My 2023 Midseason Report Card

[Frobby]

With exactly half the season in the books as of yesterday, it’s time for my midseason report card.  As in the past, all grades are on a curve, factoring in my expectations for the player going into the season.   I’ll do the position players in one post, the pitchers in a second one.  For the hitters, I’m using a 50 PA minimum, thus sparing Kyle Stowers, Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg from evaluation.

Adley Rutschman, .268/.375/.417, 11 HR, 35 RBI, 2.0 rWAR, 1.9 fWAR: C+. It seems funny to give a relatively low grade to a player who is one of the most valuable players on the team and a likely all-star reserve, but my expectations for Adley were considerably higher than this.  His defense has been averagish this year, and his offense, while still very good, slumped in June.   I’m hoping for a better second half from Adley.

James McCann, .194/.232/.344, 3 HR, 7 RBI, -0.2 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR: D.  He was supposed to be an upgrade over Robinson Chirinos, but he hasn’t been.   The only reasons I didn’t rate him lower are (1) his wOBA (.250) is much lower than his xwOBA, indicating some bad luck, and (2) he has thrown out 9 of 16 runners who have attempted to steal.

Ryan Mountcastle, .227/.264/.421, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 0.2 rWAR, -0.2 fWAR: D-.   All of Mountcastle’s worst traits (lack of selectivity, low OBP) have gotten worse this year.  He may have played himself out of a starting job, but it’s still possible he will bounce back in the second half.   He’s had some bad luck on batted balls, especially early in the year, but most of his problems are self-made.

Ryan O’Hearn, .289/.333/.509, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 0.4 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR: A-.   O’Hearn has contributed way more than I had any reason to expect when we picked him up this offseason for “cash considerations.”  No matter what he does in the second half, he came along at the right time in the first half, with Mountcastle struggling and then hurt.

Adam Frazier, .226/.298/.387, 9 HR, 35 RBI, 1.0 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: C+.  Frazier has pretty much been exactly what I expected.  He’s had more HR power than I expected, and a bit less range at 2B than I expected, but overall, he’s just about where I thought he’d be. 

Gunnar Henderson, .241/.338/.457, 11 HR, 30 RBI, 1.9 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR: B.  Gunnar came into the year with high expectations, and it took him two months to really get going, both offensively and defensively.  He was in high gear in June, and hopefully can build on that in the second half.

Ramon Urias, .256/.328/.378, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 1.1 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR: B-.  Ramon is about where I expected.   Offensively, he’s not hitting for as much power as he’s shown previously, but he is still solid with the bat.  He’s juggled 2B and 3B competently, though he hasn’t been as outstanding at 3B this year as he was last year, possibly because he’s getting fewer reps there.

Jorge Mateo, .220/.267/.350, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 22 SB, 3 CS, 1.0 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR: C-.   I’m sure some people would give him a lower grade than this, but when grading a half season, you just can’t ignore what Mateo did in April.   His OPS is now lower than it was over a full season last year, and his defense, while still very good, hasn’t been Fielding Bible winner good.

Austin Hays, .313/.353/.493, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 2.1 rWAR, 1.9 fWAR: A-.   Hays has been extremely consistent this year, hitting over .300 with an .800+ OPS in all three months of the season.  He had a slight defensive hiccup in the first 10 games or so of the season, but has played very solid defense since then.   I’m tempted to give him a solid A, but there’s always room for improvement on the plate discipline front for Hays.

Cedric Mullins, .252/.347/.445, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 13 SB, 3 CS, 1.5 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR: B+.  Mullins was red hot before his injury derailed him, and he has been ice cold since his return.  He still had an excellent first half, and I am sure he will get back in rhythm soon.

Anthony Santander, .264/.324/.478, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 1.3 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR: B+.  Santander got off to a terrible start this season, but boy has he made up ground.  He had a very solid first half, leading the team in homers and RBI.   His defense has been spotty but not terrible except when in LF.

Aaron Hicks, .260/.380/.481, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 0.6 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR: A.   Talk about being in the right place at the right time.   Hicks became available just as Mullins went on the IL and the O’s snapped him up.   He pretty much provided Mullins-level value while Cedric was out.   He plays too deep a CF for my taste, but he can still legitimately play the position and is solid in the corners.  And, he gives you a good at bat regardless of the result.

Ryan McKenna, .253/.315/.392, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 0.2 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: C+.   He dropped a fly ball that cost us a game.  He hit a walk-off homer that won us a game.  Otherwise, he’s been an adequate spare OF and defensive replacement.

Terrin Vavra, .245/.315/.245, 0 HR, 5 RBI, -0.4 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR: C-.  For some reason, Vavra hasn’t been able to generate any power as a major leaguer.   I wasn’t expecting a slugger, but this is a guy who put up a respectable .144 ISO at Norfolk the last two years, and he showed a bit of pop in spring training, too.   He’s been a pattycake hitter in the majors.

Overall, I'd give the position players a solid B/B+.   They're 4th in the AL in runs/game, and have been maybe a little disappointing defensively compared to last year.  Overall I am satisfied with what the position players have done as a group.

