Our Best "Touchable" Trade Bait is.........

[Orioles Jim]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I think all of these guys are close…you can actually say the same thing about DL Hall, who is very close to many of them.

That said, I do think it comes into play. 

Just based off observations from Birdland Caravan, I can say you’re right. DL Hall was bear hugging Adley/G-Rod/Vavra in a way that you could definitely he considers them brothers.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you want to upgrade the pitching you will have to give up one, or more, players that other teams covet.

All of this oh no, not that one...that's going to get you a bullpen version of Cole Irvin.

Give up quality to get quality.

I agree wholeheartedly. The problem on this board is that some people want to trade nothing and get something in return. But as we know that is not typically how things work in the real world of MLB.

[deward]

27 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't understand the logic of keeping Holliday down for 2 more years, just so Ortiz can play. It makes more sense to me, to try to get your best core of players to play together as long as possible, thus increasing you odds of winning championship(s).

Attempting to hold a space open for Ortiz seems forced and unnecessary. Gunnar seems more than capable of manning SS and giving us elite offense at that position. 

Who was arguing for anything like that? I haven't seen that. All I've seen are people who want to see Ortiz start until Holliday is ready. No one is asking to artificially hold Holliday back for the sake of Joey Ortiz, just that Ortiz be allowed to take advantage of the remaining time until Holliday is up, whenever that may be. I would say the debate is more whether or not Urias should lose playing time in order for Ortiz to get a shot.

[oriole]

31 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't understand the logic of keeping Holliday down for 2 more years, just so Ortiz can play. It makes more sense to me, to try to get your best core of players to play together as long as possible, thus increasing you odds of winning championship(s).

Attempting to hold a space open for Ortiz seems forced and unnecessary. Gunnar seems more than capable of manning SS and giving us elite offense at that position. 

I don’t know why anyone is getting hung up on my mention of 2 more years in the minors for Holliday. That’s not the point whatsoever, maybe he’ll be here to start 2025, I don’t know. Right now I don’t care. I’m saying I’d like to see what Ortiz can now and in the near future and I wouldn’t want to trade him. I won’t be terribly upset if they do, but I think the depth is there to trade from the “bottom” which just happens to still be very good players.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Let’s assume that our rotation after the ASB will be Wells, Bradish, Kremer, Gibson, Rodriguez. Who is coming out of the rotation for a Giolito or Montgomery? Is Giolito or Montgomery an upgrade enough to justify a trade?  
 

Our best touchable trade bait is probably Urias, Mateo, Norby, Stowers, Vavra, and McKenna. 

Between Gibson and Grayson whoever is not performing. I like you want Grayson to succeed. But from what we saw from his stint here, I don't think it is fair to say that particular proposition is a given. He had one of the highest SLUG % against in the sport. He got crushed on MULTIPLE occasions. If the command is not seriously improved, I don't think that it is reasonable to expect that the results will change all that much.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Fiver6565 said:

I wonder how much the professed brotherhood/friendship of Cowser/Westburg/Henderson would play into the likelihood of Westburg being traded?  I think there would be a relatively significant psychological blow if they break that troika up right after reuniting them.  I think its highly unlikely, whether for this reason or just because they like Westburg more than whatever they could get for him.

I know we are in an age of cold hard stats driving decisions, but there is a human element also....

Manny has found a way to carry out without his BFF Schoop all these years. It's professional baseball and it's a business. They all know that.

[CaptainRedbeard]

We certainly have a number of players who are better off as trade bait, but arguably there's no need to move any of them now and we'd be better off waiting until the offseason.  Breaking them into groups:

1) "Untouchable" prospects (i.e. would only be available for an elite player with multiple years of control, which won't happen):

• Holliday
• Mayo
• Cowser
• Kjerstad
• Rodriguez

2) Available prospects, but unlikely to be dealt because there is a clear path to a future role here:

• Hall - Coulombe is only under control one more year, and the rest of the LH RP in the system are either (i) having horrible seasons and currently hurt (Perez and Akin) or (ii) have well below MLB velo and don't profile as back-end RP (Vespi, Zimmermann, Rom). It would also be selling very low to deal Hall now.
• Fabian - The only true CF prospect who profiles as a potential starter, and should be ready around the time that Mullins is hitting free agency.
• Povich - The Orioles picked him as the centerpiece to the Lopez deal, he's a lefty that profiles well for OPACY, and IMO he's the only pitching prospect (beyond Grayson) that has decent odds of developing into a SP. 

