Specific Trade Ideas

[24fps]

Snell has pitched more than 129.1 innings once in his 8-year ML career (7 if you discount 2020) and that was 2018.  He is at 103 for this season.  That brings up the immortal words of Dirty Harry: "So the question you have to ask yourself is do I feel lucky?"  Well do you?

 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well yea because we don’t have many options for that role.

Snell has been pitching at a high level for a solid calendar year. 
 

I hope the Os sign him in the offseason, assuming he doesn’t get more than 3 years, which I doubt he will.

I’m absolutely fine with adding Snell as I think that he is a good pitcher. But if I had to trust one of Snell or Bradish with the season on the line, right now I’m giving the edge to Bradish. But either would be a decent choice.

Just to be clear, are you saying that you would rather wait until the offseason and sign him as opposed to trading for him?

If so, how does that work for next year? What happens to Means? We would then have Snell, Wells, Bradish, Grayson, Means, and Kremer. One too many no?

[CaptainRedbeard]

One consideration that fans won’t have visibility into when considering value of rental SP - are we planning on spending on a FA SP this offseason? The depth we have everywhere on the roster means that is one of the few avenues to improve the team, so they should, but we don’t know what the budget looks like or Angelos/Elias’ level of aversion to big FA SP contracts. It’s definitely projected to be a strong FA SP market.

If we are planning on spending on a FA SP, then there is obviously less value in targeting SP with control beyond this season. However, that also means there is some incremental value in trading for a rental that you anticipate to be one of your top FA targets.

You get a few months to try out whatever improvements you think you can make with them, and you have a period of negotiating exclusivity.  The negotiating exclusivity isn’t super valuable since most guys are going to be set on hitting the market, but if the Orioles are willing to pay the top of the market, early-FA price for a SP they really like, then having the experience with them on the team and the time to hammer out a deal does improve your chances of landing them and potentially from keeping them from hitting FA altogether.

IMO, Snell, Montgomery, Giolito and E Rodriguez are the best FA SP targets and the only available rental SP that will have any meaningful impact on their playoff rotation, so I’d like to see the Orioles pursue their favorite of that group for the stretch run and get a leg up on landing them as a FA. If not, they have the fallback value of the QO comp pick and can pursue that whole group as FA. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m absolutely fine with adding Snell as I think that he is a good pitcher. But if I had to trust one of Snell or Bradish with the season on the line, right now I’m giving the edge to Bradish. But either would be a decent choice.

Just to be clear, are you saying that you would rather wait until the offseason and sign him as opposed to trading for him?

If so, how does that work for next year? What happens to Means? We would then have Snell, Wells, Bradish, Grayson, Means, and Kremer. One too many no?

I would like both..trade for him and sign him.

Kremer is out.

We also need to see how Wells ends the year. He’s clearly one of our best starters and he should have a job next year in that role but he has had a lot of durability and reliability issues. Assuming he makes it through the season healthy, he’s in the rotation but he does need to show that.

Snell brings swing and miss, K rate, etc..Bradish doesn’t have enough of that. That’s huge in the playoffs.

Snell isn’t perfect. The Bb rate is an issue but overall, he’s a great fit for the Os, has experience in the playoffs and in our division and gives us a reliable lefty starter the rest of this year, which is something the team does not have right now.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

One consideration that fans won’t have visibility into when considering value of rental SP - are we planning on spending on a FA SP this offseason? The depth we have everywhere on the roster means that is one of the few avenues to improve the team, so they should, but we don’t know what the budget looks like or Angelos/Elias’ level of aversion to big FA SP contracts. It’s definitely projected to be a strong FA SP market.

If we are planning on spending on a FA SP, then there is obviously less value in targeting SP with control beyond this season. However, that also means there is some incremental value in trading for a rental that you anticipate to be one of your top FA targets.