Edited July 2, 2023 by Frobby

[waroriole]

Hard to argue with much here. I’d probably have Urias a bit lower, because I expected more from him. I’d have him in the C range. Also, not sure what Mountcastle has to do to get an F. Sub .270 OBP is way worse than anything I expected. 

[now]

What grade does Vavra get? (You left it out.)

Thanks for the summary.

Edited July 2, 2023 by now

[wildcard]

I think your expectations are too high on Adley.   That is what you are judging against and Adley deserves a better grade.    I would say at a minimum an A and maybe an A+. 

His peers voted him an All Star.  He now hits lefties and righties  where he had troubles with lefties last year.  The team has improve their record this year and we have to give Adley some credit.   The team is hanging around .600 win percentage.  Did you really expect that?    

His slump in June may be because of overuse as a catcher.   He hits much better as a DH.  Did last year and is this year.    

Where would the team be without Adley?   C+ is not the grade for me.   Well unless your expectations were way too high.

Hays deserves an A+.   Again his peers voted him an All Star.   His numbers are way better than I expected.   You seem to be docking his defense in the cold and wind.   Really?

All this post means is that my expectations of these two players were lower than yours.  If you can really believe that.

Edited July 2, 2023 by wildcard

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, now said:

What grade does Vavra get? (You left it out.)

Thanks for the summary.

Oops!  I’m going to say C-.  My expectations weren’t super high, and he didn’t meet them.  But, it’s not like he got consistent at bats, either.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

What about the pitching staff?

[btdart20]

I’d go a bit higher on McCann just for the defense.

Mounty and Mateo are self-inflicted F’s.  I’m probably being too harsh (especially with Mateo’s defense to account for) but man…

Frazier has been a D for me.  I expected a better OBP and he hasn’t met that expectation.  The extra power helps but not making outs is what makes this offense go.

Gunnar and Adley’s expectations in the second half are higher.

[Frobby]

And now for the pitchers -- 20 innings minimum.

Kyle Gibson, 96.2 IP, 8-5, 4.66 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.7 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR: B-/C+.  Gibson has been exactly what I expected, a slightly better version of 2022 Jordan Lyles.  He’s had a couple of rough starts recently that have knocked his ERA back rather drastically, and given his history of pitching better in the first half of the season, I’m a little nervous about how he’ll do in the second half, but his first half was solid enough.

Tyler Wells, 92.2 IP, 6-4, 3.21 ERA, 0.885 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 2.0 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR: A-.  Wells’ strikeout rate is drastically up this year, and he covered a lot of innings, leading AL starters in WHIP.   The only blemish on him is his high HR rate, but I find nothing to complain about in his first half.  But how many innings can he cover in the second half?

Dean Kremer, 91.0 IP, 8-4, 5.04 ERA, 1.418 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.2 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: C+.  It’s been an up-and-down season from Kremer, and he has skidded a bit lately.  Overall, though, he covered a lot of innings and had many solid starts in the first half.

Kyle Bradish, 78.0 IP, 4-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.205 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.6 rWar, 1.4 fWAR: A-.  Bradish picked up just where he left off last year, and to me he’s still got some upside.  My only knock on him is that he’s covered a few less innings per start than Gibson, Wells and Kremer.

Grayson Rodriguez, 45.1 IP, 2-2, 7.35 ERA, 1.743 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, -1.0 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR: D-.  I won’t give a rookie an F, but the fact that GRod is back in Norfolk after a very full opportunity says a lot.  I had, and still have, very high expectations for him.   He showed flashes of why, but his lack of command just kept getting in the way.  I’m really hoping he’s back and better at some point in the second half.

Cole Irvin, 26.1 IP, 1-3, 7.18 ERA, 1.671 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, -0.5 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: F.  Irvin is not a rookie, so I don’t have any compunction here.  He didn’t get much of an opportunity though, and I hope he can give us a Gibsonesque performance in the second half.

Felix Bautista, 37.2 IP, 3-1, 1.19 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, 18.2 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.8 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR: A-.  His ERA, WHIP and especially K/9 are crazy good.  But there’s still the nagging problem of the 5 blown saves in 26 chances, that knocks him down one peg for me.

Mike Baumann, 41.1 IP, 5-0, 3.92 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 0.6 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: B.  I find Baumann incredibly frustrating.  He can look terrific at times, but you never know what you’re getting from one outing to the next or even inning to inning.  He’s probably done better than I expected, which explains my B grade.   But I wish my expectations for him were higher, because his stuff warrants it.

Yennier Cano, 40.1 IP, 1-0, 1.12 ERA, 0.843 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 2.3 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR: A.  I expected nothing at all from Cano, and he’s been a very good 8^th inning reliever.  Honestly I could have given him an A+, but his numbers over the last month or so haven’t been as dominant as they were earlier.  I’m hoping he’ll remain reliable in the second half.

Bryan Baker, 32.1 IP, 3-2, 4.18 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 0.1 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR: C.  I’m a bit disappointed with Baker.  I expected him to be a reliable 7^th/8^th inning guy this year based on how he did the last two months of 2022.  His command hasn’t been good and I never know what to expect when he comes in.  He’s been similar to Baumann, but I had higher expectations for Baker, hence the lower grade.

