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Trading for a rental vs a longer term asset

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, wildcard said:

At 43m per year including next year I think you should keep looking for a better match.

Every trade transaction can reset who is paying a player what...you don't have to deploy $43mm of your 2024 payroll on Scherzer if you give the Mets something nice.

The MASN rivalry stuff is half joking, but the Orioles should be looking at everyone.    I don't think the SigBot's programming to "win a World Series" has rules like "ignore Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander", but I guess its possible Adam Frazier $8mm is hardcoded as a maximum, in which case even on Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez we're screwed.

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sportsfan8703
sportsfan8703

Jordan Montgomery makes sense. 1.5 seasons left until FA. The much needed LH SP. 

ThisIsBirdland
ThisIsBirdland

Given who we hear may be available, I'd be disappointed if we move any of Holliday/Cowser/Kjerstad/Westburg/Mayo/GRod. I'd much prefer making a real effort in FA this offseason. 2.5 seasons of Cease (

OsFanSinceThe80s
OsFanSinceThe80s

Plus it would be cool to see Yankees fans seethe over yet another ex-Yankees player tearing it up with the Orioles.

Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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6 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Every trade transaction can reset who is paying a player what...you don't have to deploy $43mm of your 2024 payroll on Scherzer if you give the Mets something nice.

The MASN rivalry stuff is half joking, but the Orioles should be looking at everyone.    I don't think the SigBot's programming to "win a World Series" has rules like "ignore Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander", but I guess its possible Adam Frazier $8mm is hardcoded as a maximum, in which case even on Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez we're screwed.

The Mets are interesting for a couple reasons.  One Scherzer is going to have an opinion and if you are where he wants to be, it's going to lower the cost.  The other interesting thing is how deep in the penalty tax they are.  Every dollar they carve from payroll they get to save 1.80.  I know Cohen is beyond wealthy but that has to be at least a bit intriguing.

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deward Major Leaguer Rising Star

deward

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4 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

Yeah, I wasn't clear enough but they have some throw in value... just not enough to headline any deal.

 

I wouldn't lump Norby in with the other 3.

I don't know if there's that much difference between Stowers and Norby. Norby has been solid at Norfolk, but not outstanding, and he's not known for his glove either. I can't see him headlining any big deals either.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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There’s a part of me that would love to see Scherzer on the mound with the bit in his teeth during the stretch run and the playoffs.   The guy is a bulldog and a natural leader.   

Then there’s a part of me that says, “don’t overpay for yesterday’s great starting pitcher.”   2023 Max Scherzer is not 2019 Max Scherzer.   

Still, you have to wonder whether a guy like that would rise to the occasion.  

As to salary, the Mets would need to eat a big chunk, plain and simple, if they want quality prospects in exchange for Scherzer. 


 

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Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

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Michael Lorenzen as a rental option?  Sub-4 ERA this year.  Not a very good strikeout rate, but doesn't walk many people.

 

Shane Bieber, if the Guardians decide to sell?  He's got 1 more arb year left and he's still dominant.  I'd trade a lot for 1.5 seasons of him.

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AnythingO's Major Leaguer

AnythingO's

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1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Well, the Orioles here as with McCann probably would not need to fund the paychecks in full.    And certainly not if a little more talent was invested in a winning offer, should he go to market.  The Mets are failing in part because Scherzer and Verlander are getting a little moldy. It would just be the opposite of attaching Darren O'Day to Gausman and taking less talent.     Hopefully the 2023 Orioles value talent relative to money a little differently than the 2018 Orioles did!

Regardless of the player's salary, due diligence for Mike Elias is ascertaining as best he can the acquisition cost of any of the world's best pitchers that might move.    You could employ Max Scherzer for 2023-2024 for the league minimum if you invested the trade currency, and then there's the idea Elias perhaps misjudged the offseason marketplace. A byproduct of that misjudgment could be financial flexibility now, and we've all seen this ownership sustain $135mm payrolls over a 5-year period.

I was just making a joke because I didn't think you were serious. Yes, they did average $136+ for 5 years and lost $35M in 3 out of those 5 years. JA has pocketed $150M the last 2 years so there "should" be some workable middle ground though short of $135M. PA had the law firm also making money and attendance was also higher then. JA doesn't have those supports although, attendance is up considerably this year so far. I don't see ME pushing in lots of top talent for a moldy SP and I don't think JA will eat much salary, ever.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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5 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I was just making a joke because I didn't think you were serious. Yes, they did average $136+ for 5 years and lost $35M in 3 out of those 5 years. JA has pocketed $150M the last 2 years so there "should" be some workable middle ground though short of $135M. PA had the law firm also making money and attendance was also higher then. JA doesn't have those supports although, attendance is up considerably this year so far. I don't see ME pushing in lots of top talent for a moldy SP and I don't think JA will eat much salary, ever.

Sure they did.

I totally believe them.

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AnythingO's Major Leaguer

AnythingO's

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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure they did. I totally believe them.

I don't disagree that the team/owners have income streams outside of what is accounted for in the Forbes data, not for one minute. However, the Forbes data does show losses in 3 out of 5 years and had 2 years with payroll of $110 M and $119M when they made about $40M in profit. I think assuming they can support $135M each year is just hope, wish, delusion.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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Just now, AnythingO's said:

I don't disagree that the team/owners have income streams outside of what is accounted for in the Forbes data, not for one minute. However, the Forbes data does show losses in 3 out of 5 years and had 2 years with payroll of $110 M and $119M when they made about $40M in profit. I think assuming they can support $135M each year is just hope, wish, delusion.

I'll agree that they can't support 135M a year over a period of years while simultaneously creating enough profit to satisfy ownership.

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