Let's talk Roster Crunch

[wildcard]

Rosters have to be set for the the Rule 5 draft by November 20th.   We are near mid season so let's see who we think will be on the 40 man roster at that time.   It might tell us who needs to be traded by August 1st. Bold means added to the 40 man roster.

Outfielders

 (9)  Mullins, Hays, Santander, Hicks, Cowser, Kjerstad, McKenna, Vavra, Stowers

Notes:  I think Santander is traded  this off season because next year will be his walk year.  But not before November 20th.    Hicks is on a one year contract but I think the O's extend him because of his performance and  they only have to pay him the minimum.  Vavra is a utility player that has some value as a bench player with options.  Stowers has fallen down the list and might be traded but before Nov 20th or after?

Infielders

(7) Gunnar, Urias, O'Hearn, Westburg, Ortiz, Mateo, Mountcastle

Notes: If O'Hearn keeps hitting I think they keep him.  If Mateo keeps hitting lefties I think they keep him.    Mountcastle probably rebounds in the 2nd half playing at AAA.   He is probably on the roster on November 20th.

Catchers

(2)  Adley, McCann

Starters

(8)  Wells, Bradish, Kremer, Means, GRod, Irvin, Johnson, Rom

Notes:  I am not sure the O's keep Irvin all off season but they probably have him on the roster on Nov 20.  Irvin will be out of options next season so he can't be sent down without going through waivers.  That makes him a trade candidate this off season.

Bullpen

(7) Bautista, Cano, Coulombe, Baker, Baumann, Hall, Vespi

That is 33 keepers.

 

Gone from 40 man roster

(6) Frazier, Gibson, Givens,  Bemboom, Lester, Gillaspie

Notes:  I don't think they pay Gibson 10m if his ERA is over 4.00.   Gillaspie could be DFA'd at any time.   Bemboom and Lester could sign minor league deals to stay in the O's organization.  

 

In Limbo 

(5) Akin, Perez, Zimmermann, Tate,  Voth

Notes:  I don't know how serious Tates injury is.    Same with Voth.  Voth could do what he did last year and rebound to be in the rotation or at least a good reliever.

Players that might be taken in the Rule 5 if not protected

(6)

Haskin - Hitting well when healthy at AAA.  But is there room for him?

Handley -   Has a high OBP.  Someone could take him as a backup catcher

Pinto - Pitching well at AA

Brandon Young - Injured

Brnovich - Injured

Peek - Injured

Notes:  Remember on these injured players.   Elias took Tyler Wells in the Rule 5 draft when he was recovering from TJ surgery

 

Players that can become minor league free agents if not put on the 40 man roster

(3)

Cameron - Hitting well at AAA, Backup CF for Mullins.  Base stealer. 1st round draft choice.  26 years old

Charles -  Currently a favorite of some on the OH.   We need to see more. 26 year old

Darwinzon Hernandez -  Lefty reliever.  Good arm.   Pitching pretty well. 26 years old

There are 14 players in Limbo, needing Rule 5 protection or possible minor league free  agents and only 7 spots open on the 40 man roster.

Edited July 3, 2023 by wildcard

[Baltimorecuse]

I don't know if you're right but you put some thinking into this.

I'd keep Bemboom ahead of McCann

[RVAOsFan]

@wildcard this is a great post, thanks.  This is something to think about as we trade an acquire assets at the deadline this year.  I actually thought we might have more of a crunch to deal with than this, I think we are in decent shape.   I agree Santander gets moved this offseason.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I don't know if you're right but you put some thinking into this.

I'd keep Bemboom ahead of McCann

McCann has 4m on his contract for 2024.  Bemboom can be DFA'd and will not be claimed most likely.   Then Elias will give him a nice contract to play at AAA.

[Baltimorecuse]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

McCann has 4m on his contract for 2024.  Bemboom can be DFA'd and will not be claimed most likely.   Then Elias will give him a nice contract to play at AAA.

Thanks..... 4m for a .200 hitting backup catcher makes me want to barf.  

 

Edited June 28, 2023 by Baltimorecuse
add info

[Fiver6565]

I'd let Cameron guy as one guy who can be removed.  If he didn't replace Mullins when he missed a month just recently, I don't see how he ever will.  If it hadn't been for Hicks, it might have been Cowser had he not been hurt.  Plus I think Haskin plays center.

[wildcard]

On 6/28/2023 at 3:36 PM, Fiver6565 said:

I'd let Cameron guy as one guy who can be removed.  If he didn't replace Mullins when he missed a month just recently, I don't see how he ever will.  If it hadn't been for Hicks, it might have been Cowser had he not been hurt.  Plus I think Haskin plays center.

I agree with this except that Cameron is hitting and playing well at AAA.   I don't think we can count him out in late June.  We need to see what happens with him and McKenna.  Cameron was a 1st round draftee of Elias when he was with Houston.   I don't know how much of a favorite he is for Elias.

Edited July 3, 2023 by wildcard

[Fiver6565]

Just now, wildcard said:

I agree with this accept that Cameron is hitting and playing well at AAA.   I don't think we can count him out in late June.  We need to see what happens with him and McKenna.

Not saying remove him now, talking about in the offseason.  No reason to do anything with him now.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

Not saying remove him now, talking about in the offseason.  No reason to do anything with him now.

I understand.  I just don't know now what Elias thinks of him.

[deward]

If Hicks plays well enough for the O's to want to extend him, then he'll have played well enough to get well over the minimum to start for someone. I don't see them paying significant money to keep him around with Cowser on the way. 

[Moose Milligan]

I would be surprised if Daz Cameron factors into any future plans at all.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I would be surprised if Daz Cameron factors into any future plans at all.

It would be shocking.

[maybenxtyr]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I would be surprised if Daz Cameron factors into any future plans at all.

I'd be surprised if Hicks does as well. 

[Aristotelian]

Too early to do this but I would be surprised if they extend Hicks. They were lucky to catch some lightning in a bottle but I would expect Elias to let his inevitable regression be some other organization's problem. Between Haskin, Cowser, and Kjerstad we should have better options. I would rather they just pay Santander. I also don't see McKenna as all that important to keep. Haskin could be a younger, better version of him. 

I'm not really seeing any must-protect guys on the Rule 5 list. Haskin would be nice as a replacement for McKenna but McKenna still isn't arb eligible.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I would be surprised if Daz Cameron factors into any future plans at all.

I sure hope he doesn't.