Snell/Hader package

[Malike]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I see Elias's strategy for long term success inclusive of the acquisition of difference making starting pitching. He hasn't drafted OR developed ANY. Whether, this year, next, year or any other year, we are going to need that kind of piece to have reasonable odds for postseason success. Otherwise, we will be going into every October with long odds.

I know some fans don't think that starting pitching matters much, but the HOU Astros and ATL Braves would beg to disagree. Oh and the Giants dynasty before them says hello. Don't forget about the long stretches of success of the Dodgers and Rays too. Starting pitching ALWAYS matters in the postseason! 

Oh and I know about that one time when the Royals were able to do it a different way. We could shoot to be the exception to the rule and how that works out. But with an overabundance of positional organizational talent, there is no need to IMO.

Don't let the proof shown in the graphic posted earlier about starters in the playoffs barely pitching 5 innings sway your crusade at all. Having a team full of 7IP starters is clearly the recipe for success in the playoffs, except they've been less than 5 IP for the past few years despite last years 5.1 IP, you know, the 5 and dives that we have.

Edited June 27, 2023 by Malike

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

Don't let the proof shown in the graphic posted earlier about starters in the playoffs barely pitching 5 innings sway your crusade at all. Having a team full of 7IP starters is clearly the recipe for success in the playoffs, except they've been less than 5 IP for the past few years despite last years 5.1 IP, you know, the 5 and dives that we have.

Of the World Series winners of the last 10 years, which besides the Kansas City Royals (you know one team on one year) would you say our rotation is comparable to? Which of those teams did not have very good starting pitching in the post season? ..... I'll wait...lol

[AnythingO's]

As for BP help, is there any update on Givens going for more checkups this week? What about Hall's outlook? Maybe Urias to MIA for Rogers? If we pickup another SP lilke ERod then some SP needs to go to the BP for middle relief. Is Hader still himself now? He wasn't good in 2022 but appears to have rebounded, WHIP is good but K/BB below career norms. Going to be a sellers markey, somebody will overpay, I hope it isn't us.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

As for BP help, is there any update on Givens going for more checkups this week? What about Hall's outlook? Maybe Urias to MIA for Rogers? If we pickup another SP lilke ERod then some SP needs to go to the BP for middle relief. Is Hader still himself now? He wasn't good in 2022 but appears to have rebounded, WHIP is good but K/BB below career norms. Going to be a sellers markey, somebody will overpay, I hope it isn't us.

Rodgers is on the 60-day IL at the moment. If MIA is willing to trade maybe we could include more/better pieces than Urias and get Luzardo? He would fit at the top of our rotation. IMO Rodgers, not so much.

[Malike]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Of the World Series winners of the last 10 years, which besides the Kansas City Royals (you know one team on one year) would you say our rotation is comparable to? Which of those teams did not have very good starting pitching in the post season? ..... I'll wait...lol

I'm not going to do all of your research for you but lets look at the Cubs world series. Jon Lester 5.2 IP 3 ER, Jake Arrieta 5.2 1 ER, Kyle Hendricks 4.1IP 0 ER, John Lackey 5.0IP 2 ER, Jon Lester 6.0IP 2 ER, Jake Arrieta 5.2IP 3 ER, Kyle Hendricks 4.2IP 1 ER. 

Now, if you think those are standout performances and things our pitchers are not capable of, then I don't know what to tell you. I have no doubt the rest of the WS winners would look similar, but again, I'm not spending my day looking up stats when you just make proclamations and are shown they are wrong, stand your ground and refuse to look at any data for yourself. Starting pitching rarely puts the team out of reach, it's the bullpen that gives it away in bunches.

[AnythingO's]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Rodgers is on the 60-day IL at the moment. If MIA is willing to trade maybe we could include more/better pieces than Urias and get Luzardo? He would fit at the top of our rotation. IMO Rodgers, not so much.

I was thinking of Rodgers as BP help in the playoff run like Hall was last year. He could be a SP option next year as well. Help us now and help us later.

[Bemorewins]

28 minutes ago, Malike said:

I'm not going to do all of your research for you but lets look at the Cubs world series. Jon Lester 5.2 IP 3 ER, Jake Arrieta 5.2 1 ER, Kyle Hendricks 4.1IP 0 ER, John Lackey 5.0IP 2 ER, Jon Lester 6.0IP 2 ER, Jake Arrieta 5.2IP 3 ER, Kyle Hendricks 4.2IP 1 ER. 

Now, if you think those are standout performances and things our pitchers are not capable of, then I don't know what to tell you. I have no doubt the rest of the WS winners would look similar, but again, I'm not spending my day looking up stats when you just make proclamations and are shown they are wrong, stand your ground and refuse to look at any data for yourself. Starting pitching rarely puts the team out of reach, it's the bullpen that gives it away in bunches.

Which pitcher on this staff is as good as Jon Lester or Jake Arrieta were? In order to get those kind of performances against the very best teams you have to be pretty good. Our guys can do that some times in the regular season, but I am not confident that they can consistently put together those types of performances in the postseason.

But hey if you are comfortable rolling with what we have and taking your chances, I don't begrudge for having that opinion. I just have a different opinio based on the last 10 World Series winners. Only one of them, did not have very good starting pitchers, the Kansas City Royals of 2015 who were filled with "5 and dive guys" but had an amazingly deep and absolutely elite bullpen. 

