Kjerstad and Ortiz

[Bemorewins]

If contender to contender trades are really out there to make the way some people like Bowden have suggested then it may be something to consider with Hays or Santander. While that would be a hard choice, I may lean slightly more toward trading Hays because this might be the peak of his value/performance? Santander appears to be the same/similar guy as he was last year. Both of them have been arguably our best hitters. 

But depending on the return in order to make the roster more complete, I believe that the O’s would be wise to consider it.

Besides, it appears that a decision on Hays/Santander is inevitable with Kjerstad being so close. I can’t see the O’s keeping both Hays and Santander next year and keeping Kjerstad down. I believe next year he will be age 25, which might be one of his prime seasons.

It’s a hard choice to make no doubt. 

[MurphDogg]

I don't think they will trade Hays or Santander until the offseason. You don't see teams that are trying to make the playoffs trade contributing big leaguers at the trade deadline, even if they are trading from depth. I think Kjerstad will be up in September and will be on the playoff roster, because teams don't carry 5 starters or 13 pitchers on the playoff roster. 

It looks tougher for Ortiz to break onto the roster barring injury, given the presence of Mateo on the roster. I think Mateo and possibly Urias will be traded / DFA'd in the offseason and Frazier won't be back, so Ortiz will have the inside track on a starting infield spot or super utility role next season, potentially competing with Norby and Vavra with Gunnar and Westburg penciled in at two of 2B/SS/3B.

Nice problem to have, all things considered.

[Moose Milligan]

I agree with @MurphDoggthat they don't trade Hays or Santander (hopefully both) until the offseason.  So I think Kjerstad, despite killing it in AAA, is going to have to wait a little bit.

But Ortiz for Mateo is the move that could be made today.  And should be.

[Frobby]

Elias certainly has his work cut out for him at the trade deadline and in the offseason, but what an enviable position to be in.   I guess this is where we find out if he’s only a pretty good GM, or a great one. 

I really hate the idea of DFAing Mateo, but I agree that I’d rather find out how good Ortiz can be than give more at bats to Mateo.   

I sort of like Frazier, but acquiring him was a mistake that has worsened a logjam that already existed in the infield.  I’d love to trade him at the deadline if we can eke out some value.  

As to Kjerstad, I think he spends most of the summer in Norfolk, but maybe he gets a spot when rosters expand.  



 

[wildcard]

There is not a word here about Stowers.   He is ready to return to AAA as early as tonight.  He is a 25 year old 2nd round pick.   He has a 864 OPS in 595 PA at AAA.  If he comes back hitting well he is can headline a trade for a starter.

Elias can add to a package with any of  Urias, Nordy, Hicks(849 OPS for the O's), Frazier, Mateo, Haskin or Prieto.

Add a starter and GRod to the rotation with Means coming back in August.   Push Irvin and a starter to the pen to give it length.   There is the improved middle relief.

[sportsfan8703]

Now that everyone is up and it’s the half way mark… are Ortiz and Kjerstad such difference makers that we should start subtracting players off of a top 5 team in all of MLB?  
 

The trades that would be there for the vets, will still be there in the offseason. What do we gain by trashing them now?  
 

There isn’t clear PT for Ortiz, and actually Mateo is in his ideal role now. Mateo is a now a Terrance Gore type late game weapon, who unlike Gore, is also an elite defender. So there is no need to call up Ortiz to be the 4th/5th IF in a rotation situation. Ortiz should be the OD SS next year. 
 

Now all of this could change if we could swap a vet IF for an arm. 

[deward]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Now that everyone is up and it’s the half way mark… are Ortiz and Kjerstad such difference makers that we should start subtracting players off of a top 5 team in all of MLB?  
 

The trades that would be there for the vets, will still be there in the offseason. What do we gain by trashing them now?  
 

There isn’t clear PT for Ortiz, and actually Mateo is in his ideal role now. Mateo is a now a Terrance Gore type late game weapon, who unlike Gore, is also an elite defender. So there is no need to call up Ortiz to be the 4th/5th IF in a rotation situation. Ortiz should be the OD SS next year. 
 

Now all of this could change if we could swap a vet IF for an arm. 

If Hays or Santander could help you net a strong starting rotation option for this year's stretch run, with Kjerstad filling in behind them, then that's a move they should make. I doubt that option is really out there though. If one of them could be traded for an upper level arm that's ready, or nearly ready, to go, then you'd have to think about it, but I'm not sure that's a slam dunk. I would point out that Santander has an .809 OPS as of today, and the chances that Kjerstad could out-perform that from day one are greater than 0%.

In a similar vein, the chances that Ortiz could out-perform Urias' .715 OPS are also greater than 0%, and if he could, then that's probably worth more than the luxury of having Mateo on the bench.

[foxfield]

6 minutes ago, deward said:

If Hays or Santander could help you net a strong starting rotation option for this year's stretch run, with Kjerstad filling in behind them, then that's a move they should make. I doubt that option is really out there though. If one of them could be traded for an upper level arm that's ready, or nearly ready, to go, then you'd have to think about it, but I'm not sure that's a slam dunk. I would point out that Santander has an .809 OPS as of today, and the chances that Kjerstad could out-perform that from day one are greater than 0%.

