Trade Idea - Pittsburgh Pirates

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Spare parts might’ve been too harsh of a term but Hall’s and Stowers’ values have to be pretty low right now. 

I wasn’t big on Hall last year. But, he still has the stuff and potential. Stowers needs a chance to play everyday which he clearly didn’t get here. The two should be good enough to get you a solid  7th inning reliever 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

I wasn’t big on Hall last year. But, he still has the stuff and potential. Stowers needs a chance to play everyday which he clearly didn’t get here. The two should be good enough to get you a solid  7th inning reliever 

We don't actually know if Hall still has the stuff.

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Spare parts might’ve been too harsh of a term but Hall’s and Stowers’ values have to be pretty low right now. 

BTW, Stowers has a 1.068 OPS at AAA and he only got 30 ABs in the bigs this year. I think he has around 100 overall. Really not much of a chance by the Os so far. Hopefully some team that is selling is scouting him an sees value. 

[Aristotelian]

I doubt they trade him and I don't think I would want to do a high level prospect for a bullpen guy. I'd rather do an EdRod for Miller type of deal, and even that might be too much. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I'd give that serious consideration.  It would depend on if a better trade could be made, but if it can to it I'd probably pull the trigger on it. 

I think the Orioles would need to swap out Stowers/Haskin for a better prospect, but as-is I'd make that deal too. Orioles would have a great back end of the bullpen and could effectively shorten games to six innings when they have the lead.

[interloper]

I love Bednar. This is the guy I want. I'd make this deal all day.

[G54377]

Bednar would give us a pretty electric 7-9 bullpen, and all under team control for years. I'd be interested to see what other deals we could make first since Norby and Stowers would be key pieces for a lot of deals. This is probably a better risk reward than someone like ERod with the injury concerns. 

[Camden_yardbird]

So Norby looks like he's

1.  Pretty close to the majors

2. Limited mostly to SS and or 2B

3.  The centerpiece of this deal

While I think that Pittsburgh might take this deal I don't know that it makes sense for them.  They currently have Kebryan Hayes locked in at third.  Oniell Cruz has been injured but is far and away a better prospect than Norby, and their current 2B, nick Gonzalez, has favorable if not straight better stats than Norby in AAA and has gotten off to hot start in the majors.

I look at the Pirates this year as the Orioles of last.  They won't make the playoffs but they are also very competitive and are sitting on a strong farm that should push them into contention next year.  They aren't in "amass prospects phase". 

That said the proposed trade looks a bit like the trade with the twins last year.  So maybe.

Just some observations from someone who may be a bit more familiar with the current landscape of the pirates than some other fans here.

 

 

[Three Run Homer]

I might be willing to include Kjerstad or Mayo in this trade if it was expanded to include Keller as well as Bednar.   Would be VERY painful to give up a bat like Kjerstad or Mayo, but you have to give up quality to get quality back.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I might be willing to include Kjerstad or Mayo in this trade if it was expanded to include Keller as well as Bednar.   Would be VERY painful to give up a bat like Kjerstad or Mayo, but you have to give up quality to get quality back.   

And the idea of making Mountcastle a centerpiece of any deal isn’t going to bring back any pitcher of value.

The Orioles are so stocked that if the right pitcher becomes available it’s worth considering trading a Mayo or a Kjerstad. 

[Filmstudy]

Let's start by taking a look at who the Orioles got for Lopez last year...

1. 2 pitchers who were both at high A (I state because of the high risk of such pitchers due to injury/ineffectiveness)

2. Both mid-range prospects in the 11-14 range within the Twins system if I recall, but neither a top 100 guy

3.  Lopez was among the game's best relievers with 2.5 years of control (Bednar has 3.5), at a similar age, but with no previous record of success

So I think it's fair to say the prospect package sent should be more than the value of McDermott and Povich at that time

Let's look at Norby by himself

1. At AAA, just turned 23

2. Top 100 prospect (MLB pipeline makes him the 4th best 2B prospect in the game) with 2023 OPS of .795 and MILB career OPS of .841

3. Position player, so the risk of disappearance due to injury is much lower than with Povich or McDermott

I don't want to simply state this, so I'll ask it as a question...Setting need aside, would you be more excited to have Norby in July 2023 or McDermott/Povich in July 2022?

 

 

[ArtVanDelay]

6 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I might be willing to include Kjerstad or Mayo in this trade if it was expanded to include Keller as well as Bednar.   Would be VERY painful to give up a bat like Kjerstad or Mayo, but you have to give up quality to get quality back.   

So, hypothetically, you would trade Bradish and Bautista for Kjerstad and Norby?

That’s what you’re suggesting Pittsburgh does and calling it painful from the Orioles perspective. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by ArtVanDelay

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

Let's start by taking a look at who the Orioles got for Lopez last year...

1. 2 pitchers who were both at high A (I state because of the high risk of such pitchers due to injury/ineffectiveness)

2. Both mid-range prospects in the 11-14 range within the Twins system if I recall, but neither a top 100 guy

3.  Lopez was among the game's best relievers with 2.5 years of control (Bednar has 3.5), at a similar age, but with no previous record of success

So I think it's fair to say the prospect package sent should be more than the value of McDermott and Povich at that time

Let's look at Norby by himself

1. At AAA, just turned 23

2. Top 100 prospect (MLB pipeline makes him the 4th best 2B prospect in the game) with 2023 OPS of .795 and MILB career OPS of .841

3. Position player, so the risk of disappearance due to injury is much lower than with Povich or McDermott

I don't want to simply state this, so I'll ask it as a question...Setting need aside, would you be more excited to have Norby in July 2023 or McDermott/Povich in July 2022?

 

 

Well it depends on team needs but my answer would be Norby. It’s probably Norby even if talking about 2023 Povich or McDermott.

[Filmstudy]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well it depends on team needs but my answer would be Norby. It’s probably Norby even if talking about 2023 Povich or McDermott.

I agree and I don't really think it's too close.

To that end, I think Norby is at least the bulk of the value the O's should have to give up for a pitcher like Bednar and maybe 100% of it.  I definitely would not throw in Stowers, Willems or another 100-200 position player.  I have no idea what Hall's value is right now, so I'll leave that to the organization, but he's at least a cautionary tale on the relative value of young pitchers vs position players.

[ArtVanDelay]

4 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

I agree and I don't really think it's too close.

To that end, I think Norby is at least the bulk of the value the O's should have to give up for a pitcher like Bednar and maybe 100% of it.  I definitely would not throw in Stowers, Willems or another 100-200 position player.  I have no idea what Hall's value is right now, so I'll leave that to the organization, but he's at least a cautionary tale on the relative value of young pitchers vs position players.

I don’t think their trade values are close.  Lopez was a career 6+ ERA guy that pitched well in 40 games.  Bednar has been dominant for 3 years.  Also an extra year of control as you stated. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by ArtVanDelay