You get a few months to try out whatever improvements you think you can make with them, and you have a period of negotiating exclusivity.  The negotiating exclusivity isn’t super valuable since most guys are going to be set on hitting the market, but if the Orioles are willing to pay the top of the market, early-FA price for a SP they really like, then having the experience with them on the team and the time to hammer out a deal does improve your chances of landing them and potentially from keeping them from hitting FA altogether.

IMO, Snell, Montgomery, Giolito and E Rodriguez are the best FA SP targets and the only available rental SP that will have any meaningful impact on their playoff rotation, so I’d like to see the Orioles pursue their favorite of that group for the stretch run and get a leg up on landing them as a FA. If not, they have the fallback value of the QO comp pick and can pursue that whole group as FA. 

Can’t give a QO to a rental you acquired during the season.

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Can’t give a QO to a rental you acquired during the season.

Ah right, thanks, forgot about that. The QO comp pick is still the baseline value you need to exceed in your offer, otherwise you see a team just hold onto a guy and tag them like the Cubs did with Contreras last year. The Padres are certainly going to be more inclined to do that with their guys. 

I do think all of those rental SP could be had for prospects in the tier below the Basallo/Ortiz level of our farm, as I think they are both 50 FV and there are a bunch of guys in the 45+/45 FV range below them. The comp pick is on the 40+/40 FV border.

Some complicating factors: The Padres may hold Snell or demand a 50 FV. The Dodgers may be willing to part with a 50 FV for Giolito given their rumored interest and the perpetual strength of their farm. The Cardinals may only want SP prospects in return and we are quite weak with 45 FV options there, and arguably we have just as high a need for those ourselves. That leaves perhaps only Ed Rod as a target where we can deal from the strength and depth of our 45+/45/40+ FV hitters. 

[24fps]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Ah right, thanks, forgot about that. The QO comp pick is still the baseline value you need to exceed in your offer, otherwise you see a team just hold onto a guy and tag them like the Cubs did with Contreras last year. The Padres are certainly going to be more inclined to do that with their guys. 

I do think all of those rental SP could be had for prospects in the tier below the Basallo/Ortiz level of our farm, as I think they are both 50 FV and there are a bunch of guys in the 45+/45 FV range below them. The comp pick is on the 40+/40 FV border.

Some complicating factors: The Padres may hold Snell or demand a 50 FV. The Dodgers may be willing to part with a 50 FV for Giolito given their rumored interest and the perpetual strength of their farm. The Cardinals may only want SP prospects in return and we are quite weak with 45 FV options there, and arguably we have just as high a need for those ourselves. That leaves perhaps only Ed Rod as a target where we can deal from the strength and depth of our 45+/45/40+ FV hitters. 

EdRod is not a rental pitcher.  After this season, he will still have $49 mill on his contract and won't be a FA until 2027.

[Teddy OBP]

Just now, 24fps said:

EdRod is not a rental pitcher.  After this season, he will still have $49 mill on his contract and won't be a FA until 2027.

He’s got an opt out IIRC

[Just Regular]

I do psychobabble like Blake Snell as ever since Emotional IQ Master Dan Duquette insulted Roger Clemens, and Rocket went to Toronto all charged up to make him look bad, I enjoy trying to guess what makes great players tick, and you want an irked All-Star on your team.

Clemens a whole other level, but Snell is above the threshold as a pitcher of proven excellence.

The Rays pocket protector geeks denied Blake Snell the pinnacle (so far) of his baseball life with that famous quick hook.

 

[ScGO's]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

The only thing I have some questions in terms of the addition is Barlow. Why him and not say a Robertson? Barlow appears to be only a very slight upgrade to Baker/Baumann in terms of how he has pitched this year. Maybe you have more insight/intel than me seeing how I rarely watch Royals games unless they are playing a team we are competing with an the O’s aren’t playing.

High K rates, very very durable the last 5 seasons. FIP shows he's very consistent. He also offers a different look as he's one of those guys that releases the ball a lot closer to the plate than the average pitcher.

