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AL Rookie of the Year Watch

Aristotelian

By Aristotelian
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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27 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Gunnar is extending his WAR lead bit by bit. All three saw their OPS drop a bit in July. Would they give it to a 29 year old OF/DH? 

Gunnar Henderson 2.9 WAR, .241/.332/.795, 16 HR, 44 RBI

Josh Jung 2.4 WAR, .272/.321/.802, 20 HR, 61 RBI

Yoshida 1.8 WAR, .308/.371/.858, 12 HR, 53 RBI

I don’t think the RoY voters are “WAR slaves,” as @Moose Milliganwould put it.  So, I don’t think Gunnar’s WAR lead means too much.  

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InsideCoroner
InsideCoroner

That’s awful for Jung and the Rangers, I always thought Gunnar had a solid chance to win ROY outright but you hate to see such a young talented player get sidelined like that.

Malike
Malike

Yoshida has the advantage of playing pro ball at a high level for 7 years before coming here. He's 30 years old and a "rookie". The main advantage he has is he plays for Boston.

Uli2001
Uli2001

I think there should be a requirement that a "rookie" by definition is someone who hasn't played at the top level of pro baseball in any country.

Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think the RoY voters are “WAR slaves,” as @Moose Milliganwould put it.  So, I don’t think Gunnar’s WAR lead means too much.  

I think MVP voters are WAR slaves, Froberto Duran.  It'll be interesting to see who highlights WAR in the ROY vote this year.  If the ROY voters were WAR slaves they'd have given it to Adley over Julio Rodriguez last year.

I bet that whoever's uncomfortable voting for Yoshida because he's from Japan and that, somehow, makes him ineligible for ROY votes will hold WAR against him.  Of course, I don't believe there are a lot of ROY voters out there who think that a player from Japan somehow has an advantage (Ichiro, Ohtani, Sasaki, Nomo), so Yoshida still, IMO, is the frontrunner.  

Triston Casas is coming on strong in the slash race, though.

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think the RoY voters are “WAR slaves,” as @Moose Milliganwould put it.  So, I don’t think Gunnar’s WAR lead means too much.  

Of course not, and I didn't claim that, just stated the fact he is leading in that stat. It is the best approximation of their overall production and reflects offensive and defensive contribution which should be considered. In other words, the components included in WAR are meaningful. And 0.5 WAR is significant, IMO. 

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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2 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

Elias has taken Henderson, Westburg, Haskin, Beavers, and Norby in the 30-45 range. 

Could have 3 picks in that range if we get Comp A and Gunnar wins ROTY (Mariners got #29 for Julio winning). Keep that farm system stocked.

Where would we get a Comp pick?

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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8 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

Elias has taken Henderson, Westburg, Haskin, Beavers, and Norby in the 30-45 range. 

Could have 3 picks in that range if we get Comp A and Gunnar wins ROTY (Mariners got #29 for Julio winning). Keep that farm system stocked.

The O's would get a pick if Gunnar finished top 2, right?

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luismatos4prez All-Star

luismatos4prez

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Just now, Aristotelian said:

Where would we get a Comp pick?

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-draft-picks

IIRC, we get an A one year (Beavers last year) and a B the next year (Baumeister this year). So next year would be A.

Just now, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's would get a pick if Gunnar finished top 2, right?

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-prospect-promotion-incentive-rookie-year-cba/ja5ts8eaxcuv85xujnzriafb

He gets a year of service time if he finishes Top 2.

We only get the pick if he wins (and was on the OD roster).

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OriolesMagic83 Hangout Grand Counsel

OriolesMagic83

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I think Gunnar has to be neck and neck w/ Yoshida now.  He's pretty much erased the RBI difference and has a big lead in WAR.

Gunnar:  3.5 WAR, .243/.331/.478,  .808 OPS, 19 HR 51 RBI

Josh Jung:  2.4 WAR, .274/.323/.489, .813 OPS,  22 HR 67 RBI

Yoshida:  1.6 WAR,  .307/.366/.481, .848 OPS, 12 HR 54 RBI

Mountcastle's big HR and RBI totals did little to help him in his rookie year for defensively limited player.  I wonder if Yoshida will see the same effect?

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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21 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think Gunnar has to be neck and neck w/ Yoshida now.  He's pretty much erased the RBI difference and has a big lead in WAR.

Gunnar:  3.5 WAR, .243/.331/.478,  .808 OPS, 19 HR 51 RBI

Josh Jung:  2.4 WAR, .274/.323/.489, .813 OPS,  22 HR 67 RBI

Yoshida:  1.6 WAR,  .307/.366/.481, .848 OPS, 12 HR 54 RBI

Mountcastle's big HR and RBI totals did little to help him in his rookie year for defensively limited player.  I wonder if Yoshida will see the same effect?

The betting markets appear to have Gunnar a strong favorite over Yoshida. Better defense at premium position, more HR, higher WAR, and an actual rookie. 

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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On 7/19/2023 at 5:37 PM, Uli2001 said:

I think there should be a requirement that a "rookie" by definition is someone who hasn't played at the top level of pro baseball in any country.

So, not exactly the same thing, but Jackie Robinson had played some Negro League ball prior to winning the first ROY. And that was the highest level he was allowed to play at the time.

For me it's always been hard to deny someone who's previously played in Japan or Cuba or Mexico the ROY because Jackie pretty much set the precedent you can have played high-level ball elsewhere from day one of the award.

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banks703 Major Leaguer Rising Star

banks703

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8 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Also hurts the Rangers in the playoff chase too they currently have a 2.5 game lead over the Astros.

If only it could have occurred prior to the deadline. I wonder what we could have poached from their farm for Urias. 

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