What does a trade for a TOR arm look like?

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, Fan4Life said:

Is Stowers on a rehab assignment at Aberdeen?

Yup. 

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, zweem said:

OK- please don't shoot.

Mounty for our buddy Lopez now,

After the break- Stowers, Hays and , if necessary to clinch the deal, Urias for Ober.

Both deals agreed to now.

The Twins are in first place. I’m curious to hear from you how it makes sense for them to trade a young, controllable, starter having a brilliant season like Ober?

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Keller a lot. It’s going to cost a lot to get him. Wells, Bradish, Kremer, Grayson, and Means, are all through next season. Who are you taking out of the rotation for Keller?  Is it worth it to have to trade Mayo, Bassalo, Povich, and Showalter for Keller?

Giolito would be a nice add. Could we get him for Norby and Showalter?  

Realistically speaking, Keller is probably better than them all. He gets consistent length and has a very good strikeout rate.

I wouldn’t want to remove Wells and Braddish, and I think we will/should give Grayson a shot in the rotation, so I guess you can pick from the other 2.

[Bemorewins]

54 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

In the category Granddaddy of them All, the Angels are 2-8 last 10 entering tonight's 1st Half finale for them at Dodger Stadium.

The controllable for any GM is to know who is available, and what the acquisition cost would be.

Financially, there is only ~ $10mm owed the last 2 months of the present contract, not the $500mm coming for 2024-2033 which is of course unsuitable for the market that we're in.     But I have seen us pay $10mm for a length pitcher, and $8mm for a bat, even as tight as money is these days.

So far the Angels actions have only been to bolster their 2023 roster, but those actions have also been mostly ineffective to date.

If you are speaking of Ohtani, they have stated time and time again that they are not trading him.

[tntoriole]

They break

 

https://www.stltoday.com/sports/professional/mlb/cardinals/cardinals-jordan-montgomery-hoping-for-good-news-after-injury-forces-early-exit-in-chicago/article_bddfc468-1cdd-11ee-a7dd-e3b54bc5f338.html

[zweem]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

The Twins are in first place. I’m curious to hear from you how it makes sense for them to trade a young, controllable, starter having a brilliant season like Ober?

With the Oriole additions, their offensive lineup would be markedly better and they are pitching rich. They should ,then, be able to run away in their division.--Hayes ain"t  hay ya know and Hays, Stowers, Mounty and Urias would probably all be full time starters- well maybe not Mounty----

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Giolito for Povich + McDermott

Giolito for Povich + Norby

Giolito for Povich + Showalter

It hurts, but it won’t break our system. This is also probably our formula going forward. Grab a rental SP each year, if need be, and that way ownership doesn’t have to spend $20+ million a year. Everyone wins.  

The O's need to hang onto every pitching prospect they can.  Povich might be the O's best starting pitching prospect now that Grayson has lost his prospect status.  The O's have literally too many positional prospects to play at AAA and the majors next year.  A trade of positional prospect this year is almost a necessity.

i would try to do something like Norby + Wagner/Prieto.  Throw in a 3rd piece if needed.  Maybe replace Norby w/ Creed Williams as another option.

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like Keller a lot. It’s going to cost a lot to get him. Wells, Bradish, Kremer, Grayson, and Means, are all through next season. Who are you taking out of the rotation for Keller?  Is it worth it to have to trade Mayo, Bassalo, Povich, and Showalter for Keller?

Giolito would be a nice add. Could we get him for Norby and Showalter?  

Keller would be at the top of the rotation along with Bradish.  Not a believer in Wells as a long term above average starter, but I hope he keeps it up.  Too much starting pitching is rarely a problem.  The O's looked to have it this spring, but Voth lost whatever he had last year and Grayson/Hall couldn't get out major leaguers and suddenly the O's had barely enough starters. 

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, zweem said:

OK- please don't shoot.

Mounty for our buddy Lopez now,

After the break- Stowers, Hays and , if necessary to clinch the deal, Urias for Ober.

Both deals agreed to now.

Please stop with the Mountcastle trades.  No one is giving up anything for Mountcastle.  I'm not sure that Mountcastle is a top 3 1B for the O's when you count prospects.

[foxfield]

5 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Please stop with the Mountcastle trades.  No one is giving up anything for Mountcastle.  I'm not sure that Mountcastle is a top 3 1B for the O's when you count prospects.