Our depth for LHP is good but its not very strong at the top, so that's why I want Hader. Our RHP is better at the top than the lefties but its not very deep. I think Barlow compliments Cano, Bautista, and Baker well as RH options; he also has one more year of control which is nice to sure up the pen going into 2024, especially if we can't resign Hader.

Grayson would be the long man in the bullpen going 2-4 Innings two to three times a week. He's also depth for SP as he can step right in if needed.  He's going to be a starter, but his stuff would play really well in a playoff bullpen right now.

Irvin can stay at AAA for depth, and we'll see if Means can add anything by Sept.  If we put Snell in as a TOR, say all you want about his 5 inning starts, we're going to have a deep enough bullpen to dominate.

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

10 minutes ago, 24fps said:

EdRod is not a rental pitcher.  After this season, he will still have $49 mill on his contract and won't be a FA until 2027.

 

9 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

He’s got an opt out IIRC

That’s right, he has an opt out, which is all downside for the acquiring team. At this point he would only not opt out if he got seriously injured or had a horrendous second half. His trade value will be that of a rental that is slightly depressed by the risk that he ends up not opting out. 

[Ridgway22]

10 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I do psychobabble like Blake Snell as ever since Emotional IQ Master Dan Duquette insulted Roger Clemens, and Rocket went to Toronto all charged up to make him look bad, I enjoy trying to guess what makes great players tick, and you want an irked All-Star on your team.

Clemens a whole other level, but Snell is above the threshold as a pitcher of proven excellence.

The Rays pocket protector geeks denied Blake Snell the pinnacle (so far) of his baseball life with that famous quick hook.

 

That's one way to put it.

[Bemorewins]

48 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

One consideration that fans won’t have visibility into when considering value of rental SP - are we planning on spending on a FA SP this offseason? The depth we have everywhere on the roster means that is one of the few avenues to improve the team, so they should, but we don’t know what the budget looks like or Angelos/Elias’ level of aversion to big FA SP contracts. It’s definitely projected to be a strong FA SP market.

If we are planning on spending on a FA SP, then there is obviously less value in targeting SP with control beyond this season. However, that also means there is some incremental value in trading for a rental that you anticipate to be one of your top FA targets.

You get a few months to try out whatever improvements you think you can make with them, and you have a period of negotiating exclusivity.  The negotiating exclusivity isn’t super valuable since most guys are going to be set on hitting the market, but if the Orioles are willing to pay the top of the market, early-FA price for a SP they really like, then having the experience with them on the team and the time to hammer out a deal does improve your chances of landing them and potentially from keeping them from hitting FA altogether.

IMO, Snell, Montgomery, Giolito and E Rodriguez are the best FA SP targets and the only available rental SP that will have any meaningful impact on their playoff rotation, so I’d like to see the Orioles pursue their favorite of that group for the stretch run and get a leg up on landing them as a FA. If not, they have the fallback value of the QO comp pick and can pursue that whole group as FA. 

Do you not consider Stroman in the group of pitchers that you listed? He’s having an excellent season has has two great starts against the Rays (when they were rolling) and has a player option at the end of the year. 

[btdart20]

50 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

One consideration that fans won’t have visibility into when considering value of rental SP - are we planning on spending on a FA SP this offseason? The depth we have everywhere on the roster means that is one of the few avenues to improve the team, so they should, but we don’t know what the budget looks like or Angelos/Elias’ level of aversion to big FA SP contracts. It’s definitely projected to be a strong FA SP market.

If we are planning on spending on a FA SP, then there is obviously less value in targeting SP with control beyond this season. However, that also means there is some incremental value in trading for a rental that you anticipate to be one of your top FA targets.

My guess is that we add Gibson ($10m), Frazier ($8m) and Voth ($1.850m) to get a general idea of the FA SP budget ($19-20m).  

[bpilktree67]

Norby/Prieto  for whoever offers you the best relief pitcher you can get seems like a great option to me.