July is a meat grinder

[Orioles5258]

Smooth sailing from here on out, the remaining SOS is easiest in the American League East  

[foxfield]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I've done a linear projection of Oriole performance since 2021, and it looks like they'll achieve Platonic perfection and transcend this reality sometime around June of 2025.

 

Reason #162 to not trade top shelf assets for rentals in '23.

[Frobby]

I would like to finish the month strong. Not declaring victory just because a winning month is assured.   We can put ourselves in great position if we have a strong week to finish out July.  

[Baltimorecuse]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I would like to finish the month strong. Not declaring victory just because a winning month is assured.   We can put ourselves in great position if we have a strong week to finish out July.  

What do you think about us being the dog tonight.  How far are we above the Pythagoran expectation.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

What do you think about us being the dog tonight.  How far are we above the Pythagoran expectation.  

Well by the way, Philly is another team outperforming its Pythag.  We are +7, they are +2.   

I don’t pay any attention to gambling odds.  I just hope the O’s find a way to win.  
 

[Baltimorecuse]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well by the way, Philly is another team outperforming its Pythag.  We are +7, they are +2.   

I don’t pay any attention to gambling odds.  I just hope the O’s find a way to win.  
 

Pythag is pretty darn accurate.  It would be fun to know what variable we introduced that screwed it up.  Pythag can't predict seeing eye bloop doubles that win games.  

Thanks for the info.  I don't know where to find it.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Baltimorecuse

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

Pythag is pretty darn accurate.  It would be fun to know what variable we introduced that screwed it up.  Pythag can't predict seeing eye bloop doubles that win games.  

Thanks for the info.  I don't know where to find it.

Look up any team’s season on BB-ref, for example the Orioles.   Towards the top there’s a lightly shaded grey button that says “More team info, park factors, postseason, & more.”   Click that and one of the things it shows is the Pythagorean record.  

[Number5]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I've done a linear projection of Oriole performance since 2021, and it looks like they'll achieve Platonic perfection and transcend this reality sometime around June of 2025.

 

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Orioles5258 said:

Smooth sailing from here on out, the remaining SOS is easiest in the American League East  

Baseball is a funny game and the sailing is rarely ever smooth when you expect it to be. Treat them all like the most important game of the season.

[banks703]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

The O’s are now 14-6 in July, guaranteed to have a winning month with 6 games left to play in the month.  

I'm blown away by their ability to figure out how to win games. I mentioned it in another thread and you mentioned it here, they are mindbogglingly consistent with every one guy in their lineup being essentially above average. Yes, we can argue that certain guys on one side of the ball aren't that strong (Frazier on D, Mateo on O, yadda yadda) but last I looked, the top 11 or so of their guys have positive WAR. Gunnar has become a superstar, Adley is pretty great but they don't have that true Ohtani, Judge, Arenado, Acuna type of established super star right now and it's really balanced their roster. Their flexibility with defensive positions has been one of the true difference makers that doesn't get enough credit in my opinion. 

I'll admit that I did not expect them to turn through July as they have. In fact, coming into this month I was hoping for them to go 10-15 through the Yankee series this weekend. They have far exceeded my expectations and they look like they are legitimately improving. 

I'm blown away and keep pinching myself. 

[Uli2001]

13 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I'm blown away by their ability to figure out how to win games. I mentioned it in another thread and you mentioned it here, they are mindbogglingly consistent with every one guy in their lineup being essentially above average. Yes, we can argue that certain guys on one side of the ball aren't that strong (Frazier on D, Mateo on O, yadda yadda) but last I looked, the top 11 or so of their guys have positive WAR. Gunnar has become a superstar, Adley is pretty great but they don't have that true Ohtani, Judge, Arenado, Acuna type of established super star right now and it's really balanced their roster. Their flexibility with defensive positions has been one of the true difference makers that doesn't get enough credit in my opinion. 

I'll admit that I did not expect them to turn through July as they have. In fact, coming into this month I was hoping for them to go 10-15 through the Yankee series this weekend. They have far exceeded my expectations and they look like they are legitimately improving. 

I'm blown away and keep pinching myself. 

Remember, it's based on "guile and smoke and mirrors".

This team has great chemistry. Every night a different player makes the winning play. It may not have established stars, but it has at least a few future stars. You may look back at this team in a few years and say, wow, they were pretty stacked.

[Uli2001]

By the way, the Orioles are underdogs today again, according to ESPN Analytics.

Orioles record as underdogs: 34-13.

(Phillies record as favorites: 23-41.)

What makes this team good is clearly not captured by "analytics".

[Number5]

4 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

By the way, the Orioles are underdogs today again, according to ESPN Analytics.

Orioles record as underdogs: 34-13.

(Phillies record as favorites: 23-41.)

What makes this team good is clearly not captured by "analytics".

This simply means that gamblers apparently tend to over-bet on the Phillies.  Establishing the Phillies as the favorite in a game doesn't mean the odds-makers think they win, it simply means they think more money will be bet on Philadelphia.

[drjohnnyfever1]

I'm just happy that as we enter this final week of July we've been the grinder and not the meat.

[Uli2001]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I've done a linear projection of Oriole performance since 2021, and it looks like they'll achieve Platonic perfection and transcend this reality sometime around June of 2025.

 

You can see that it's already saturating, but there's still room for growth! They will probably settle around 120 wins/year.