My 2023 Midseason Report Card

[glenn__davis]

I don't have any major problem dinging Bautista for the blown saves but it's worth noting he has been very unlucky there.

He's given up 3 HRs on the year, all of which led to blown saves.

Obviously 1 was the McKenna game.

1 was an extra inning game which IMO really shouldn't count as a BS for closers.

I believe all 5 of his BS have been in 1 run games.  Honestly the only game that really irked me from a BS standpoint was the Tigers game.  The others are just - you pitch in a lot of 1R games, eventually the other team's going to score a run.

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by glenn__davis

[BRobinsonfan]

Outstanding midseason report, as usual.  I would quibble a bit with Adley.  Has he been what we hoped?  No, but I think he's put up a solid season, so I would grade him a B-.  Hay's gets an A in my book.  He's putting up the kind of numbers we all hoped he would.  

Cano worries me.  Like you, I wasn't expecting much of anything from him, so he's been a terrific surprise.  His April and May numbers were near perfection and obviously unsustainable.  But he's come back to earth in the last part of May and June.  He's been lucky so far he hasn't given up a big inning to blow up his ERA... but 12 hits in 10 innings in June, coupled with 5 walks and only 5 strikeouts has me worried.  I'd probably give him a B+ at this point because of the 1.64 WHIP in June.  

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Outstanding midseason report, as usual.  I would quibble a bit with Adley.  Has he been what we hoped?  No, but I think he's put up a solid season, so I would grade him a B-.  Hay's gets an A in my book.  He's putting up the kind of numbers we all hoped he would.  

Cano worries me.  Like you, I wasn't expecting much of anything from him, so he's been a terrific surprise.  His April and May numbers were near perfection and obviously unsustainable.  But he's come back to earth in the last part of May and June.  He's been lucky so far he hasn't given up a big inning to blow up his ERA... but 12 hits in 10 innings in June, coupled with 5 walks and only 5 strikeouts has me worried.  I'd probably give him a B+ at this point because of the 1.64 WHIP in June.  

For the most part, I try to do my midseason grades based on the overall numbers without regard to the trend line.  His overall WHiP is under 1.00, so I can’t quibble with that.  Do I think he’ll be under 1.00 in the second half?  No, but if not, I’ll pick that up in the second half grade.   

[Three Run Homer]

Personally I would give midseason grades based on an absolute standard rather than relative to my prior expectations, and in that case Adley is clearly no worse than a B+.

I think Bautista is a solid A or even an A+.  The man is striking out 18.6 batters per 9 innings, which if he keeps it up would obliterate the all-time single season record (Aroldis Chapman, 2014 17.67).  His ERA is 1.16.  Most of the time he is untouchable.  I've never seen a better closer in an Orioles' uniform.  

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

Personally I would give midseason grades based on an absolute standard rather than relative to my prior expectations, and in that case Adley is clearly no worse than a B+.

I think Bautista is a solid A or even an A+.  The man is striking out 18.6 batters per 9 innings, which if he keeps it up would obliterate the all-time single season record (Aroldis Chapman, 2014 17.67).  His ERA is 1.16.  Most of the time he is untouchable.  I've never seen a better closer in an Orioles' uniform.  

I will take Zach Britton’s 47-0 saves record regardless of who has the most strikeouts.  The object of the closer is to preserve the lead and win the game.

[Three Run Homer]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

I will take Zach Britton’s 47-0 saves record regardless of who has the most strikeouts.  The object of the closer is to preserve the lead and win the game.

You are correct that Britton in 2016 was the best Orioles closer of all time.  I withdraw that part of my comment.  I still think that Bautista is having an A or A+ season.  

[ArtVanDelay]

9 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

You are correct that Britton in 2016 was the best Orioles closer of all time.  I withdraw that part of my comment.  I still think that Bautista is having an A or A+ season.  

You can’t go wrong either way but I’ll take the guy with the historically great strikeout rate over the ground ball pitcher. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

You can’t go wrong either way but I’ll take the guy with the historically great strikeout rate over the ground ball pitcher. 

