The Loop could be closing..

[byrdz]

Not a terrible deal and I hope he can give us last years numbers but I have a gut feeling that he gets rocked. Coming over to the AL East from the NL, as an already borderline pitcher, and especially as an Oriole, never really seems to work out. Who knows, maybe the defense helps him, hope so, hope I'm wrong.

[Ruzious]

This actually makes sense if you think about it...To me, the Wigginton and Looper signings are kind of tied together.

With Looper in the fold, you can now feel good about a 12 man staff, which means you carry a normal 4 man bench...thus the signing of Wigginton.

That is a great observation.

Btw, is somebody spiking AM's coffee with extra cafeine? He's making so many moves, I can barely digest them.

[weams]

5 mil is CaBBrera money if we had arbitrated him. I think that we can get at least that type of production here.

[Guest afichter-OH]

I feel like we have such an overload of mediocre/unproven pitching talent that it's going to be nearly impossible to give everyone a fair evaluation in spring training. Not enough innings.

Maybe we should start intrasquad games on the second day of spring training just to give ample time to evaluate all these pitchers!

[NewMarketSean]

These are the kind of signings you try to avoid IMO.

1 like Wigginton is OK but you shouldn't keep going.

Hendrickson, Wigginton, and Looper for 10 million or Salazar, Hennessey, or Dunn (I know, just an example)?

Don't like paying money for middling, aging talent, especially when we aren't going to compete, thus the guaranteed average vs potential for sucking/potential for being very good doesnt mean as much.

Pay for top talent (Uehara is similar but special circumtance) and fill out the rest with youngsters.

Don't like the bullpen option because we have 8 options that could do the same thing Looper can in the bullpen.

Only way this is OK is if he's insurance in case most of our starters flop, and AM thinks he can flip him off without eating money.

The #1 goal was to sign pitchers who can pitch 6 IP each start and keep the BP rested. Looper fills that need. Hennessy would have been ten times worse than Looper.

[fearthenoodle]

I feel like we have such an overload of mediocre/unproven pitching talent that it's going to be nearly impossible to give everyone a fair evaluation in spring training. Not enough innings.

Maybe we should start intrasquad games on the second day of spring training just to give ample time to evaluate all these pitchers!

Spring evaluations will consist of more than just the few innings that are thrown in actual games. Most of the evaluating will be in bullpen sessions and practices with Kranitz and company.

[Florida_Osfan]

No way of saying this defnitely, and if so, then replace Hennessey with Penn, Pauley, Liz, Albers, Waters Bass, etc, etc.

You guys are greatly overrating Looper IMO...Say he gives you a .5 bette ERA and 40 more innings than a guy I mentioned above. Is that worth 5 million a year for 2009 and 2010.

I guarantee right now that by January 2010, people are looking at ways to get rid of Looper. Guaranteed. The odds are greatly in favor of that coming true. That's not a smart move to sign someone you know you will want to rid yourself of before the deal is over.

While you're right that Looper is not a reason to roll out the red carpet, perhaps you're harshly undervaluing him. Looper has a career ERA under 4, and while he's not a great addition, he can later serve as a bullpen arm if he flounders in the starting rotation. Not to mention, 5M a season is fine and is what we're giving Uehara--an even more unpredictable acquisition.

[DrungoHazewood]

No way of saying this defnitely, and if so, then replace Hennessey with Penn, Pauley, Liz, Albers, Waters Bass, etc, etc.

You guys are greatly overrating Looper IMO...Say he gives you a .5 bette ERA and 40 more innings than a guy I mentioned above. Is that worth 5 million a year for 2009 and 2010.

I guarantee right now that by January 2010, people are looking at ways to get rid of Looper. Guaranteed. The odds are greatly in favor of that coming true. That's not a smart move to sign someone you know you will want to rid yourself of before the deal is over.

Looper is probably good for 150 innings of a 5.00 in the AL East, with a little bit of upside. None of the waiver wire guys (Pauley, Hennessey, Waters, Bass, even Penn and Liz) are likely to give the O's much better than a 6.00, with innings to match that kind of performance before getting taken behind the barn and shot.

You're paying $5M a year for 40 runs over two years. If a win is 10 runs, then you're paying $2.5M per win. That's a good deal in this market. Last year a win in free agency was worth $4.5M.

