How does Westburg get playing time vs RHP?

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

So basically what you are saying is that NONE of these objective evaluators knows anything and that the Orioles chose one over the other by some arbitrary means? 

You could be right for all I know. But is it reasonable to at least draw a rational conclusion that the consensus of the baseball talent evaluation community thinks that one is better than the other?

Again I am not advocating for one over the other, but just using objective standard to draw what I believe is a rational conclusion. It makes no difference to me which player was chosen over the other or if BOTH were traded. I choose to trust Elias talent evaluating skills over my own. The only outcome that I can about are the Ws/Ls of the Baltimore Orioles in their pursuit of becoming champions.

I'm not saying it's arbitrary how they rank these guys. Westburg is a slightly more well-regarded prospect than Ortiz because of his draft position, health, and power potential. He should be rated higher than Ortiz. 

But I'm saying, in 5-10 years it's entirely possible these guys have similar careers because their talent level is extremely close. What Ortiz lacks in power (and he doesn't lack it in AAA based on his .940 OPS), he makes up for in Mateo-level defensive ability at the most premium position in the game. They both make hard contact. There's really not a lot separating them. 

[Bemorewins]

Just now, interloper said:

I'm not saying it's arbitrary how they rank these guys. Westburg is a slightly more well-regarded prospect than Ortiz because of his draft position, health, and power potential. He should be rated higher than Ortiz. 

But I'm saying, in 5-10 years it's entirely possible these guys have similar careers because their talent level is extremely close. What Ortiz lacks in power (and he doesn't lack it in AAA based on his .940 OPS), he makes up for in Mateo-level defensive ability at the most premium position in the game. They both make hard contact. There's really not a lot separating them. 

That’s fine and I respect your observation/opinion.

Right now the Orioles felt that there was only room for one and the choose the one that they like more right now.

I’m fine with that.

[NCRaven]

The only prospect evaluation that matters is Elias's.  And, it's been pretty clear to me that he seems to rate Westburg higher than Ortiz.  First, Ortiz has gotten little to no run during his time with the Orioles.  And, second, they elected to have Westburg continue to play every day, including a significant amount of games at shortstop, while Ortiz sat on a bench.  They treated Ortiz like an up and down guy and Westburg like a real prospect.  We'll see...

[BRobinsonfan]

2 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Is Westburg REALLY that much of a better prospect than Ortiz?   I don't think so.  There is SOME gap there perhaps, but it isn't huge.  And we've seen how they have jerked Ortiz around IMO.  So nothing would surprise me really.

Westburg has 303 more AB's in the minors.  He leads Ortiz in OBP .371 to 352, SLG 506 to 444, OPS .831 vs. 796.  Westburg, at this point is the more complete hitter.

[deward]

13 minutes ago, owknows said:

Elias was neither pumping up, or emasculating his manager.

He volunteered the roles unsolicited.

I take him at his word.

 

I didn't say he WAS emasculating him, I said it would have been emasculating had he chosen to say something like that, which is why he never would, regardless of how the conversations go behind the scenes. 

I stand by my supposition that if Hyde and Elias weren't on the same page as to who should be playing, it would be a problem that Elias would correct.

[BRobinsonfan]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I just hope that Westburg comes up and has a couple monster games right away to force their hands.  Hit a bomb tonight, a couple doubles tomorrow...just crush it right away so the choice becomes obvious that they can't put Frazier back in the lineup.

Make them look stupid for preferring Frazier over him.  Make it so obvious that everyone knows.  

This x 1000! 

[forphase1]

8 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Westburg has 303 more AB's in the minors.  He leads Ortiz in OBP .371 to 352, SLG 506 to 444, OPS .831 vs. 796.  Westburg, at this point is the more complete hitter.

Sure, but Ortiz is a better defender.  Just how that washes out between the two of them is debatable of course.  Westburg is certainly a more complete hitter at this time, more power, though their .OPS this year is almost identical at AAA.

[BRobinsonfan]

34 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm not saying it's arbitrary how they rank these guys. Westburg is a slightly more well-regarded prospect than Ortiz because of his draft position, health, and power potential. He should be rated higher than Ortiz. 

But I'm saying, in 5-10 years it's entirely possible these guys have similar careers because their talent level is extremely close. What Ortiz lacks in power (and he doesn't lack it in AAA based on his .940 OPS), he makes up for in Mateo-level defensive ability at the most premium position in the game. They both make hard contact. There's really not a lot separating them. 

Ortiz has a .940 OPS in AAA in 257 ABs - a relatively small sample size.  Westburg has an .899 OPS in 711 ABs in AAA.  Over their entire minor league careers, in 300 more ABs Westburg is .831 OPS vs. .796 for Ortiz.  

Having said all that, I'd like to see Ortiz get more of an opportunity, but I understand why Westburg seems to be favored more highly at this point.   

Edited June 26, 2023 by BRobinsonfan

[Sydnor]

16 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Westburg has 303 more AB's in the minors.  He leads Ortiz in OBP .371 to 352, SLG 506 to 444, OPS .831 vs. 796.  Westburg, at this point is the more complete hitter.

