts by Elias?  Or do we see a winning MLB team clearly in playoff contention having fun more times than not on any given day?  

I agree he's not trading Hays/Santander in season and it has nothing to do with fans (but scoring runs).  But Urias is absolutely tradeable.  He's seen as a good player, but not crucial to our success.  He's much more marketable than Frazier.  Frazier is tradeable, but he doesn't have 'team control' value.

Hall clearly has decreased value but doesn’t mean he has no value and doesn’t mean he can’t be a piece in a deal.

A guy like Haskin could definitely be one of the pieces in a deal for a rental or a reliever. People are acting like these teams get top prospects for rentals and role players. That largely doesn’t happen. They get secondary pieces that perhaps have some upside.

Thats just the way it is.

Look at last years deadline. You don’t see a lot of top level prospects dealt in trades.

https://www.mlb.com/news/every-2022-mlb-trade-deadline-deal

[sportsfan8703]

Mountcastle for Jorge Lopez?

[btdart20]

8 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Probably due to having little to no trade value.   At least Mateo brings defense and speed.  Mountcastle current doesn't bring much of anything other than hitting just LHP.

The could be true.  I don't know who the other 95 guys on the list are though.  100 MLB players is a pretty broad net he's casting as tradeable players.

[Camden_yardbird]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see why it’s crazy if you feel you have the bats to replace them and you value the youth more than those guys.

We also have to question if these guys will hold up the whole year. 
 

I think it makes more sense to deal Santander but I see the argument for both.

But the key is that you get better elsewhere. If you trade a 3 WAR OFer for a 3 WAR pitcher, have you gotten worse?

Is Cowser or Westburg one of "the bats to replace them"?  There are a million examples of why these prospects shouldn't be counted on for productive MLB ABs yet.  Gunnar may be object lesson #1.  Jared Kelenic, Jo Adell, Jordan Walker also come to mind.

[7Mo]

20 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Is Cowser or Westburg one of "the bats to replace them"?  There are a million examples of why these prospects shouldn't be counted on for productive MLB ABs yet.  Gunnar may be object lesson #1.  Jared Kelenic, Jo Adell, Jordan Walker also come to mind.

Is there a better time to bring them up? Do you think next year would be better?

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Is Cowser or Westburg one of "the bats to replace them"?  There are a million examples of why these prospects shouldn't be counted on for productive MLB ABs yet.  Gunnar may be object lesson #1.  Jared Kelenic, Jo Adell, Jordan Walker also come to mind.

And there are plenty of examples of guys who do help. Hell, defensively alone they are upgrades

Edited June 22, 2023 by Sports Guy

[RVAOsFan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t disagree about Hicks but definitely disagree about the first part.

And again, even if runs scored goes down slightly but runs prevented goes up, you are still fine.

Hays and Santander have been 2 of our top 4? Best most consistent bats on the season. I don't think you can rely on rookies with no MLB experience to step in and replace that right away.

[Sanity Check]

1 hour ago, RVAOsFan said:

I think a Santander trade this offseason is almost a guarantee.  Will be interesting to see what they can get for him.

I doubt that it would be enough to make many people on here happy....