468 IP, 530 K's, 0 Respect?

[Frobby]

So I hear BA ranks David Hernandez 16th on its Orioles prospect list. Seems pretty low for a guy who has a 10.2 K/9 and has led his league in K's the last couple of seasons. His H/9 and ERA were stellar last year, too. I know the guy has some work to do, but 16th? He's only the 10th-best pitching prospect in the organization?

I guess the bright side is the strength of our minor league pitching prospects generally.

[Gurgi]

If he can keep his K/innings Pitched over 9 at AAA I think some respect will be coming.

[mikezpen]

Last year I said he'd be the first starter they'd call up, and I still think that could be so. If he ever gets his control straightened out...

[Mashed Potatoes]

It's weird to pose a question about why a guy would be underrated when you clearly know why he's underrated. 4.53 BB per 9.

He had a 2.68 ERA last year in AA but his FIP was 3.43.

I also know that you're really into starters going deep into games and eating innings these days, Hernandez averaged 5.2 innings per start in AA and has never averaged 6 or more innings per start in the minors. I like him a lot but probably agree with those who say he will end up in the pen.

[slappy12]

So I hear BA ranks David Hernandez 16th on its Orioles prospect list. Seems pretty low for a guy who has a 10.2 K/9 and has led his league in K's the last couple of seasons. His H/9 and ERA were stellar last year, too. I know the guy has some work to do, but 16th? He's only the 10th-best pitching prospect in the organization?

I guess the bright side is the strength of our minor league pitching prospects generally.

It's pretty obvious that BA doesn't like DHernandez for some reason and we can go back to that chat that took place a few months ago when they took a stab at him. But every publication has him as high as 7(BP) amd between 12, so to put him at 16 is really out of line. BA has lost alot of creditablity with me for some time now and I really don't understand the love affair with BA rankings.

[crawdad]

He needs to develop a third pitch and start showing some command and consistency with his fastball and curve. Right now, he looks like a late inning guy. He could develop a change to make him a starter . . . but that is a big break out at his age. It is possible he could do it though. So, that said . . . 16th is a decent ranking if you do not see him as capable for a slot in the rotation. I'd rank him slightly higher because I do think he has a shot starting, albeit slight.

[wickedwitch]

He needs to develop a third pitch and start showing some command and consistency with his fastball and curve. Right now, he looks like a late inning guy. He could develop a change to make him a starter . . . but that is a big break out at his age. It is possible he could do it though. So, that said . . . 16th is a decent ranking if you do not see him as capable for a slot in the rotation. I'd rank him slightly higher because I do think he has a shot starting, albeit slight.

Even as a late innings guy, I'd have him ranked higher, because his floor is pretty high. He could be a solid reliever today with his great K rate.

[GnatsFan]

I always get the impression he is overthrowing (no where near Liz of course) and therefore question his control/command potential. But, still undeniable #'s and I would think he deserves to be ranked higher than what BA ranked him as.

[crawdad]

Even as a late innings guy, I'd have him ranked higher, because his floor is pretty high. He could be a solid reliever today with his great K rate.

I think he could be a very good relief guy. Right now . . . I probably would use the term solid. He has a good chance of being useful right now, but I would not say it is set in stone. He needs a bit more experience. If the O's see him as a starter, he really should repeat AA for at least a month or two. If they see him as a reliever, then right on to Norfolk.

K rate is not the end all. Remember that this is a fairly generic metric that may be hiding information. Hernandez works too far into counts and none of his pitches are plus offerings yet. Though, they do have the capacity to get there.

[Frobby]

He needs to develop a third pitch and start showing some command and consistency with his fastball and curve. Right now, he looks like a late inning guy. He could develop a change to make him a starter . . . but that is a big break out at his age. It is possible he could do it though. So, that said . . . 16th is a decent ranking if you do not see him as capable for a slot in the rotation. I'd rank him slightly higher because I do think he has a shot starting, albeit slight.

BA has Mickolio ranked 10th. If Hernandez is moved to the bullpen, which of the two do you think would be more effective?

[rhall]

It's pretty obvious that BA doesn't like DHernandez for some reason and we can go back to that chat that took place a few months ago when they took a stab at him. But every publication has him as high as 7(BP) amd between 12, so to put him at 16 is really out of line. BA has lost alot of creditablity with me for some time now and I really don't understand the love affair with BA rankings.

BA's rankings reflect each organizations view of their own prospects more than most. They balance their reports by talking to opposing scouts and apply their own opinions, too, but I digress. It's possible that they ranked Hernandez as low as they did due to the Orioles' view of him. If the O's are convinced that he'll be a reliever, then that definitely lowers value.

[Sports Guy]

Great relief prospect, not so good starter prospect.

My guess is he would be 5th if he had a better command and 3 solid pitches.

[Stotle]

BA has Mickolio ranked 10th. If Hernandez is moved to the bullpen, which of the two do you think would be more effective?

Not to speak for Jon, but I think we agree that Mickolio's fastball is the best pitch between the two. The fact that it has plus-sink in the low/mid-90s is pretty incredible -- if he spots that pitch and spots his above-average slider than he is probably more likely to be effective (simply because that would trump what Hernandez can bring).

David's biggest advantage is having a delivery that's easier to tweak and having truer mechanics. The deck is stacked against Mickolio a little due to his size and his mechanics.

So, Hernandez probably has a higher likelihood of achieving consistent ML success, but Mickolio has the higher ceiling as a reliever. Hernandez is the only of the two who can still be an effective ML-starter.

[Baltimoron]

K rate is not the end all. Remember that this is a fairly generic metric that may be hiding information.

What's the story on D.Hernandez's motion and hiding the ball?

I've heard that in a somewhat similar fashion to Sherrill (not physically), he has a deceptive delivery. Basically, the idea is he cocks his wrist/his elbow stays back more and he ends up hiding the ball behind his head/body, which makes him harder to pick up and means more Ks.

Comments?

[Ruzious]

The scouting reports on him are kinda strange, because they say he's got command problems and just okay stuff. It's hard to reconcile that with him leading his leagues in SO's. Hasn't he done it 2 straight years and counting?