The career numbers in the minors aren’t all that significant. Ortiz changed his swing after the 21 season and then tore a labrum that took him some time to recover from. All anybody is saying is that the offensive gap isn’t as significant as some people are making it out to be. Obviously, Elias disagrees, so it’s all moot.

[BRobinsonfan]

10 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

The career numbers in the minors aren’t all that significant. Ortiz changed his swing after the 21 season and then tore a labrum that took him some time to recover from. All anybody is saying is that the offensive gap isn’t as significant as some people are making it out to be. Obviously, Elias disagrees, so it’s all moot.

I had forgotten about the injury to Ortiz.  But I do think the minor-league numbers are significant. I think the O's front office values the experience gained by Westburg in the additional 450 ABs in AAA.  Rightly or wrongly, I think they view Ortiz as requiring a little more time at AAA and have used him in more of a taxi cab role.  Hopefully, he gets the chance to play at the MLB level more regularly in the near future. 

Edited June 26, 2023 by BRobinsonfan

[Aristotelian]

Westburg was arguably ready to start on the opening day roster. Westburg came into the season this year with more AAA AB's than Ortiz has now cumulatively between '22 and '23. Ortiz got the call first but he had only 100+ AAA AB's at the time, so he came up in a different role. No slight to him, just different circumstance and club need. 

If he gets to 1000 AB in AAA with .900+ OPS he can really start to gripe if he still getting the utility treatment. I bet if that is the case he will be back in a full time role and he will have nothing to complain about. 

Bigger picture, the overall story is the O's have really made both guys work to make it to the big leagues. 

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean, I don’t see how you don’t see how. You clearly do.

So, it’s whether or not Hyde does it. We agree that’s up for debate but the how and the why are obvious.

As I have been saying for 2 months now, Westburg doesn’t have to play every single game. He doesn’t have to be a 155+ game guy right now. Maybe he will become that but as of right now, playing 4-5 times a week is more than acceptable.

It’s easy to get there especially if he plays any COF, which I suspect isn’t in the cards to start off with. 

Hyde is only a part of the committee making lineups and he certainly does not have independent authority in this. 

[AnythingO's]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Hyde is only a part of the committee making lineups and he certainly does not have independent authority in this. 

Yes and no, IMO. Everyone agrees on the Adley, Gunnar level and Hays, Mullins, Santander are the vets. When you get to Vavra, Stowers, Ortiz, I don't think their usage is dictated by ME or the SigBot. I believe they left that to Hyde and we saw Hyde play vets over them. I think ME is sending a message to Hyde with the Westburg hype saying he expects Hyde to play JW regularly. JW is versatile enough to play any IF position and has 6 games in OF this year. I don't know if ME sees JW as a better prospect than Ortiz but Ortiz benefits by playing FT at SS in AAA. He has many hundreds of ABs to get close to JW level of seasoning. That ME is driving this promotion and that Frazier, ME's $8 M man, is likely to lose the most PT is a significant endorsement and out of character for ME.

[tntoriole]

14 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Yes and no, IMO. Everyone agrees on the Adley, Gunnar level and Hays, Mullins, Santander are the vets. When you get to Vavra, Stowers, Ortiz, I don't think their usage is dictated by ME or the SigBot. I believe they left that to Hyde and we saw Hyde play vets over them. I think ME is sending a message to Hyde with the Westburg hype saying he expects Hyde to play JW regularly. JW is versatile enough to play any IF position and has 6 games in OF this year. I don't know if ME sees JW as a better prospect than Ortiz but Ortiz benefits by playing FT at SS in AAA. He has many hundreds of ABs to get close to JW level of seasoning. That ME is driving this promotion and that Frazier, ME's $8 M man, is likely to lose the most PT is a significant endorsement and out of character for ME.

My understanding from some that know is that most fans would be surprised as to how involved Mike, Sig and their staff are in every day’s lineup construction.
 

 And that most successful teams operate that way with the days of Earl tyoe dominion or the Moneyball depiction of managerial dominion being long over. 

 Hyde is certainly part and likely concurs with most decisions. 

 I do not know this with any high degree or personal insider knowledge, just a discussion I heard/read somewhere. 

[AnythingO's]

49 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

My understanding from some that know is that most fans would be surprised as to how involved Mike, Sig and their staff are in every day’s lineup construction.
 And that most successful teams operate that way with the days of Earl tyoe dominion or the Moneyball depiction of managerial dominion being long over.  Hyde is certainly part and likely concurs with most decisions.  I do not know this with any high degree or personal insider knowledge, just a discussion I heard/read somewhere. 

I agree with all of what you say but I believe they give Hyde the option of where and how to play the less obvious choices. I am incapable of believing playing Vavra over Stowers in RF was a ME-SigBot analytical based decision. Likewise for McCann at DH, or O'Hearn in RF or Stowers in LF or Ortiz getting little PT. I believe those decision were made by Hyde and that's why I think ME is sending a strong message about the Westburg promotion. JW will play. Just my strong opinion, worth what you paid for it. lol