Trade Idea - Pittsburgh Pirates

[CaptainRedbeard]

Bednar is closer to Felix Bautista’s trade value now than Jorge Lopez’s value last year. The track record is very relevant (as we’ve seen with Lopez falling off this year). Bednar has 2.5 years of dominance compared to Bautista’s 1.5, and 3.5 yrs of control left to Bautista’s 4.5. The one fewer year of control is partially mitigated by having a longer track record of performance.

Norby was a back-end of the top 100 prospect coming into this season but he’s had a bad year so far. Even coming into this year every report included his defensive limitations - passable at best at 2B, not enough athleticism/arm for the OF, not even tall enough to play 1B. And much more importantly, his power has cratered this year and his K/BB rates are not great. He is running a .344 BABIP but even with that only a 93 wRC+. He does have upside still  and could definitely turn thing around, but if he finishes the season with these same numbers he will definitely fall off the top 100 lists.

[Filmstudy]

12 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I hear you, but how else do you propose that we get the requisite starting pitching talent necessary to match up for 2/3 playoff rounds to get through the American League and on to the World Series? 

Injury risks are very real for pitchers especially starters and trades are risky as well. But I just don’t see us being able to avoid acquiring such talent in the draft year over year combined with lacking the “magic formula” of being able to take lower picks and/or international players and develop them into elite starters and then being able to hedge our bets all the way to becoming a team that is better than the Atlanta Braves.

IMO they are the favorites as the best team in the sport and they have a complete roster. Even if we make it through the AL, we will be the underdog against them. With the amount of organizational talent that we possess, I am not okay with accepting an underdog status because we are too risk adverse to do what is necessary to balance out our roster.

If the Orioles put together a huge package for Ohtani, they'd still be an underdog to this Braves team.  So isn't it just a matter of how much of an underdog you want to be in 2023 and how much gets sacrificed in terms of value in 2024 and beyond?

Beyond that, to substantially increase their hopes to win the WS as a percentage of their chance to make the playoffs, the most important step is to win the division, perhaps get a bye, and not concern themselves with the relative might of the Braves.  The Rays are the Bogey.  The Rangers are probably the secondary concern.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Filmstudy

[Sports Guy]

You definitely have to give up more than just Norby to get Bednar.

There is not one warning sign for Bednar. He is only 28, he has lots of team control, he has dominant peripherals and dominant statcast numbers.

The only issue is do you trade a lot for a reliever knowing that the reliever is going to cost a lot of money and he won’t be your closer? Now, I’m not bothered by the closer part and hopefully Elias wouldn’t be either but just saying, money could be a factor in this, long term.

I think I would have to make this trade but as I said, can you get another really good reliever for a lot less and you just prefer to go that route?

I would say you should rather want the best guy you can get but can you get 80% of the talent of Bednar for 50% of the cost?  I think that’s the question you have to ask.

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, Filmstudy said:

If the Orioles put together a huge package for Ohtani, they'd still be an underdog to this Braves team.  So isn't it just a matter of how much of an underdog you want to be in 2023 and how much gets sacrificed in terms of value in 2024 and beyond?

Beyond that, to substantially increase their hopes to win the WS as a percentage of their chance to make the playoffs, the most important step is to win the division, perhaps get a bye, and not concern themselves with the relative might of the Braves.  The Rays are the Bogey.  The Rangers are probably the secondary concern.

I agree that the main focus this season needs to be those priorities that you describe (win division, beat Rays, Rangers, Yanks, etc in order to get through the AL).

I was not just talking this season though, I was talking about shaping the roster going forward. Right now it is projectable in a year or so that we will have an offense as good if not better than the Rays, Rangers, Braves (all offenses that are amongst the best in the game).

However, what all those teams have (that we currently don't) is front line TOR quality starting pitching. We don't have a Fried, a McClanahan, and Elder, etc. (I know that McClanahan is hurt right now but in all likelihood he will still be a problem for us to deal with next year).

When you have good starting pitching it gives you another weapon in the arsenal when it comes to increasing your odds for post season success. I believe that the more ways that you can beat an opponent the better off that you will ultimately be.

Right now IMO the weaknesses in our roster is having no true ace AND having very unreliable middle relievers. This causes us IMO to be over reliant on our 2/3 back end relievers for the way in which we have to win most games (especially against the better teams). And I believe that flaw is bound to be exposed at some point in the postseason.

And the larger problem to me is that with all of our great young talent/prospects, we do not have many/if any solutions in term's of in-house org talent to solve this issue in the projectable future. IMO Grayson Rodriguez is really the only pitcher in the entire org that projects with that type of profile. But what if he doesn't succeed at reaching his potential? Or what if it takes him a while like it took Gausman?

IMO we can succeed this year and in to the projectable future in the regular season because of our tremendous depth/org talent. But in the postseason (with shorten series) depth is much less of an important factor. In that scenario a team like the Yankees or Twins don't have to beat us over the long haul, they just have to have use their tremendous advantage at pitching to their advantage for 2-4 games or all it takes is for one of our relievers to blow one, or for our starter to give up a bomb or two (Tyler Wells) and then it's over.

IMO we have a very thin margin for success with the roster that we have now. I would like to see us widen that margin by increasing the talent with the starting pitching so that we give ourselves more ways of defeating our opponents in the Fall.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

I don’t think their trade values are close.  Lopez was a career 6+ ERA guy that pitched well in 40 games.  Bednar has been dominant for 3 years.  Also an extra year of control as you stated. 

The 6 ERA guys was a starter stat. Lots of guys have went from failed starter to dominate RP. We definitely sold hi on him and I don’t really care what they are asking. You don’t give up blue chip prospects for relievers. 
 

