Our pitching doesn't get enough respect

[Baltimorecuse]

We're 46-11 in games where the opposition scores 4 runs or less.  That's 78% of our wins.

In 77% of our games we've held the opposition to less than the league scoring average.  

We held TB to 3 runs two games in a row and TB averages 5.2.  Yeah, I know, they are in a slump.  I think it's still good.  We're 12-6 where the opp scores 3.  

They bought GR up and threw him in against arguably the second hottest hitting team in baseball while our defense took the night off.  Now he has to face one of the best pitchers in baseball.  I think Grayson can match up.  

[Jim'sKid26]

So, Bradish stepped up and gave us 6+. He didn't win but allowed them to rest the back end of the bullpen. That was big. Also, Perez had a solid outing. That was good to see. I think it went un-noticed but it was not a low leverage situation. Encouraging. 2 Ks as well.

Grayson needs to pound the zone. I hope he can minimize the use of his FB and use his breaking stuff effectively. TB is a really good FB hitting team. Getting ahead so he can throw his breaking stuff strike to ball will be the key. If he has to throw FBs in FB counts he likely to get hit pretty hard. This will be a great test for him.

[Moose Milligan]

I don't think our pitching gets a lot of respect because there isn't a household name in the mix.  And we're still trying to figure out if some of these guys are long term solutions (Bradish, yes...Kremer, maybe....Wells, yes) while we're in a playoff hunt.

Sorting out our pitching staff is kind of like trying to fix an airplane while it's flying.  

The OP mentions that we have to face one of the best pitchers in baseball.  I don't think any of us would consider anyone in our rotation as one of the best pitchers in baseball, despite the fact that Bradish and Wells have been pitching like it.  Like most things around here, I believe we're waiting for the other shoe to drop and these guys to revert back to some median form of average that we're all too familiar with.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Like most things around here, I believe we're waiting for the other shoe to drop and these guys to revert back to some median form of average that we're all too familiar with.

 

When your two major pitching acquisitions in the off season are Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin, a fan base can get like that. It was hardly a "lift off." 

Now Elias has to decide whether to mortgage the future to get a ToR starter at the deadline or stand pat and know he's not likely to matchup well in a short series with a playoff opponent. Tough place to be. I think he thought he was going to be able to avoid this predicament by acquiring a good SP last off season and got handed a budget that had him shopping at the Dollar store instead of Saks.

[Frobby]

The team is 9th of 15 teams in ERA; the starters are 9th and the bullpen is 6th.  Exactly how much respect should they get?  They’re not terrible, but they’re no more than decent as a group.  

You pointed out that the O’s have allowed 4 runs or less in 57 games.   Through MLB, the average is 54 games.  So, that’s not really an outlier number.  
 

[Bemorewins]

I agree that Bradish and Wells haven’t gotten a lot of national attention in regards to the seasons that they have put together this year, but Cano and Bautista have IMO.

Beyond that who amongst our pitching staff has gotten the results that demand a ton of respect? Coulombe has had a nice season, but you can find comparable on mostly every other team. 

IMO the rest have been mediocre to very bad.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The team is 9th of 15 teams in ERA; the starters are 9th and the bullpen is 6th.  Exactly how much respect should they get?  They’re not terrible, but they’re no more than decent as a group.  

You pointed out that the O’s have allowed 4 runs or less in 57 games.   Through MLB, the average is 54 games.  So, that’s not really an outlier number.  
 

Not sure where to find the team splits but feels like we are overall on an upward trajectory. Bradish and Kremer got blown up a bunch early but both have been very good. The Grayson/Irvin spot was bad early but has been good since Irvin came back. Wells has slipped a bit but overall I feel better about the rotation now than in April-May. I can turn the game on after dinner and we are usually in the game even if I missed the beginning.

[Spy Fox]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Not sure where to find the team splits but feels like we are overall on an upward trajectory. Bradish and Kremer got blown up a bunch early but both have been very good. The Grayson/Irvin spot was bad early but has been good since Irvin came back. Wells has slipped a bit but overall I feel better about the rotation now than in April-May. I can turn the game on after dinner and we are usually in the game even if I missed the beginning.

