Specific Trade Ideas

[Roll Tide]

16 minutes ago, TopGunnar said:

I thought Burned was controlled for more than 1/2 year. In that case, I agree I wouldn’t trade anybody of value for a rental.

My mistake …but it’s 1 1/2 years of a guy that has a 4 ERA. It’s not a guy that I’d trade 4 or 5 players for. If they’d take Hall, Stowers, and a throw in fine. But, the guy isn’t pitching like a number 1. 

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Last year you had another season of control. If he costs more than the #15 ish player in the best system I’d probably just pass.

No he didn't,  he was a FA after the season and signed with the Mets this year.

[Aristotelian]

48 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

My mistake …but it’s 1 1/2 years of a guy that has a 4 ERA. It’s not a guy that I’d trade 4 or 5 players for. If they’d take Hall, Stowers, and a throw in fine. But, the guy isn’t pitching like a number 1. 

It's not just the ERA, his K/9 is down, BB/9 up, H/9 and HR/9 slightly up. I haven't watched him or followed him closely but he is not the same pitcher he was in 2020-22. I would need to be very confident that it's a deadarm or temporary issue. 

[24fps]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Would you make this deal?

 

Yes as long as it's Ortiz, not Westburg.

[24fps]

7 hours ago, Alasdaire said:

Then don't do it. Acquiring Gioloto isn't going to push this team over the edge and win the WS. No player is going to do that. This is a good/fun team, but they're still in the process of coming into their own.

If it was just about money, then sure, go ahead and overpay. But not with non-fungible prospects.

If Elias doesn't take steps to address the clear organizational weaknesses in regard to pitching, then the team isn't ever going to "come into their own".  And it won't be a passive process, especially now when the team is actually competitive and has been consistently for over a half-season.  I wouldn't want to be the person to tell them at this point that they're not ready, so actions will now speak louder than words, Mike Elias.

[deward]

10 hours ago, pdiddy said:

For comparison’s sake the Astros gave up their 3,9,11 for Verlander.

Verlander was a HoF pitcher, still pitching at the top of his game, with two years of control remaining. There is no one on the market that is remotely comparable. And the Astro's #3 was like #46 on the top 100 IIRC, and their 9 and 10 weren't on it at all. 

[deward]

9 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

At the time of the trade, Verlander was thought of as a former ace towards the end of his career.  He was thought as more of a solid #2.  I remember there being a major opinion that Houston got the worse end of the deal being stuck w/ most of his huge salary.  I think Detroit had to pick up $8 mill/yr. 

Verlander had finished 2nd in the AL CY voting in 2016 and ended up finishing 5th in 2017. His ERA with the Tigers in 2017 was slightly higher than his norm, but all the underlying numbers were fine. The concerns I recall are that he was an expensive pitcher in his mid 30s, which is always a risky bet.

[deward]

9 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Corbin Burnes has basically put up Justin Verlander stats for the last 3 years coming into this year.  He’s having a little bit of a down year this year. 

I think that's understating it. The decline in K rate is a serious concern, he isn't just getting a little unlucky.

[deward]

10 hours ago, pdiddy said:

Is 2023 Burnes > 2017 Verlander?

Milwaukee owes us somehow after how crappy K Rod was for us and then magically returned to All Star status when he returned to the Brewers the next year. 

He is not. 

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

Yes as long as it's Ortiz, not Westburg.

Swap Ortiz in there instead of Westburg, and then Sweeten it up a bit more.  I'd do that.

[FlipTheBird]

2 hours ago, deward said:

Verlander was a HoF pitcher, still pitching at the top of his game, with two years of control remaining. There is no one on the market that is remotely comparable. And the Astro's #3 was like #46 on the top 100 IIRC, and their 9 and 10 weren't on it at all. 

Verlander was in his mid-30s, his ratios were slowly starting to tick the wrong way, and he was owed a ton of guaranteed money that the Tigers were worried was about to become a problem. So his price was dampened a bit. Nobody at that time expected him to have the incredible career revival he experienced in Houston - where he rattled off legitimately the best seasons of his entire career.

[Baltimorecuse]

Pitchers are like thoroughbreds.  You put a big wager on one and they breakdown in the back stretch.  

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, 24fps said:

Yes as long as it's Ortiz, not Westburg.

It’s still a lot for a marginal upgrade 

[sportsfan8703]

My targets would be…

Lucas Giolito

David Robertson/Scott Barlow

Players that have no role on this team now, and in the future. Vavra, McKenna, Lewyn Diaz, Daz Cameron, Josh Lester, and Keegan Akin. 

Blocked prospects

Norby, Stowers, Prieto, Wagner, Charles, Hernandez

[deward]

5 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Verlander was in his mid-30s, his ratios were slowly starting to tick the wrong way, and he was owed a ton of guaranteed money that the Tigers were worried was about to become a problem. So his price was dampened a bit. Nobody at that time expected him to have the incredible career revival he experienced in Houston - where he rattled off legitimately the best seasons of his entire career.

He had just finished 2nd in the CY Young voting the year before. He'd already been worth 5.1 WAR in 2017 before he was traded. His numbers in Detroit in 2017 were fine, well within his career norms, other than a slightly inflated ERA. Detroit was definitely concerned about having big money committed to a pitcher in his mid-30s, which isn't unfair, but Houston correctly assessed that he wasn't showing any real signs of erosion, and stole him without giving up anyone of value by assuming the financial risk. I wish the O's could do something similar, but I fear that, even if that player were out there, Angelos wouldn't want to take on the contract.