Bowden: Top 100 guys on GMs minds for trades

[Chavez Ravine]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Did I say they were required to do it, or that they did it because they thought they owed the player something?  No.  They just want to be damned sure that a player who has helped them can’t help them anymore.   

Agreed. It’s easy to overthink. Sometimes you just have to stop worrying and learn to love Hicks and O’Hearn.

[24fps]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Did I say they were required to do it, or that they did it because they thought they owed the player something?  No.  They just want to be damned sure that a player who has helped them can’t help them anymore.   

No.  You made a global statement that included all teams asserting they will have the same response to a specific situation and then apply the same remedy - and framed it as a fact.  My apologies if I missed the nuances.

It looks like what you're saying is another version of the "hot hand" narrative that to my way of thinking requires an additional step beyond simply invoking the phrase.  How much time is long enough?  A player cooling off at the plate potentially has consequences in the W-L column and it certainly will if it's allowed to go on for too long.  Elias is 100% entitled to step in and prevent that if he thinks it's warranted.  Making a decision that can only be judged in hindsight is scary, so the safe and expected response is to let things go on long enough "to be damned sure".  But that has a cost that I don't want to pay, so I'm saying that the Orioles will be better served if Elias feels completely free to pull the plug on a player's hot streak before the team eats the inevitable slump and does so, but that requires both conviction and the willingness to take a small risk.  I don't expect to see it.

[baltfan]

Most depressing part of this article is that KC is looking for young pitching for its relievers. 

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, Frobby said:

Did I say they were required to do it, or that they did it because they thought they owed the player something?  No.  They just want to be damned sure that a player who has helped them can’t help them anymore.   

Hicks can still play at times but Cowser should be up here and he should get most of the at bats in RF or LF once Mullins is back.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hicks can still play at times but Cowser should be up here and he should get most of the at bats in RF or LF once Mullins is back.

 

Hicks should be replacing McKenna, not Santander.  Cowser should be replacing Mountcastle, imo.  Obviously not directly, but most of Santander's ABs should come at 1B/DH, w/ Cowser going to LF and Hays moving to RF. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Hicks should be replacing McKenna, not Santander.  Cowser should be replacing Mountcastle, imo.  Obviously not directly, but most of Santander's ABs should come at 1B/DH, w/ Cowser going to LF and Hays moving to RF. 

Sure that’s fine. I have been saying for weeks that it’s about taking some at bats away from everyone because no one is truly separating themselves as must start everyday players.

Now, perhaps Hays has now done that but I would still be wary about his history of not being durable and give him at least one day off a week.

[Birds08]

Not overly related, but crazy that if the season ended today, Hays would win the AL batting title.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Hicks can still play at times but Cowser should be up here and he should get most of the at bats in RF or LF once Mullins is back.

 

I think that’s where we’ll end the year, but I doubt it happens until sometime after the ASB.

[24fps]

59 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Hicks should be replacing McKenna, not Santander.  Cowser should be replacing Mountcastle, imo.  Obviously not directly, but most of Santander's ABs should come at 1B/DH, w/ Cowser going to LF and Hays moving to RF. 

This is how I would play it too with one addition. Now that Mountcastle in on a rehab assignment, once the vertigo (or whatever it is) resolved, I would leave him down for a while to work on the increasingly glaring hole in his approach at the plate. I’m not ready to completely write him off or relegate him to weak side platoon just yet. 

[RVAOsFan]

I am fine with demoting McKenna but I am shipping Lester out before McKenna goes.

[Sydnor]

On 6/22/2023 at 10:42 AM, Sports Guy said:

That’s because he’s very overrated by the fan base.

Is it possible that you underrate Santander? You’ll say something like “he has only been worth 1.4 fWAR to this point, that’s not an everyday player.” I get it, he wasn’t great in April, since he has been consistently good and great for stretches. 

But I also think more nuance is required. Switch hitters with 30 HR pop don’t grow on trees. His 130 wRC+ is second on the team and his .357 wOBA is second on the team (not including Hicks and O’Hearn, who don’t have large enough samples). His defense is RF isn’t nearly as bad as people here seem to think at 4 DRS, a .3 UZR, a 1.7 UZR/150, and -1 OAA. The offense he provides to this lineup, is unlikely to be offset by some defensive gain in RF, particularly given that he’s DHing several times per week.

People love to say Mateo shouldn’t be playing everyday despite a .7 fWAR because he’s a black hole offensively. I don’t disagree with that. But if we can use nuance with Mateo and not just say “but fWAR!,” why can’t we use a little nuance with a guy who has numbers showing he’s been their second best hitter for the past 1.5 seasons?

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Is it possible that you underrate Santander? You’ll say something like “he has only been worth 1.4 fWAR to this point, that’s not an everyday player.” I get it, he wasn’t great in April, since he has been consistently good and great for stretches. 

