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What would you have said......?


Tony-OH

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17 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

That reads as a resume for manager of the year. 

Great post. If a team is greater than the sum of parts and playing this well, you have to give a lot of the credit to the manager. 

Felix is the MVO this year and I don't really think it's remotely close. Nor do I think anyone has a shot of jumping in front of him by the end of the season. 

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The AL East is next level good.  

O's haven't had a ton of health issues (really only Cedric because Means was a known), but we've had our share of performance issues. 

We have a full roster contribution with the L/R matchups with the necessary defensive flexibility that goes with it.  Teams like NYY and Toronto just don't have that bench strength.

We knew their offense would be the workhorse.  We assumed the bullpen regression, but missed just how big the Mountain would be.  Some of us bought into a Bradish breakout.  Wells had quality traits but still needed to prove it and he's done that.  But the rest of the rotation is basically what we thought they'd be.

 

But Tampa's pitching has been decimated:  Baz, Fleming, Rasmussen, Springs, Glasnow, McClanahan?...  

 

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10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I do think you can’t quantify how much he means in terms of wins.    He’s not perfect but he has been amazing.

The rub is, the few runs he’s allowed have come at the worst times, for the most part.  He’s only allowed runs in 7 games, but in five of those, he was protecting a 1-run lead.  Hence, there are a number of closers who have been significantly less dominant than Bautista but who have a better ratio of saves vs. blown saves.  

Felix has had 16 opportunities for a 1-run save, and blown 5 of them.  That’s not particularly good — when I looked at closer save rates about 10 years ago, closers saved one-run leads about 75% of the time.  Now, one of Felix’s five blown saves was when McKenna dropped the 27th out, another was an extra inning game with the ghost runner on 2B.  So, he’s not fully responsible.   
But I’m just saying, he hasn’t really done better than a league average closer when it comes to protecting a 1-run lead.  On the other hand, he’s only allowed a single run once in the 15 games where he was protecting a 2 or 3 run lead.   

This sounds like I’m complaining — I’m not.  As I said above, I’d vote for Felix for team MVP if the vote were held today.  I just wish that a higher percentage of the few runs he’s allowed had come at times when they were less consequential.
 

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I was going to start a post a couple days ago titled "Can someone explain to me how we are winning so much?" 

I looked at our parts and could not figure out how we are so good.  I think this thread kind of gets into some of the why.  A little.  

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3 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

I was going to start a post a couple days ago titled "Can someone explain to me how we are winning so much?" 

I looked at our parts and could not figure out how we are so good.  I think this thread kind of gets into some of the why.  A little.  

They win close one run, two run games.  I think the run differential is the way it is because we've had a few games where they've been blown out a little bit.  

So the winning margins are fairly thin, the losing margins, at times, can be pretty wide.  And, IIRC, they don't have a lot of laughers where they're blowing teams out and winning by a large amount.  

At least that's what it feels like when watching this team.  I'm probably wrong.

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For the most part, the Orioles don’t beat themselves.  I see the base running mistakes, mental errors and physical more so from other teams.   I just think the O’s are very strong in this area and a lot of times that’s the difference in a close game.  The O’s are good at not giving teams free extra bases, extra outs, excetera.

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1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

if I told you in spring training that the Orioles would be in 1st place on July 21st but:

  • Cedric Mullins would miss significant time with two stints on the IL
  • Grayson Rodriguez would have 7.33 ERA in 11 starts
  • Kyle Gibson would have a 4.76 ERA in 21 starts
  • Dean Kremer would have a 4.80 ERA in 20 starts
  • Cole Irvin would have a 5.11 ERA in 8 starts, 11 games and spent significant time in AAA
  • Baker (3.83), Perez (4.88), Voth (4.94), and Akin (6.85) all would take steps back from their 2022 performances
  • Mychal Givens would have an 11.25 ERA in just six games over 4 IP
  • Dillon Tate and John Means have not pitched in the majors yet
  • DL Hall would only pitch in only one game at the majors and be in Florida getting reset
  • Ryan Mountcastle would be slashing .233/.268/.424/.692 and lost his job against right-handers to Ryan O'Hearn
  • Aaron Hicks would be starting outfielder for the Orioles
  • Jorge Mateo would be slashing .214/.264/.346/.610 and lost his everyday gig
  • The Yankees would be in last place in the AL East


Now, this is not a negative post at all. What I'm trying to show is that it's not like everything has gone right for this team and they are catching lightning in a bottle. This team has overcome injuries and poor performances from players they were counting on coming into the year, yet here they are in first place.

Now obviously there are a lot of good stories:

  • The emergence of Felix Bautista as an absolute dominant force at the back of the bullpen
  • Austin Hays slashing .300/.338/.473/.811
  • Gunnar Henderson slashing .247/.342/.476/.818 
  • Anthony Santander slashing .271/.345/.494/.839
  • Adley Rutschman slashing .274/.373/.431/.804    
  • The emergence of Ryan O'Hearn, .305/.353/.506/.859
  • The emergence of Yennier Cano 1.53 ERA over 41 games and 47 IP.
  • Kyle Bradish with a 3.05 ERA in 17 starts
  • Tyler Wells with a 3.54 ERA in 18 starts (19 games) despite giving up 22 HRs


Now, the Orioles are playing above their Pythagorean W-L: 53-43, 477 Runs, 429 Runs Allowed by six games, but I just find out it absolutely amazing that this team is in the first place in the hardest division in baseball while everything has not gone perfect. In fact, far from perfect. 

I really don't even have a theory on why they are doing so well overall other than this team just finds ways to win. 

And no matter what, I'm going to try and enjoy the ride!

   

I would have told you to put down the pipe, Tony but I'd have also asked you for the lotto number because those would have been some crazy and very specific predictions. 

I think the key to their success this year has been the unbelievable consistency. I think that it's fair to suggest that only Felix has been consistently GREAT the entire year. Just about every other guy has been pretty consistent or even throughout the entire season. Gunnar had a crap first two months. Since then he's put together a stellar two months. They lose 6 of 7 then go on to win 8 in a row. Things seem to even-out in a perplexing way for them this year, never getting too high and never getting too low. 

One of the more important skills (if you can call it a skill) of good pitchers is their consistency. A repeatable delivery can really be a difference-maker for a pitcher. Look at DL Hall. All the talent in the world but can't repeat it. If you look at any productive pitcher, like ever, you're likely to find that they have/had consistency. It's why pitchers are usually good golfers and good bowlers. The O's this year have been oddly consistent. Look at the dynamic at First. Mountcastle has the ability to go on tears for a week or two at a time and carry the club. He also has the propensity to disappear for weeks at a time. The rotation at first between Ant, O'Hearn and Urias while Mountcastle was out gave them more consistent production from the position. 

I think that's the key. Gunnar is blossoming into a bonafide superstar while Adley already has star power. They've got a roster that is, from top to bottom, better than average literally everywhere right now. Gibson has had moments as a weak link, as has Gunnar, Mountcastle has been really bad at times, etc. etc. you say that about every player on the team. They somehow even it out though. It's Orioles Magic, baby!

 

 

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1 hour ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I think Hyde has done a helluva job.  My only problem with Hyde is he has never shown the slightest indication of a personality.  

 

53 minutes ago, interloper said:

Completely disagree on the personality thing. You haven't really been paying close enough attention IMO. 

Yeah, that "no personality" statement confused me as well. 

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