I agree that we need a bullpen arm but I also think that we need a really good starter to go along with that. We are absolutely loaded with an overabundance of positional talent in our org. I think we can spare a little from the excess so that we can fix our weaknesses.

[Malike]

10 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Which pitcher on this staff is as good as Jon Lester or Jake Arrieta were? In order to get those kind of performances against the very best teams you have to be pretty good. Our guys can do that some times in the regular season, but I am not confident that they can consistently put together those types of performances in the postseason.

But hey if you are comfortable rolling with what we have and taking your chances, I don't begrudge for having that opinion. I just have a different opinio based on the last 10 World Series winners. Only one of them, did not have very good starting pitchers, the Kansas City Royals of 2015 who were filled with "5 and dive guys" but had an amazingly deep and absolutely elite bullpen. 

I agree that we need a bullpen arm but I also think that we need a really good starter to go along with that. We are absolutely loaded with an overabundance of positional talent in our org. I think we can spare a little from the excess so that we can fix our weaknesses.

*Yawn*

These are the pitching leaders and the value they bring to their teams success. How far behind the contending teams are we, realistically?

[TopGunnar]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Alcantara was such the pitcher you describe, but he has been terrible this year. Those type of guys ("bonafide ace with multiple years left on his contract") rarely come available and I imagine now even less so with the additional wildcards that are designed to keep most teams in it for most of the year. Even with this bad season from Alcantara, I would have to consider it because it would be be buying low, his contract is SO team friendly and we know that he has Cy Young ability when he's right. 

Yea I’d deffintely take him. Don’t see the marlins trading him though. 

[foxfield]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I think you have me confused with someone else, if you believe that I said that we were "overmatched" in the REGULAR SEASON. I NEVER said that we were "lucky". We are wonderfully built to be successful in the regular season because we have such great depth. 

The problem is that in the postseason, they are short series.

The Yankees as an example don't have much depth because they have an older/oft injured, top-heavy/stars and scrubs type of roster. IF they get healthy by the postseason and we have to match up with them for a short 3 game series, it could be a serious problem IMO. They could have Rodon back by then to pair with Garret Cole. Additionally, Wells has been very homer prone this season, if he had to make a start in Yankee Stadium against guys like Judge and Stanton (if he was healthy) that could be a HUGE problem.

Lastly, I am not interested "in making noise". That doesn't appeal to me in the slightest. We have way too much talent within our organization to settle for such a low bar. IMO we should be trying to put ourselves in a position to seriously challenge for a championship. And IMO we need to make improvements to our roster in order to do that.

Do you really believe that as things stand now, we would beat the Rays in a 5 or 7 game series?

Without being too wordy.  Yes of course I do.  WHY?  Because we have a very good team and an outstanding bull pen.  Do I worry that we could use more?  Of course.  Do I think if the season plays out as it is going....that the Orioles would be underdogs?  Maybe, but not really worried about it.

And I agree 100% that I want more than noise.  I want a title. I think the best way to get that is to get as deep as we can this year and get some playoff experience.  We literally have one of the youngest teams in baseball.  I am very excited about the prospects of playoff baseball in 23.  I expect championship quality baseball from 24 until it looks like the window is closed.

I'd like to see improvement and make a real run...but this isn't the year to go "all in" and I'm not sure we will see our GM even call others raises at the deadline.  I won't like it but I will understand if that is the path they choose.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, TopGunnar said:

If this team trades Kjersted or Mayo for anybody other than a bonafide ace with multiple years left on his contract I will be extremely disappointed.

How high up the prospect list do you go? We got Povich and some throw in reliever for Jorge Lopez. I don't think anyone is going to do a controlled ace for much less than someone in the Mayo/Basallo/Ortiz range. Are you suggesting we just roll with our guys when we have a legit shot at a WS?

[EddeeEddee]

4 hours ago, HandsomeQuack said:

Scherzer could be a decent get, but I don't think the team will want to be on the hook for his $43MM player option next season. With his age and relative decline this season I wouldn't put him much ahead of the other guys we have discussed.

Yeah, I doubt the Mets really want to trade Scherzer either.  Even if they're out of it this year I bet they'd like him back next season.  I bet they'd rather trade Verlander, and I bet we could get Verlander from them for very not that much.  The problem is Verlander has a huge contract thru next season and an option for 2025.  And he's got an ERA a bit over 4.

[EddeeEddee]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

At what point do we just put Grayson in the pen instead of buying a reliever?  Then we’d only have to buy a SP. 

That may be the way to go later in the season.  Definitely do not trade him.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

How high up the prospect list do you go? We got Povich and some throw in reliever for Jorge Lopez. I don't think anyone is going to do a controlled ace for much less than someone in the Mayo/Basallo/Ortiz range. Are you suggesting we just roll with our guys when we have a legit shot at a WS?

Povich was outside the twins top 20 And Cano was a nobody a year ago.

[EddeeEddee]

41 minutes ago, Malike said:

*Yawn*

These are the pitching leaders and the value they bring to their teams success. How far behind the contending teams are we, realistically?

 

Yeah but if you filter it on starters only the O's are much further down the list -- 24th overall on Fangraphs by WAR (can't copy and paste it on here for some reason).

I agree with Bemorewins we need a good starter in a trade, but I agree with others that it doesn't have to be a Cy Young candidate.