Kjerstad and Ortiz

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Just Regular said:

Last offseason Joc Pederson got a QO from a rich team.

Rizzo, Conforto and Abreu were a little below the QO AAV but got 2-3 years.

I don't know if he's there yet, but I can see it in the range of outcomes.    I'm sure Elias would like another one of those good problems to have.

In a year where everyone is seemingly acting like we can’t replace him, his WAR is barely over 1 and his OPS has been under 800 for a lot of the year.

There is a lot to like about Tony Taters. I’m glad we have him but we have too much coming up and too many budget constraints to even consider spending 20M on him..even if he is worth that much, which I don’t disagree that he could be.(at least if you buy the value of wins in terms of WAR)

[NCRaven]

I don't think we'll ever find out if the Orioles will give him the QO.  While I don't think we'll trade him before the deadline, I definitely think he'll be gone over the winter.  Speaking of the trade deadline, am I the only one that misses the two trade deadlines, non-waiver and revocable waiver?  Always thought it was fun to see who got claimed and pulled back or to see if someone was able to make the more difficult trade.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, NCRaven said:

I don't think we'll ever find out if the Orioles will give him the QO.  While I don't think we'll trade him before the deadline, I definitely think he'll be gone over the winter.  Speaking of the trade deadline, am I the only one that misses the two trade deadlines, non-waiver and revocable waiver?  Always thought it was fun to see who got claimed and pulled back or to see if someone was able to make the more difficult trade.

Yea I agree. I know this year is different but the trades of Mancini and especially Lopez last year make me think Hays or Santander could go at the deadline but I agree it’s far more likely to happen in the offseason.

[Gentile4]

Two things keep coming back to me.

1. We have a lot of infielders who have hit well in the minor leagues. None, other than Gunnar, have shown they can hit in the majors. Time will tell, but it's not a given.

2. Didn't Mateo win a Gold Glove last season, or the equivalent?

[NCRaven]

2 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

Two things keep coming back to me.

1. We have a lot of infielders who have hit well in the minor leagues. None, other than Gunnar, have shown they can hit in the majors. Time will tell, but it's not a given.

2. Didn't Mateo win a Gold Glove last season, or the equivalent?

1. Westburg is the only other young infielder that has been given significant playing time and he seems to be adjusting well (SSS aside).

2. Defense is the only thing he's contributing at this point.  The bat is awful.

Overall, I would rather have Ortiz, even if that's the only thing we get for Mateo, i.e., we let him go for nothing other than an opportunity for Ortiz to get playing time.

[Just Regular]

For sure the idea of paying Santander his final Arb, QO or FA money is more about ownership than it would be for many other clubs.

Even final Arb is like a 35% discount on market value.

The Rising Tide is overtaking the McKenna-Mateo tier player, maybe Mountcastle too, but I don't think we'll have 9 better position players than Santander for 2024.     B-Ref today has him at 2.2 WAR/650 for 2019-2023, and he has flashed growth in Orioles PD happy ways that Mountcastle has not.

Mayo's 3B defense (or lack thereof) will have some impact on what Bats can fit the lineup.   It is bad news for Santander as a '24 Oriole if Mayo has to have 1B/DH/RF.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

Two things keep coming back to me.

1. We have a lot of infielders who have hit well in the minor leagues. None, other than Gunnar, have shown they can hit in the majors. Time will tell, but it's not a given.

2. Didn't Mateo win a Gold Glove last season, or the equivalent?

Mateo won the Fielding Bible GG which really doesn’t mean anything but they do a better job of things overall.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

For sure the idea of paying Santander his final Arb, QO or FA money is more about ownership than it would be for many other clubs.

Even final Arb is like a 35% discount on market value.

The Rising Tide is overtaking the McKenna-Mateo tier player, maybe Mountcastle too, but I don't think we'll have 9 better position players than Santander for 2024.     B-Ref today has him at 2.2 WAR/650 for 2019-2023, and he has flashed growth in Orioles PD happy ways that Mountcastle has not.

Mayo's 3B defense (or lack thereof) will have some impact on what Bats can fit the lineup.   It is bad news for Santander as a '24 Oriole if Mayo has to have 1B/DH/RF.

I don’t know…with the way guys are performing, I’m not betting against the idea that next year we see several 1.5-3 WAR guys making little to no money playing in the spots AS can occupy.

