Bowden: Top 100 guys on GMs minds for trades

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think you should bring them up this year but I don't think you can "replace bats".  Injury is on thing, but if you say trade Hays or Santander because you think Cowser can come up and provide comparable production, that's asanine. If they have any sort of learning curve you have cut off the ability to go back to the guys who had proven production.

Now this applies less so in the Westburg case where I think you can argue he could immediately replace Mateo.  That said, you need to see if you can any value for Mateo (I think they can) but teams aren't ready to deal yet.

I think you are really overvaluing and undervaluing guys. You don’t think Cowser can come up and be worth 1 WAR, which is what Santander has been worth?

What about Hays?  Are you buying him as an 850+ OPS guy the whole year?

And again, you and others are ignoring defense.

I don’t quite get this site sometimes. We have a lot of smart people on here but people seem to only look at on aspect of play and continuously overrate players that 5 months ago, they have dealt in a heartbeat or totally disregarded at all.

Now a few months of good play occurs and suddenly they can’t be replaced. It’s very odd to me.

[webbrick2010]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Renato Nunez got waived by Elias with a career 107 OPS+ as an Oriole and Mountcastle has a 109 OPS+ for his career.

Mountcastle’s performance has been declining each season since his rookie season. No team is trading anything of value to secure Mountcastle in a trade. 

Mountcastle would be a good fit for a team looking for a DH against LH pitching, and also a short porch to LF. Could that be the Astro's. We dumped Mancini on them last year. Mountcastle has very similar skill set.

[btdart20]

6 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Mountcastle would be a good fit for a team looking for a DH against LH pitching, and also a short porch to LF. Could that be the Astro's. We dumped Mancini on them last year. Mountcastle has very similar skill set.

And Abreu has been a shell of himself too.

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

And Abreu has been a shell of himself too.

Yep Mountcastle would be an upgrade on Abreu, especially in that stadium. We should be taking a long look at RP in the Astro's system

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Mountcastle would be a good fit for a team looking for a DH against LH pitching, and also a short porch to LF. Could that be the Astro's. We dumped Mancini on them last year. Mountcastle has very similar skill set.

At some point though with trades and DFA’s, you have to be careful about helping out a competitor. 
 

The trade picture is just too muddied right now with so many teams still in it. Especially in our own league. Bowden basically named 5 players on every team in baseball that could be traded. 
 

Giolito and Chapman would be my targets as of now, but I don’t think I’d like the price. Plus, Chapman can get ran on. 
 

The market is just too tough right now to predict. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

At some point though with trades and DFA’s, you have to be careful about helping out a competitor. 
 

 

If the best trade for you also helps someone else that isn't a reason not to do it.

There are three wildcards available.

You aren't just competing against one team.

 

[24fps]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think Haskin is some great prospect but he’s a top 20ish prospect in a loaded system and has sOme potential 4th OFer capabilities. Players like him are traded a lot on deadline deals for relievers/role players/rentals.

No one is saying we are getting Pedro Martinez in his prime for these guys but for the players rumored to be available and guys who could help us?

Norby, Haskin and Stowers for Gioloto and maybe a reliever?  Are they really getting more than that? I have my doubts.

Giolito is a FA next year and CWS is going nowhere so a lot of teams are going to be checking in on him.  If the O's can get Gioilito AND a reliever for Norby, Haskins and Stowers then Elias should be all over that, yesterday.  Assuming of course that he's serious about this season.  Hard to tell with Elias sometimes, isn't it?

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

Giolito is a FA next year and CWS is going nowhere so a lot of teams are going to be checking in on him.  If the O's can get Gioilito AND a reliever for Norby, Haskins and Stowers then Elias should be all over that, yesterday.  Assuming of course that he's serious about this season.  Hard to tell with Elias sometimes, isn't it?

The White Sox are 5.5 GB. We’re 5 GB. They’re in a much weaker division. They’ve just underperformed and have had a lot of injuries. 
 

A lot can change in 5-6 weeks. Mateo was having a breakout year. 

[LTO's]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you are really overvaluing and undervaluing guys.

Don't you think that's maybe what you're doing with what is a 50-55FV prospect with very real questions about whether he can handle LHP/be a plus defender at the big league level? 