3) Available prospects that should be dealt at some point:

• Westburg OR Ortiz - Because of Holliday, the Orioles are going to have to eventually decide between one of them.  However, they could postpone that decision until Holliday is ready to debut, and we should be giving Ortiz a proper MLB opportunity in the meantime to better evaluate him.  Whichever of Westburg/Ortiz is not traded would go into group #1 above.
• Norby & Prieto - Lesser prospects to Westburg/Ortiz, with defensive limitations and no future here as a starter.  We're probably better served dealing them to an organization that can give them a shot as potential 2B starters than making them bench players here, since they do have that upside. However, Norby has had a rough season and would be selling low, and Prieto will really raise his stock if he puts together some more AAA ABs at his current level of performance. Both could easily have greater value in the offseason.
• Basallo & Willems - Basallo is a GREAT prospect and my preference is to wait to sell on him for at least 1-2 years until we give him more time in our system to really develop his bat.  But either he is going to stick at C, in which case we'll be wasting his value here with Adley, or he's not and we would be better served dealing him before that becomes apparent.  It's all about the optimal time to deal him, and I think it's a bit premature now.  Willems is a much lesser prospect, but same story as Basallo.
• Stowers - Not technically a prospect anymore, but still 6 years of control and there's no future for him here now with Cowser and Kjerstad passing him by. However, it's definitely a sell low to deal him before he gets back healthy and putting up his typical strong AAA numbers.

4) All other prospects are available, but less valuable than those above and there's no apparent need to ultimately move any of them.

5) Available veterans:

• Santander, Hays & Mountcastle - Kjerstad is going to warrant MLB at bats before the first of this group, Santander, hits FA.
• Kremer & Irvin - We have 6 SP under contract for next year in Rodriguez, Means, Bradish, Wells, Kremer and Irvin.  However, because that group is lacking a true front of the rotation type (as we are well aware), it makes sense to acquire an improvement upon Kremer/Irvin, who IMO aren't more than durable IP-eating back-end types. It's probably worth keeping one of them for depth next year, and we could still hang onto both, but we don't need both. Irvin's got very little value right now, so it could be Kremer.

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, deward said:

Who was arguing for anything like that? I haven't seen that. All I've seen are people who want to see Ortiz start until Holliday is ready. No one is asking to artificially hold Holliday back for the sake of Joey Ortiz, just that Ortiz be allowed to take advantage of the remaining time until Holliday is up, whenever that may be. I would say the debate is more whether or not Urias should lose playing time in order for Ortiz to get a shot.

This is a direct quote from the poster @oriole "Personally I really love the idea of a Henderson/Ortiz/Westburg infield for the next couple years til Holliday replaces Ortiz."

I read the words "for the next couple of years" and deduced a couple means two. How did you read that?

[sportsfan8703]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Between Gibson and Grayson whoever is not performing. I like you want Grayson to succeed. But from what we saw from his stint here, I don't think it is fair to say that particular proposition is a given. He had one of the highest SLUG % against in the sport. He got crushed on MULTIPLE occasions. If the command is not seriously improved, I don't think that it is reasonable to expect that the results will change all that much.

Grayson will be given a shot before we make any moves. He did exactly what we asked him to do in AAA. Was the international League Pitcher of the Month. Now it’s time for him to get results up here. He will be in the rotation out of the ASB. 
 

The bullpen will also get a good rest with the ASB. Maybe not Cano and Bautista though. 

My #1 trade target right now would be a dominant rental RP to pair with Cano before Bautista. Jordan Hicks fits. I think we could get him for Chayce McDermott. 

[Fiver6565]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Manny has found a way to carry out without his BFF Schoop all these years. It's professional baseball and it's a business. They all know that.