The other issue is that he may fit more into a DH only type situation as the years go on and that hurts the versatility of the team.

I just can’t come up with a scenario where it’s worth keeping him unless we see major injuries or very unexpected trades.

[Gentile4]

Does Mateo have options? He's still relatively young, and perhaps a decent offensive stretch at Norfolk could bring a useful middle reliever. 

[Hank Scorpio]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Mateo won the Fielding Bible GG which really doesn’t mean anything but they do a better job of things overall.

Should've traded him in April. 

I assume most teams knew better.

Edited July 6, 2023 by Hank Scorpio

[Hank Scorpio]

13 minutes ago, Gentile4 said:

Does Mateo have options? He's still relatively young, and perhaps a decent offensive stretch at Norfolk could bring a useful middle reliever. 

He does not, or he'd be wearing green today.

[Sydnor]

2 hours ago, 2001OriolesFan said:

Not that often.  Teams usually have a pretty balanced prospect list among the position players and pitchers.  The O's have mostly concentrated on SS and CF players (the best athletes) and ignored pitching.  Drafted pitchers have a high attrituion as they go thu their pro development.  We don't have that much in the pipeline although we did draft a dozen in 2022.   So we are in an unusual situation with a lot of good position players and not much pitching.  That doesn't happen too often, so position player trades for pitching prospects doesn't happen that often either.

If we think a little out of the box, something may work out with some teams who have multiple high (top 100 in MLB) pitching prospects. (mirror image). Some candidate teams would be:

In the top 100 in MLB prospects, there are 8 pitchers with ETA’s later than 2023 and let’s ignore them for now. (#26, #38, #54, #64, #68, #78, #79, #80, & #84. ) The “2023” guys are:

 

#7 Perez Marlins

#12 Painter Philly

#17 Harrison Giants

#18 Bradley Tampa

#19 Williams Indians

#21 Miller Dodgers

#26 Tiederann Jays

#33 Pfaadt ‘Zona

#34 Bibee Indians

#38 Abel Philly

#46 Stone Dodgers

#51 White Texas

#54 Meyer Marlins

#57 Pepiot Dodgers

#61 B.Miller Seattle

#62 Espino Indians

#64 Hence Cards

#67 Priester Pirates

#68 Horton Cubs

#78 Cavalli Nats

#79 Leiter Texas

#82 Hall ORIOLES

#84 Lesko Padres

#92 Libertore Cards

#97 M.Miller Athletics

#99 Abbat Reds

 

The best chance of a trade here, should be with teams that have multiple top 100 pitching candidates. They are the most likely to be able to trade one of them for something they need now. These are:

 

Indians #19, #34, #62

Dodgers #21 #46, #57

Marlins #7 #54,

Philly #12 #38

Texas #51 #79

Cardnals #64, #92

 

 

 

 

Bibee and Williams are in the Guardians rotation. Espino had surgery and is out for the year. I’m sure there is a price for which they would trade one of Bibee or Williams, but it’s not Kyle Stowers and Cesar Prieto. It’s probably Cowser or Kjerstad plus.

[crawjo]

To me, Ortiz seems like a trade candidate. Given the depth we have at shortstop in the majors right now, plus Holliday in the minors, dealing Ortiz as part of a package for some pitching depth would make a lot of sense. 

[24fps]

4 hours ago, Roy Firestone said:

I still wonder if a lot of Mountcastle's issues had lately to do with the emergence of vertigo...im not saying ALL of his issues...but if that can be fixed,,,Ryan could be a valuable hitter against left-handers..

I think it's useful to periodically remind people that Mountcastle's OPS was 50 points higher against RHP than LHP in 2022.  We all recognize that something is wrong with him right now, but it's premature to assume it's permanent and his future is the weak half of a platoon.  Right we don't even know what's causing the vertigo.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Sydnor said:

Bibee and Williams are in the Guardians rotation. Espino had surgery and is out for the year. I’m sure there is a price for which they would trade one of Bibee or Williams, but it’s not Kyle Stowers and Cesar Prieto. It’s probably Cowser or Kjerstad plus.

Given Elias and Company's demonstrated bias against prospect pitchers, Cowser and Kjerstad would undoubtedly be a non-starter especially if the trade was even close to even-up  That being said, I wouldn't mind having either of those pitchers to go along with Rodriguez.