July has been their best month by a lot. Before that they were basically steady or on a mild downward trajectory of 4.22 - 4.29 - 4.55 monthly ERA in April/May/June. 

As for the 4 runs or less comment in the OP, the average runs/game in MLB is between 4 and 5. So, performing well when you allow 4 or less doesn't tell me much about the O's. Basically every team will do well when allowing 4 or less, since that inherently means they had an above average pitching performance in that game. 

I actually agree though that the pitching often doesn't get enough credit. The staff lacks star power (outside of Bautista) but it's also pretty competent from top to bottom and the collective effort has been better than a lot of people predicted. 

[Moshagge3]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The team is 9th of 15 teams in ERA; the starters are 9th and the bullpen is 6th.  Exactly how much respect should they get?  They’re not terrible, but they’re no more than decent as a group.  

You pointed out that the O’s have allowed 4 runs or less in 57 games.   Through MLB, the average is 54 games.  So, that’s not really an outlier number.  
 

They are 5th in the AL and 9th in MLB in FIP, though.

[24fps]

Bradish and Wells haven't gotten enough national respect.  Bautista and Cano have.  Otherwise O's pitching hasn't inspired a whole lot of confidence, especially from the bullpen.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So, Bradish stepped up and gave us 6+. He didn't win but allowed them to rest the back end of the bullpen. That was big. Also, Perez had a solid outing. That was good to see. I think it went un-noticed but it was not a low leverage situation. Encouraging. 2 Ks as well.

Grayson needs to pound the zone. I hope he can minimize the use of his FB and use his breaking stuff effectively. TB is a really good FB hitting team. Getting ahead so he can throw his breaking stuff strike to ball will be the key. If he has to throw FBs in FB counts he likely to get hit pretty hard. This will be a great test for him.

Hopefully last years Perez is back…. He looked strong last night.

[Malike]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Not sure where to find the team splits but feels like we are overall on an upward trajectory. Bradish and Kremer got blown up a bunch early but both have been very good. The Grayson/Irvin spot was bad early but has been good since Irvin came back. Wells has slipped a bit but overall I feel better about the rotation now than in April-May. I can turn the game on after dinner and we are usually in the game even if I missed the beginning.

I often wonder why people keep saying this about Bradish. He got hit with a comebacker in his first start and pitched 1.2 innings, missed a couple of starts, then on April 25th Boston blew him up for 7 runs. He's given up 4 runs once (May 23rd), and hasn't given up more than 3 runs the rest of the season.

[DocJJ]

Kremer started off the year pretty good and 2 of his last 3 outings were good, but his ERA is now around the 5.00 mark and he seems to have reverted back to mediocre girl-with-the-curl type...

[Baltimorecuse]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

July has been their best month by a lot. Before that they were basically steady or on a mild downward trajectory of 4.22 - 4.29 - 4.55 monthly ERA in April/May/June. 

As for the 4 runs or less comment in the OP, the average runs/game in MLB is between 4 and 5. So, performing well when you allow 4 or less doesn't tell me much about the O's. Basically every team will do well when allowing 4 or less, since that inherently means they had an above average pitching performance in that game. 

I actually agree though that the pitching often doesn't get enough credit. The staff lacks star power (outside of Bautista) but it's also pretty competent from top to bottom and the collective effort has been better than a lot of people predicted. 

But we've done it more often than a lot of other teams.  

[Billy F-Face3]

Seeing how nicely that Kyle Bradish has been developing (and Dean Kremer too, to a far lesser extent), I have to wonder how long it is before we can stop bemoaning that our coaching staff doesn't know how to develop pitchers. Felix Bautista and Yennier Cano are pitchers they helped to develop too. Not as much Cano because the Twins should be given credit for him (and Danny Coulombe too), but they helped him over the offseason and early in the season to make the tweaks that has helped him to be this good in 2023.

One step at a time. I think the pitching staff is trending in the right direction, it's just taking longer than we had hoped.

I'd like to see Grayson take a big positive step in the right direction this afternoon.