Orioles acquire LHP Rich Hill from Cubs

[RedDevil00]

I think you nailed it.

Ohhh. Look at me go, figuring this stuff out all on my own.

[Sports Guy]

I start with the assumption that Baez won't make a successful bid to be a starter. However, I don't rule that out 100%, only about 95%.

So you have Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson clearly ahead of him. Albers is ahead of him if (1) he is healthy and (2) he's not a starter.

Beyond that, I think it's something of a crapshoot. I don't assume they'll just keep Penn, Pauley and Hill on the roster because they are out of options. I think they'll have to pitch well to make the team (and if any of them do, it may be as a starter). I don't assume Sarfate is guaranteed a spot. I think it's somewhat likely that if Liz doesn't make the team as a starter he will end up back at Norfolk, since he has an option left.

I just think we will have to wait and see who is healthy and pitching well, and go from there. No point in guessing on Feb. 2.

Well, I am going to say 99.9% chance Baez doesn't make the rotation.

Now, a few things will make a difference:

1) Health of albers

2) Where does Hendrickson end up

3) Out of option guys..Hennessey, Pauley, Hill and Penn

4) Liz

Personally, I see Liz in AAA, Albers on the DL and all 4 of the other options making the team.

Now, if Hennessey has an option left, maybe he goes to AAA and Baez has an outside chance.

Sarfate is in a fight as well IMO.

[Anonymous]

Well, I am going to say 99.9% chance Baez doesn't make the rotation.

Now, a few things will make a difference:

1) Health of albers

2) Where does Hendrickson end up

3) Out of option guys..Hennessey, Pauley, Hill and Penn

4) Liz

Personally, I see Liz in AAA, Albers on the DL and all 4 of the other options making the team.

Now, if Hennessey has an option left, maybe he goes to AAA and Baez has an outside chance.

Sarfate is in a fight as well IMO.

doesn't need one (signed to a minor league deal)

[clapdiddy]

Well, I am going to say 99.9% chance Baez doesn't make the rotation.

Now, a few things will make a difference:

1) Health of albers

2) Where does Hendrickson end up

3) Out of option guys..Hennessey, Pauley, Hill and Penn

4) Liz

Personally, I see Liz in AAA, Albers on the DL and all 4 of the other options making the team.

Now, if Hennessey has an option left, maybe he goes to AAA and Baez has an outside chance.

Sarfate is in a fight as well IMO.

Honestly, even though I don't think we're talking about the highest quality of pitching, I think it is really nice to have these depth "problems".

The thing I like is that we're not even talking about Patton, Hernandez, Berken, Bergesen, and the Big 3 yet!

[NCRaven]

I thought that Hennessey had a real shot - before they traded for Hill and Pauley and got into the Looper sweepstakes. Since he's signed to a minor league contract, I expect them to stash him at Norfolk, along with Liz, Albers, and Waters until someone on the staff gets injured or stinks. If Looper is signed and guys pitch like they're capable of, I would expect things to shake out something like:

SPs: Guthrie, Uehara, Looper, Hill, Penn/Pauley

RPs: Sherrill, Johnson, Walker, Ray, Sarfate, Baez, and Hendrickson

But, there are some wildcards that could come into play. Health of Ray and Baez. Effectiveness of Hill, Baez and Walker. Any desire by management to protect an out of options guy like Bass/Pauley/Penn.

The downside of this - our AAA rotation could be Liz, Albers, Waters, Hennessey, and Burres which pushes all of our best pitching down to Bowie - Patton, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken, not to mention Spoone when he's healthy and someone like Zach Clark. If they don't waive a few of the fringe, AAAA type pitchers that could end up at Norfolk, you get a real bottleneck in Bowie and Frederick. Not a problem if they're more willing to promote some guys mid-season than they have been in the past.

[DrungoHazewood]

The downside of this - our AAA rotation could be Liz, Albers, Waters, Hennessey, and Burres which pushes all of our best pitching down to Bowie - Patton, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken, not to mention Spoone when he's healthy and someone like Zach Clark. If they don't waive a few of the fringe, AAAA type pitchers that could end up at Norfolk, you get a real bottleneck in Bowie and Frederick. Not a problem if they're more willing to promote some guys mid-season than they have been in the past.