But I also think more nuance is required. Switch hitters with 30 HR pop don’t grow on trees. His 130 wRC+ is second on the team and his .357 wOBA is second on the team (not including Hicks and O’Hearn, who don’t have large enough samples). His defense is RF isn’t nearly as bad as people here seem to think at 4 DRS, a .3 UZR, a 1.7 UZR/150, and -1 OAA. The offense he provides to this lineup, is unlikely to be offset by some defensive gain in RF, particularly given that he’s DHing several times per week.

People love to say Mateo shouldn’t be playing everyday despite a .7 fWAR because he’s a black hole offensively. I don’t disagree with that. But if we can use nuance with Mateo and not just say “but fWAR!,” why can’t we use a little nuance with a guy who has numbers showing he’s been their second best hitter for the past 1.5 seasons?

I think Santander is a good player and I’m glad we have him. He has a good power bat but he’s inconsistent in the rest of his offensive game.  

You don’t find me using any nuance with Mateo. He shouldn’t be playing.

Now, with that said, if Santander continues to show reliability and durability and can keep his OBP in the 330 or higher range, my opinion would change about him.

But he was at a 784 OPS 7-10 days ago. He’s very hot right now and showing that tremendous power but he has been very inconsistent his whole career and he is going to start to become more and more expensive and is a FA soon.

I think fans like him. Seems to be a good dude, well liked by the players, out there having fun..easy guy to root for.  But that doesn’t mean you value him at a level he’s not at.

Edited June 26, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Sydnor]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think Santander is a good player and I’m glad we have him. He has a good power bat but he’s inconsistent in the rest of his offensive game.  

You don’t find me using any nuance with Mateo. He shouldn’t be playing.

Now, with that said, if Santander continues to show reliability and durability and can keep his OBP in the 330 or higher range, my opinion would change about him.

But he was at a 784 OPS 7-10 days ago. He’s very hot right now and showing that tremendous power but he has been very inconsistent his whole career and he is going to start to become more and more expensive and is a FA soon.

I think fans like him. Seems to be a good dude, well liked by the players, out there having fun..easy guy to root for.  But that doesn’t mean you value him at a level he’s not at.

In the last 60 days, he has a .909 OPS. These guys aren’t metronomes who are going to be at +/- .020 of their finishing OPS all season. He had a bad start. He’ll probably cool off again.

Regardless, removing his bat from the lineup would have a significant impact if we look at the last 60 days. By way of comparison here are other players’ OPS over that time frame:

Rutschman .754

Henderson .868

Hays .850

Mullins .827

Urias .698

Mountcastle .672

I don’t think they will trade Santander during the season, so I don’t think this really matters. Elias has said things in the past about his bat that leads me to believe he values him pretty highly for the lineup. In contrast with you, I think he’s often underrated by the fan base because he’s not one of the rising prospects, wasn’t acquired in a big trade, and didn’t rise though the system like Mullins and Hays. I could be wrong though. It’s just the vibe I get when I talk to people at games and when people think he should be the one to go to make room for Cowser.

 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

In the last 60 days, he has a .909 OPS. These guys aren’t metronomes who are going to be at +/- .020 of their finishing OPS all season. He had a bad start. He’ll probably cool off again.

Regardless, removing his bat from the lineup would have a significant impact if we look at the last 60 days. By way of comparison here are other players’ OPS over that time frame:

Rutschman .754

Henderson .868

Hays .850

Mullins .827

Urias .698

Mountcastle .672

I don’t think they will trade Santander during the season, so I don’t think this really matters. Elias has said things in the past about his bat that leads me to believe he values him pretty highly for the lineup. In contrast with you, I think he’s often underrated by the fan base because he’s not one of the rising prospects, wasn’t acquired in a big trade, and didn’t rise though the system like Mullins and Hays. I could be wrong though. It’s just the vibe I get when I talk to people at games and when people think he should be the one to go to make room for Cowser.

 

 But you are talking about the most recent sample size.

Generally speaking he has been a low OBP player with durability and reliability questions that plays an average at best OF and doesn’t give you a lot of extra value on the bases.

It’s not that he isn’t good, it’s whether or not he’s replaceable.  Maybe for this season, he’s not but if he ends the year with a 310ish OBP and misses 25 games in the second half, he ends up being the player he basically always has been.

[Sydnor]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 But you are talking about the most recent sample size.

Generally speaking he has been a low OBP player with durability and reliability questions that plays an average at best OF and doesn’t give you a lot of extra value on the bases.

It’s not that he isn’t good, it’s whether or not he’s replaceable.  Maybe for this season, he’s not but if he ends the year with a 310ish OBP and misses 25 games in the second half, he ends up being the player he basically always has been.

Nobody on this team is irreplaceable, not even Adley. I’m talking about 60 days. Earlier this year, you said he should play 4 games per week based on a 20 game sample in April. He had a 120 wRC+ last year. He’s in his age 28 year. I believe that he is continuing to get better. I do think scoring runs matters, and he, helps the team do that. You said he was overrated. I disagree. I don’t think either of us is going to change the other’s mind. I probably shouldn’t have even gone down this road because I don’t think it provided any real value, and I don’t particularly want to argue with you because I do think you make good points on other topics.