Well to be blunt.  Even if you accept Mountcastle is the Orioles 4th best 1b...and I don't, that has zero impact on Mountcastles value in a trade.

If you accept the Orioles are one of the best teams in baseball, you need to properly understand the talent in the system not just value players because of their place on a depth chart.

Consider the pay, consider the performance...both past and future expectations, consider the years of control.

Mounty aint bringing back Cease, but no one is saying that.  DFA him and he will have new team tomorrow.  That is the definition of value.  The question is can we spend that value for anything that is of similar value to us?

And I am not saying we will...

These are great problems to have by the way.

[Sanity Check]

19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 Right now, I’m not sure you need to trade for a long term option.

Dont get me wrong, if the right guy is there im good with it but right now, he’s not there. We have plenty to trade now and keep our best prospects and we can trade for someone in the offseason or sign one of the many FAs And not trade our best prospects.

We need to alleviate some depth before it loses value but we don’t have to trade our best guys for a minor upgrade over other pitchers for less than half a season.

The only thing that concerns me about your first sentence is that I don't see Elias paying any TOR guy the money they will command in the free agent market, so trading for a longer term, high upside guy might make more sense for us.  I don't want another offseason like last year when it seemed that the dollars were off the charts, or pitchers chose more attractive (maybe to them) destinations.  I still don't believe anyone will give Baltimore a discount my signing here.

Would you agree that if we don't trade for that kind of pitcher, we likely won't sign one either, or do you have more faith in us spending money?  (As a side note, in the Astros blueprint, they didn't sign TOR guys to big contracts).

[OriolesMagic83]

4 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Well to be blunt.  Even if you accept Mountcastle is the Orioles 4th best 1b...and I don't, that has zero impact on Mountcastles value in a trade.

If you accept the Orioles are one of the best teams in baseball, you need to properly understand the talent in the system not just value players because of their place on a depth chart.

Consider the pay, consider the performance...both past and future expectations, consider the years of control.

Mounty aint bringing back Cease, but no one is saying that.  DFA him and he will have new team tomorrow.  That is the definition of value.  The question is can we spend that value for anything that is of similar value to us?

And I am not saying we will...

These are great problems to have by the way.

Mountcastle might have some value, but he's a platoon 1B.  How many teams can carry a platoon 1B w/ a sub .300 OBP.  How I would rate the O's 1B options:

1.  O'Hearn

2.  Santander (obviously as a part timer)

3.  Kjerstad (might be the best even now)

4.  Mountcastle

This is not even counting guys like Westburg who could probably play an above average 1B. 

[Sanity Check]

16 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Great analysis. The problem we are running into with the plan to trade for a TOR isn’t necessarily the price, it’s that there aren’t any available. There’s no guarantee there will be any available in the offseason either. However, there is a pretty strong FA SP class. Trade for a rental SP for a playoff run this year and then go for a FA. Bonus is that you have a few months with a guy like Giolito or Montgomery to see if you want to tinker with their stuff before deciding whether to pursue them as a FA. 

Elias didn't get into the deep end of the free agent starting pitcher pool last offseason with the insane numbers that pitchers were getting.  Do you see that changing this offseason?  I'm expecting more sticker shock, and acquiring pitchers some other way, such as the Lyles/Gibson types, and that's not going to make a lot of us happy.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Elias didn't get into the deep end of the free agent starting pitcher pool last offseason with the insane numbers that pitchers were getting.  Do you see that changing this offseason?  I'm expecting more sticker shock, and acquiring pitchers some other way, such as the Lyles/Gibson types, and that's not going to make a lot of us happy.

The market price is the market price.

If he was actually shocked than they made a mistake somewhere down the line.

[Sanity Check]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The market price is the market price.

If he was actually shocked than they made a mistake somewhere down the line.

I'm not going to go back and search for it, but I believe Elias pretty much said that the dollars being given out were not within what the Orioles were looking to pay, and I also believe he said something along the lines of the market being much higher than he had anticipated.

I must be stupid too, because I didn't see Verlander, Rodon and DeGrom (among others) getting the contracts they got.

Since you appear to enjoy trolling me, just go ahead and agree that I'm stupid too and we can move on.