Santander is at 119 wRC+ right now and was at 120 last year. He's essentially top 50 in all of baseball at that mark which I think is totally reasonable to expect throughout the rest of the season. Sure he's not a good outfielder but his bat plays and is important to this team. Despite the condescending manner in which you phrased the question, I think most scouts would actually disagree with you with regards to Cowser coming up and outplaying him. Maybe if they platooned him and picked his spots carefully but even then I doubt it. Would love to be wrong though.

This FO obviously saw something in Hays which is why they tendered him a contract this year when they could've easily not. Is he going to end up as a 5 fWAR guy? Not sure. But he's flashed numerous times before and this year he's hit the ball hard and his defense has improved from the first month of the season. Honestly, as unlikely as it might be, I'd rather see Kjerstad get the chance first as I think he's underrated defensively, has more pop, is older and has significantly less platoon risk imo. 

 

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Don't you think that's maybe what you're doing with what is a 50-55FV prospect with very real questions about whether he can handle LHP/be a plus defender at the big league level? 

Are we talking about the guy who's hitting .353/.465/.588/1.053 against LHP in AAA?  I think he's answered that concern as well as any prospect can.  The LHP concerns were because his 2022 splits against LHP were overly influenced by his time in Aberdeen (and he's not the only LHH to have that issue in Aberdeen).

[Sports Guy]

Cowser has an OPs over 1000 vs lefties this year.

Santander has a 742 OPs vs righties so far this year and it was 720 last year. 
 

In other words, Santander has been pretty mediocre Vs righties over a larger sample size abs Cowser has shown a lot of improvement, albeit in a smaller sample size, vs lefties.

Cowser would come up and likely be a better all around player than Santander.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Cowser has an OPs over 1000 vs lefties this year.

Santander has a 742 OPs vs righties so far this year and it was 720 last year. 
 

In other words, Santander has been pretty mediocre Vs righties over a larger sample size abs Cowser has shown a lot of improvement, albeit in a smaller sample size, vs lefties.

Cowser would come up and likely be a better all around player than Santander.

With Mullins healthy, and Hicks/OHearn playing well, there just isn’t a spot for Cowser. It’s a shame he was hurt when Mullins got hurt, but then we probably don’t lure Hicks here. 
 

Catching depth is probably our only position player weakness right now. It would’ve been nice if Torrens would’ve stuck around. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

With Mullins healthy, and Hicks/OHearn playing well, there just isn’t a spot for Cowser. It’s a shame he was hurt when Mullins got hurt, but then we probably don’t lure Hicks here. 
 

Catching depth is probably our only position player weakness right now. It would’ve been nice if Torrens would’ve stuck around. 

There is absolutely a spot. 
 

Can we please stop treating OHearn and especially Hicks as something they aren’t.

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Are we talking about the guy who's hitting .353/.465/.588/1.053 against LHP in AAA?  I think he's answered that concern as well as any prospect can.  The LHP concerns were because his 2022 splits against LHP were overly influenced by his time in Aberdeen (and he's not the only LHH to have that issue in Aberdeen).

He had 3 months worth of games outside of Aberdeen last year. His stats against LHP were absolutely dreadful. It's great that he's doing much better this year but it's 43 PA.......That's nothing. And the quality of pitcher he's facing in Norfolk is nowhere near the level he'll face in the bigs. That should be plenty obvious at this point. 

He's a good, maybe great, prospect. But we can't just sit here and act like there aren't plenty of reputable scouts out there that have questions about his splits. I highly doubt 43 PA are enough to absolutely answer those questions. I'm not being overly critical of the kid. He does a bunch of other things well. But if I'm Mike Elias and I'm thinking about the rest of the year, I'd much rather stick with Tony and Hays. No question. Saying that, I'd still like for him to come up at some point and get some chances. Just not at the expense of those two which is what I was responding to. 

[btdart20]

26 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Giolito is a FA next year and CWS is going nowhere so a lot of teams are going to be checking in on him.  If the O's can get Gioilito AND a reliever for Norby, Haskins and Stowers then Elias should be all over that, yesterday.  Assuming of course that he's serious about this season.  Hard to tell with Elias sometimes, isn't it?

I just looked at Giolito's stats and they are mid-rotation fluent.  Which would be an improvement over Kremer, but on tier with our other SPs (Gibson, Wells, Bradish).  I don't see a wow factor that would spark Elias' interest.  That said, maybe it's a pitch mix thing because Gio's peak seasons were 2019-2020 when he threw the changeup more.  Maybe Elias sees something there.