Danny Coulombe, 28.2 IP, 2-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.1 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR: A.  I’d never heard of this guy until we picked him up from the Twins at the end of spring training.  He’s been our third-best reliever and has rarely looked bad  even when the results haven’t worked out.

Austin Voth, 31.0 IP, 1-2, 4.94 ERA, 1.581 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, -0.2 rWAR, -0.4 fWAR: D.  He was unreliable in a relief role this year.   I like his stuff but he’s prone to mistake pitches and his command often means there are runners on base when those mistakes happen.

Cionel Perez, 29.1 IP, 1-1, 4.60 ERA, 1.841 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, -0.3 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR: D-.  Perez is hard to fathom.  His stuff doesn’t look much different than last year, but the results are so much worse.  I could have justified an F for him, but since he somehow kept his ERA under 5.00, I spared him.

Keegan Akin, 23.2 IP, 2-2, 6.85 ERA, 1.775 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, -0.8 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR: F.  I wish I could spare Akin too.   I like his style of pitching: work fast, throw strikes, challenge hitters.   But the hitters have won the challenge too often.  So, he gets an F, even though in many ways Perez has been the bigger disappointment.

Overall, the pitching get a C- from me.   I’d expected them to be a little better than last year, and they haven’t been.   The good performances (Wells, Bradish, Bautista, Cano, Coulombe) have been outweighed by the bad ones (Rodgriguez, Irvin, Baker, Voth, Perez, Akin).   And then there’s the lack of contribution from Tate and Givens, who were supposed to be mainstays of the bullpen.

So how does a B/B+ from the position players and a C- from the pitchers equate to an A for the team?   I don’t know, but 48 wins in half of a season is an A performance to me, based on what I expected.

I’d love to hear where people think I’ve been to easy or hard with my grades.

[Sports Guy]

The Adley Grade and write up are so confusing, considering they are coming from someone who has said he isn’t disappointed in Adley’s play.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think your expectations are too high on Adley.   That is what you are judging against and Adley deserves a better grade.    I would say at a minimum an A and maybe an A+. 

His peers voted him an All Star.  He now hits lefties and righties  where he had troubles with lefties last year.  The team has improve their record this year and we have to give Adley some credit.   The team is hanging around .600 win percentage.  Did you really expect that?    

His slump in June may be because of overuse as a catcher.   He hits much better as a DH.  Did last year and is this year.    

Where would the team be without Adley?   C+ is not the grade for me.   Well unless your expectations were way too high.

Hays deserves an A+.   Again his peers voted him an All Star.   His numbers are way better than I expected.   You seem to be docking his defense in the cold and wind.   Really?

All this post means is that my expectations of these two players were lower than yours.  If you can really believe that.

Saying he deserves an A/A+ tells me you don’t think Adley is going to be that good.

[dystopia]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Adley Grade and write up are so confusing, considering they are coming from someone who has said he isn’t disappointed in Adley’s play.

You’re never gonna let that go, are you?

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Adley Grade and write up are so confusing, considering they are coming from someone who has said he isn’t disappointed in Adley’s play.

When we discussed this, I said I was mildly disappointed in Adley’s season so far, considering my high expectations going into the season.  That was on June 12.  He hasn’t done any better since then; in fact, his OPS dropped a little further since then.  Hence, my C+ grade.  He still has time to have a better year.  

Honestly I don’t see how anyone could say Adley is having an A/A+ season if they’re taking preseason expectations into account.  He was worth 5.3 WAR in 3/4 of a season last year, and he’s on pace for about 4 WAR this year.  He’s a deserving all star; that doesn’t mean he’s meeting my expectations, which have never been higher for a young Orioles player.  
 

[TheWall]

Definitely think you could have given Hays an A for this half. His plate discipline will probably always be a bit low, but he's performed as well as we could have ever expected. 

The Adley grade is fair. He's still a deserving All Star and was great in April / May, but he's had a really rough June. Throw in his decline defensively and C+ makes sense based on expectations. There's still a chance he gets hot again in the 2nd half and ends up with a 6+ WAR season. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by TheWall

[Fan4Life]

An overall good job here. I am a disappointed in Adley coming off last year and the first 2 months of this year.

Cano for whatever reason has bene pitching higher in the zone to me than the first couple months. His sinker used to end up below the strike zone, lately (although not as much recently)  it's staying up and a lot more comnact.

 

Batista is another Jose Mesa etal for me. He can be killer great, or awful, all in the same game and even the same at bat. He lost his feel for the sinker a while back and it seems to come and go now. His fastball plays well enough to mow down the typical ML batter. 

 

All of our starters are capable of giving you 5-ish innings of 1 run baseball on any given day, or, a 4 run first inning. 

 

Based on these grades, we should be able to clearly see what our needs are to reach the finsh line. Either via trades or hoping the disappointing players can pick up their game.

[foxfield]

I think everything is pretty fair. I would argue the huge gulf from expectations to results for Cano would warrant an A+ for his first half. Otherwise what could the man ever do to get one?