I don’t like to sound negative about Bautista, because I’m a big fan of his.   But he’s given up 3 homers; Britton allowed 1 all season.  He’s walked 17 batters; Britton walked 18 all season. He’s given up 9 runs, 5 earned; Britton gave up 7 and 4 all season.  He’s allowed 9 runners to steal a base without a single one getting caught; Britton allowed a single stolen base all season.  And most likely importantly, Bautista has blown five saves; Britton blew none.  You can fetishize strikeouts all you want, but Britton’s 2016 season was vastly better than Bautista’s season this year.  

[ArtVanDelay]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t like to sound negative about Bautista, because I’m a big fan of his.   But he’s given up 3 homers; Britton allowed 1 all season.  He’s walked 17 batters; Britton walked 18 all season. He’s given up 9 runs, 5 earned; Britton gave up 7 and 4 all season.  He’s allowed 9 runners to steal a base without a single one getting caught; Britton allowed a single stolen base all season.  And most likely importantly, Bautista has blown five saves; Britton blew none.  You can fetishize strikeouts all you want, but Britton’s 2016 season was vastly better than Bautista’s season this year.  

Bautista: 1.61 FIP

Britton: 1.94 FIP

But yeah…vastly better.

[dystopia]

Britton's 2016 season was probably the best season for a reliever ever.

[ArtVanDelay]

6 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Bautista: 1.61 FIP

Britton: 1.94 FIP

But yeah…vastly better.

And I have no issue with calling Britton’s season better.  FIP isn’t the end all be all.  But vastly better? Nah. 

[ArtVanDelay]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Britton's 2016 season was probably the best season for a reliever ever.

2003 Eric Gagne.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Bautista: 1.61 FIP

Britton: 1.94 FIP

But yeah…vastly better.

FIP is a totally misused stat.  Who gives a damn about what might have happened in some hypothetical world?  Also, there was no Statcast data then.  FIP doesn’t distinguish a fly ball on the warning track from an infield chopper.   It’s a terrible stat to use for a ground ball pitcher like Britton.  Give me the pitcher who had far better real world results, thanks.  
 

[ArtVanDelay]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

FIP is a totally misused stat.  Who gives a damn about what might have happened in some hypothetical world?  Also, there was no Statcast data then.  FIP doesn’t distinguish a fly ball on the warning track from an infield chopper.   It’s a terrible stat to use for a ground ball pitcher like Britton.  Give me the pitcher who had far better real world results, thanks.  
 

You mentioned walks and home runs being in Britton’s favor which is 2/3 of FIP.  And then you denigrated strikeouts which is the thing that gives Bautista an edge.  It’s not like he’s merely striking out batters at a solid rate.  He’s been the greatest strikeout pitcher of all time so far this year.  
 

As amazing as Britton’s 2016 was, there was an element of luck that more ground balls didn’t find holes.  There’s no such luck involved in blowing 103 by hitters. 
 

Like I’ve said multiple times, I have no issue with anyone calling Britton’s season better but I’ll take Bautista.  If we have a 1 run lead in Game 7 of the World Series, I want the guy who strikes out 2 batters per inning.  I’m not taking a chance on a few ground balls finding holes. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

FIP is a totally misused stat.  Who gives a damn about what might have happened in some hypothetical world?  Also, there was no Statcast data then.  FIP doesn’t distinguish a fly ball on the warning track from an infield chopper.   It’s a terrible stat to use for a ground ball pitcher like Britton.  Give me the pitcher who had far better real world results, thanks.  
 

I’m going to amend what I said, because Statcast data does exist for 2016, and Bautista’s xERA of 1.93 is fairly close to Britton’s 1.70.   But it doesn’t change my mind, because I care more about actual results than “expected” results when analyzing a season.  Expected stats, FIP and xFIP are useful in projecting future results, but the current actual results are what they are, and Britton was much better in 2016 than Bautista has been in a half season.   

Another couple of things.  All the “expected” stats don’t take sequencing into account, nor do they factor in holding base runners, which is hugely important for a closer.