I can scarcely believe that the Orioles would allow a bunch of AAA journeymen to push the real prospects back to AA for another year. I know MacPhail is conservative, but why in the world would anyone do that? The Hennesseys and Burresses and Waters of the world are fungible talents. They shouldn't be blocking anyone with any kind of a prospect label. If it comes down to it, release the whole mess of them. We got 'em for free, we can always find more.

[Frobby]

I can scarcely believe that the Orioles would allow a bunch of AAA journeymen to push the real prospects back to AA for another year. I know MacPhail is conservative, but why in the world would anyone do that? The Hennesseys and Burresses and Waters of the world are fungible talents. They shouldn't be blocking anyone with any kind of a prospect label. If it comes down to it, release the whole mess of them. We got 'em for free, we can always find more.

I think the O's will decide where they want their top prospects to be in the minors, and fill in around them. For example, because Norfolk is a big ballpark that doesn't punish pitchers who allow a lot of fly balls, the O's might decide that their fly ball pitchers are going to stay at Bowie where they're more likely to work on getting the ball down; whereas their ground ball pitchers are going to go to Norfolk. Or, maybe they prefer to let anyone who had success at Bowie already proceed to Norfolk to face more experienced hitters. In any event, their top priority is getting their top prospects to the place where they will develop the best, wherever that is.

[blid]

Worth the shot but I've got dollars to donuts the guy is done.

[Mark Carver]

I think the O's will decide where they want their top prospects to be in the minors, and fill in around them. For example, because Norfolk is a big ballpark that doesn't punish pitchers who allow a lot of fly balls, the O's might decide that their fly ball pitchers are going to stay at Bowie where they're more likely to work on getting the ball down; whereas their ground ball pitchers are going to go to Norfolk. Or, maybe they prefer to let anyone who had success at Bowie already proceed to Norfolk to face more experienced hitters. In any event, their top priority is getting their top prospects to the place where they will develop the best, wherever that is.

The Orioles have moved last years AA pitching coach Mike Griffin to Norfolk for 2009. Suffice to say that general thinking is that those that were at Bowie in 2008, will be in Norfolk in 2009, to follow him.

[Fan4Life]

Worth the shot but I've got dollars to donuts the guy is done.

You're on. I'll put up 100 doughnuts, you $100. He'll stay with this team all season and the Cubs will get to pick the PTBNL from us. That's the criteria.

[PrivateO]

I still feel the team will play the safe game with Albers. He was great when he was healthy last year.

They're not going to risk anything with him, or Patton.

[Sports Guy]

You're on. I'll put up 100 doughnuts, you $100. He'll stay with this team all season and the Cubs will get a pick from us. That's the criteria.

Not possible.....

[PaulBako]

Not possible.....

No! Not possible!

http://www.nonotpossible.com/

[Fan4Life]

Not possible.....

A Pick = PTBNL

[wildcard]

I thought that Hennessey had a real shot - before they traded for Hill and Pauley and got into the Looper sweepstakes. Since he's signed to a minor league contract, I expect them to stash him at Norfolk, along with Liz, Albers, and Waters until someone on the staff gets injured or stinks. If Looper is signed and guys pitch like they're capable of, I would expect things to shake out something like:

SPs: Guthrie, Uehara, Looper, Hill, Penn/Pauley

RPs: Sherrill, Johnson, Walker, Ray, Sarfate, Baez, and Hendrickson

But, there are some wildcards that could come into play. Health of Ray and Baez. Effectiveness of Hill, Baez and Walker. Any desire by management to protect an out of options guy like Bass/Pauley/Penn.

The downside of this - our AAA rotation could be Liz, Albers, Waters, Hennessey, and Burres which pushes all of our best pitching down to Bowie - Patton, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen, Hernandez and Berken, not to mention Spoone when he's healthy and someone like Zach Clark. If they don't waive a few of the fringe, AAAA type pitchers that could end up at Norfolk, you get a real bottleneck in Bowie and Frederick. Not a problem if they're more willing to promote some guys mid-season than they have been in the past.

Excellent, logical post ----- until you got to the minors.

AAA rotation -- Tillman, Liz, Bergesen, D Hernandez, Berken

AAA Pen - Albers, Hennessey, Waters, Mickolio, Miller, Burres,

AA rotation -- Patton, Arrieta, Erbe, Spoone(when healthy)

Of course injuries can change all that.

I think the O's good with 13 pitcher to keep both Pauley and Penn.

If they have to DFA Moore or Penn, then Moore is the one to send through waivers.