When we traded for Andrew Miller he only netted E Rod. I know he was a decent prospect but I don’t think he was a top 100 guy. Bednar does have 3+ years of control but relievers are a crap shoot. Would I give up a three player package for him. Sure ….but only one top 100 and two guys in the lower end of our top 30. 

[ArtVanDelay]

Andrew Miller was a pending free agent when we traded for him.  

[RVAOsFan]

I love the idea of adding another dominant RP and we have the prospects to get it done if someone wants to move one.  I think the thing to consider about getting a dominant reliever like this one who has the remaining control is we can always flip him again before he is a free agent and get good prospects back.  I don't have anything to back this up but it always seems like the rental relievers fetch more at the deadline than any other rental position because of the impact they can have in a playoff race. 

[Aristotelian]

9 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

So Norby looks like he's

1.  Pretty close to the majors

2. Limited mostly to SS and or 2B

3.  The centerpiece of this deal

While I think that Pittsburgh might take this deal I don't know that it makes sense for them.  They currently have Kebryan Hayes locked in at third.  Oniell Cruz has been injured but is far and away a better prospect than Norby, and their current 2B, nick Gonzalez, has favorable if not straight better stats than Norby in AAA and has gotten off to hot start in the majors.

I look at the Pirates this year as the Orioles of last.  They won't make the playoffs but they are also very competitive and are sitting on a strong farm that should push them into contention next year.  They aren't in "amass prospects phase". 

That said the proposed trade looks a bit like the trade with the twins last year.  So maybe.

Just some observations from someone who may be a bit more familiar with the current landscape of the pirates than some other fans here.

 

 

Trade Simulator has Bednar at 40, Norby at 8. I don't think Norby is close to getting three years of a 2+ WAR reliever at a huge price discount. Probably Mayo gets them to pick up the phone and we need to add some pieces to get it done. 

Pittsburgh extended Reynolds. They probably think with Cruz back and some of their prospects they aren't far from competing in a weak division. They will not want to tread water trading a guy who can definitely help them over three years for control of meh guys for six years. They probably think they can get a similar return from a wealthy team next year if they are out of it again. 

[interloper]

While I love OP's trade idea, Jorge Lopez, a guy with less of a track record than Bednar, commanded a 4-player haul headlined by a very good LH SP prospect in Povich.

I think for Bednar, who the Pirates probably prefer to keep because they feel they're close to contending, a trade looks like:

Povich or Rom
Ortiz, or similar top 100 guy
ML-ready fill-in arm similar to how we got Cano, so let's say Gillaspie
Low A throw-in

Edited July 13, 2023 by interloper

[Number5]

I frankly don't see Bednar as a target for the Orioles.  Too costly.  As SG pointed out, I'm sure there are good middle relievers available that would help us and cost much less.  It just seems to me that there are probably more efficient wants to spend our prospect capital.

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You definitely have to give up more than just Norby to get Bednar.

There is not one warning sign for Bednar. He is only 28, he has lots of team control, he has dominant peripherals and dominant statcast numbers.

The only issue is do you trade a lot for a reliever knowing that the reliever is going to cost a lot of money and he won’t be your closer? Now, I’m not bothered by the closer part and hopefully Elias wouldn’t be either but just saying, money could be a factor in this, long term.

I think I would have to make this trade but as I said, can you get another really good reliever for a lot less and you just prefer to go that route?

I would say you should rather want the best guy you can get but can you get 80% of the talent of Bednar for 50% of the cost?  I think that’s the question you have to ask.

I love Bednar, but I agree they shouldn’t be paying the premium it will take to get him. If it were just Norby + lesser prospects I would definitely do that, but it would be more than that. They are better off going cheaper for a guy who is a notch below and with less team control. 

They can trade for a rental/1.5 yr type like Robertson/Hicks/Barlow and if they want to commit a lot of resources to RP, sign Hader in the off-season. 

[Roll Tide]

30 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I love Bednar, but I agree they shouldn’t be paying the premium it will take to get him. If it were just Norby + lesser prospects I would definitely do that, but it would be more than that. They are better off going cheaper for a guy who is a notch below and with less team control. 

They can trade for a rental/1.5 yr type like Robertson/Hicks/Barlow and if they want to commit a lot of resources to RP, sign Hader in the off-season. 

Correct ….. Don’t go get a closer if you don’t need one. Part of dominant relief is confidence. Demoting him might have a negative impact. Plus I understand he might be able to deal him later before he reaches free agency.  But he’d lose value when he changes roles, could get injured, or become victim of RP volatility.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Andrew Miller was a pending free agent when we traded for him.  

I know that …. I don’t think it’s worth paying a premium for a closer when you don’t need one.

[HakunaSakata]

It seems silly to pay this price for a RP, when there are much cheaper alteratives that will be available. And it's not exactly like a long term future closer is high on our priority list. 

Trade a lower level prospect for someone like Jordan Hicks instead (for this season) and continue to draft, sign, and develop the fututre bullpen guys long term. Just like we did with Cano 

[RZNJ]

I like the idea.  With 3 or 4 shutdown relievers the pressure is on the other team to have the lead going into the 6th inning.  That was the Royals strength when they went to back to back WS.   I don’t care if it’s Bednar but I would have no problem if it was and we asked him to setup for us.  Hard to believe he wouldn’t be on board with that role for the rest of this season and the post season.   Could be a problem for the 2024 season as it would affect his earning power down the road.    I would love to see what Hall and McDermott could do in a relief role as well but I doubt we would be able to count on either as much as someone like Bednar.   I also like the 2 guys on Detroit, Lange and Foley, and assume someone like David Robertson could be very available.