Manny also played with this 'BFF Schoop' for what, five years?  Not a couple weeks and then traded.  Apples and oranges.  No one thinks these guys are going to play their entire careers together.

This board tends to disregard the human element of player management generally speaking - when talking about demotions, benchings, or trading.  Its a factor, it just is.

[Bemorewins]

11 minutes ago, oriole said:

I don’t know why anyone is getting hung up on my mention of 2 more years in the minors for Holliday. That’s not the point whatsoever, maybe he’ll be here to start 2025, I don’t know. Right now I don’t care. I’m saying I’d like to see what Ortiz can now and in the near future and I wouldn’t want to trade him. I won’t be terribly upset if they do, but I think the depth is there to trade from the “bottom” which just happens to still be very good players.

It sounds like you really believe in Ortiz. I don't begrudge you for that.

I guess a counterpoint to playing Ortiz at SS temporarily for a year/year and a half/two years is that it may not be the best usage of the roster and resources that we currently have.

1) Gunnar appears to be fine at SS. Maybe even a little better than he has looked at 3B?

2) Jackson Holliday is the superior player/prospects so it's inevitable/a matter of time that Ortiz will be displaced by the better player.

3) Because of our tremendous organizational depth/talent at the INF positions, it may make sense to trade from the lesser talented players in order to acquire other pieces that the ball club already doesn't have?

[deward]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

This is a direct quote from the poster @oriole "Personally I really love the idea of a Henderson/Ortiz/Westburg infield for the next couple years til Holliday replaces Ortiz."

I read the words "for the next couple of years" and deduced a couple means two. How did you read that?

I read it as an assumption that Holliday might not be ready until OD 2025, and that Ortiz should get to play until then, not that Ortiz should be allowed to stand in  Holliday's way if he's clearly ready before that timeline. I think it's reasonable to assume that a best case scenario for Holliday is that he gets the Gunnar treatment next year and is called up in August, late enough to preserve his rookie eligibility for 2025. 

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Grayson will be given a shot before we make any moves. He did exactly what we asked him to do in AAA. Was the international League Pitcher of the Month. Now it’s time for him to get results up here. He will be in the rotation out of the ASB. 
 

The bullpen will also get a good rest with the ASB. Maybe not Cano and Bautista though. 

My #1 trade target right now would be a dominant rental RP to pair with Cano before Bautista. Jordan Hicks fits. I think we could get him for Chayce McDermott. 

I don't think that you are wrong on Grayson being given a shot again. I was pointing out that it is not a given that he will succeed this season (given how bad that he was the first go round).

Where I disagree with you totally, is about the bullpen piece. I don't think that we are a Jordan Hicks away from being better than Tampa, TEX, or ATL. Or should I say being able to have a great chance of beating any of them in the postseason because Jordan Hicks is an O. 

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, deward said:

I read it as an assumption that Holliday might not be ready until OD 2025, and that Ortiz should get to play until then, not that Ortiz should be allowed to stand in  Holliday's way if he's clearly ready before that timeline. I think it's reasonable to assume that a best case scenario for Holliday is that he gets the Gunnar treatment next year and is called up in August, late enough to preserve his rookie eligibility for 2025. 

Gotcha. Sounds like you read a lot of context into the statement that I did not. I just took it at face value.

I have no idea what will happen in the future with Holliday or anyone else (including myself). For all I know, what you say might be spot on. It's possible that things play out differently though. I just hope that the O's can find a way to get their most talented roster together on the same team for as long as possible.

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, deward said:

I read it as an assumption that Holliday might not be ready until OD 2025, and that Ortiz should get to play until then, not that Ortiz should be allowed to stand in  Holliday's way if he's clearly ready before that timeline. I think it's reasonable to assume that a best case scenario for Holliday is that he gets the Gunnar treatment next year and is called up in August, late enough to preserve his rookie eligibility for 2025. 

Holliday will be up mid June of next year at the latest. It’s going to be hard to hold him back. Even Aberdeen can only hold him to a .900 OPS. There’s still a half season left this year.