In a similar vein, the chances that Ortiz could out-perform Urias' .715 OPS are also greater than 0%, and if he could, then that's probably worth more than the luxury of having Mateo on the bench.

The Orioles will not make moves where the answer to the question: What percentage chance can we get that production from one of the kids?  It's greater than 0%.

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, deward said:

If Hays or Santander could help you net a strong starting rotation option for this year's stretch run, with Kjerstad filling in behind them, then that's a move they should make. I doubt that option is really out there though. If one of them could be traded for an upper level arm that's ready, or nearly ready, to go, then you'd have to think about it, but I'm not sure that's a slam dunk. I would point out that Santander has an .809 OPS as of today, and the chances that Kjerstad could out-perform that from day one are greater than 0%.

In a similar vein, the chances that Ortiz could out-perform Urias' .715 OPS are also greater than 0%, and if he could, then that's probably worth more than the luxury of having Mateo on the bench.

Hays and Santander likely wouldn’t net us the SP we need right now. Contenders don’t usually sell SP in season. Why would a team that is out of it want Hays or Santander?

If Elias wants to he could totally reshape this team in this offseason and trade away Hays, Santander, Urias, and Mateo, this offseason for the best prospect packages. Then tap into to buy pitching. 

Right now, we’re good with the vets we have. Ortiz should be our OD SS next year. Or at worst, in a IF rotation with Gunnar, Westburg, and Urias. 
 

We need to figure out what we have in Grayson, then figure out IP limits for everyone other than Gibson. We may have to buy a SP to go to a 6 man rotation. We also need another big time BP arm. Givens isn’t that guy. Our BP is a big recipe for our winning. 

[baltfan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Honestly, I would be shocked if Santander were an Oriole in 2024.

To me he is the most likely to stay unless he just has more trade value.  He is the most fearsome of our hitters and generally stays healthy.  He also can play OF and 1B. 

[clapdiddy]

30 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is not a word here about Stowers.   He is ready to return to AAA as early as tonight.  He is a 25 year old 2nd round pick.   He has a 864 OPS in 595 PA at AAA.  If he comes back hitting well he is can headline a trade for a starter.

Elias can add to a package with any of  Urias, Nordy, Hicks(849 OPS for the O's), Frazier, Mateo, Haskin or Prieto.

Add a starter and GRod to the rotation with Means coming back in August.   Push Irvin and a starter to the pen to give it length.   There is the improved middle relief.

Stowers is definitely a guy I could see being moved for a reliever.    With him, Prieto, and Norby, there should be a matchup somewhere for bullpen help.

[IPlayGM]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Santander is definitely being trade imo, albeit probably not until the offseason. His salary and service time alone make that chance very high.

Hays is a bit trickier. You can keep him And rotate the COF spots and DH. That can make some sense. To me, Hays comes down to value. Where is he more valuable? What value does have in a trade?

Agree with your timeline. Santander this off-season, and then Hays only if the value is right. But I do wonder if you work out a contender/contender trade deadline trade with let’s say the Marlins for Taters and get a pitcher back.

[RVAOsFan]

33 minutes ago, wildcard said:

There is not a word here about Stowers.   He is ready to return to AAA as early as tonight.  He is a 25 year old 2nd round pick.   He has a 864 OPS in 595 PA at AAA.  If he comes back hitting well he is can headline a trade for a starter.

Elias can add to a package with any of  Urias, Nordy, Hicks(849 OPS for the O's), Frazier, Mateo, Haskin or Prieto.

Add a starter and GRod to the rotation with Means coming back in August.   Push Irvin and a starter to the pen to give it length.   There is the improved middle relief.

Stowers is trade bait, sure he might have a fine career somewhere but he has been surpassed by superior talent in this organization.  If he is still in the organization in August I will be surprised. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, baltfan said:

To me he is the most likely to stay unless he just has more trade value.  He is the most fearsome of our hitters and generally stays healthy.  He also can play OF and 1B. 

Well, he has stayed healthy the last year and a half. Durability was a clear issue for him before that.

He is going to be making 10+M next year and I just don’t see the Os wanting to pay him that when they have so many hitters that are in the position he is but make no money. 
 

He’s a good piece to have but he just isn’t as valuable to us as he would be to so many because of the plethora of guys we have to take his spot(s).

Plus he is a FA after 2024 and he’s not someone you offer a QO to, so trading him between now and the start of 2024 makes the most sense.

[sportsfan8703]

The Angelos family should give Elias a blank check. He could have a WS contender next year with a team full of only players in the arb process. Mostly pre-arb. 
 

Lowest payroll in baseball?

2024 OD

1. Mullins L CF

2. Adley S C

3. Gunnar L 3B

4. Mayo R 1B

5. Cowser L RF

6. Westburg R 2B

7. O’Hearn L DH

8. Kjerstad L LF

9. Ortiz R SS

McCann, Urias, McKenna, Norby(All RH bench to face LHP)

Bradish, Wells, Grayson, Kremer, Irvin/Povich

Bautista, Cano, Columbe, Baker, Baumann, Charles, Zimmerman

Edited July 6, 2023 by sportsfan8703