The simple way to look at this is last year Looper was worth almost two wins, and the other guys were sub-replacement. Worth it in dollars, and worth it in not having to run through another half a year of the worst starters in baseball.

Now, if Looper ends up in the pen eating innings in blowouts the contract isn't going to be pretty. But it's $5M a year. That's what the O's routinely drop on zero-upside guys like Payton and Baez, and burn on Jay Gibbons types.

[rolliefingers]

These are the kind of signings you try to avoid IMO.

1 like Wigginton is OK but you shouldn't keep going.

Hendrickson, Wigginton, and Looper for 10 million or Salazar, Hennessey, or Dunn (I know, just an example)?

Don't like paying money for middling, aging talent, especially when we aren't going to compete, thus the guaranteed average vs potential for sucking/potential for being very good doesnt mean as much.

Pay for top talent (Uehara is similar but special circumtance) and fill out the rest with youngsters.

Don't like the bullpen option because we have 8 options that could do the same thing Looper can in the bullpen.

Only way this is OK is if he's insurance in case most of our starters flop, and AM thinks he can flip him off without eating money.

I believe you just answered your own point.

[Lucky Jim]

Looper is probably good for 150 innings of a 5.00 in the AL East, with a little bit of upside. None of the waiver wire guys (Pauley, Hennessey, Waters, Bass, even Penn and Liz) are likely to give the O's much better than a 6.00, with innings to match that kind of performance before getting taken behind the barn and shot.

You're paying $5M a year for 40 runs over two years. If a win is 10 runs, then you're paying $2.5M per win. That's a good deal in this market. Last year a win in free agency was worth $4.5M.

The simple way to look at this is last year Looper was worth almost two wins, and the other guys were sub-replacement. Worth it in dollars, and worth it in not having to run through another half a year of the worst starters in baseball.

Now, if Looper ends up in the pen eating innings in blowouts the contract isn't going to be pretty. But it's $5M a year. That's what the O's routinely drop on zero-upside guys like Payton and Baez, and burn on Jay Gibbons types.

Exactly. And we should note, too, that Ravenbird was comparing two pitchers and a hitter with two hitters and a pitcher.

For the same number of wins, the former is always likely to be higher in cost because of the market. Further, We haven't seen what Dunn has signed for just yet...

[Ruzious]

No way of saying this defnitely, and if so, then replace Hennessey with Penn, Pauley, Liz, Albers, Waters Bass, etc, etc.

You guys are greatly overrating Looper IMO...Say he gives you a .5 bette ERA and 40 more innings than a guy I mentioned above. Is that worth 5 million a year for 2009 and 2010.

Heck yes, and it's probably 50 innings more than any of those you mentioned. If he throws 200 innings with an under 5 ERA, there will be a market for him, because there aren't many guys available to do that with 1/5 left on their contract. For example, Perez signed yesterday for 3/36. Compare his stats to Looper's. Granted - that was the Mets, and they're paying extra for potential, but multi years at 12 mil per is worlds different from 1/5.

[TGO]

But Penn, Hill, Hennessey, Pauley, Liz, Albers, Patton, Beregeson...2 of those guys should be able to fill 2 spots without paying Looper 5 million to be below average. I thought that was the point of inventory?

Albers, Liz, Patton, and Bergesen all most likely need to go to Norfolk to start the season.

[Mark Carver]

So what you're saying is you basically have no hope for Penn, Pauley, Hill, Hennessey (who alot have said is a sleeper to make the rotation) Liz, Albers, and on and on and on?

If so, what's the point of picking them up?

I really think odds are that 1-2 of this wave of our pitchers come through and establish themselves as viable candidates in the rotation. If not, then you're right, I take Looper over a Waters or Simon.

But Penn, Hill, Hennessey, Pauley, Liz, Albers, Patton, Beregeson...2 of those guys should be able to fill 2 spots without paying Looper 5 million to be below average. I thought that was the point of inventory?

Last year the Orioles used 26 pitchers. The year before they used 27 pitchers. Pitchers will get rocked and get demoted and pitchers will get hurt.

[Frobby]

So what you're saying is you basically have no hope for Penn, Pauley, Hill, Hennessey (who alot have said is a sleeper to make the rotation) Liz, Albers, and on and on and on?

If so, what's the point of picking them up?

I really think odds are that 1-2 of this wave of our pitchers come through and establish themselves as viable candidates in the rotation. If not, then you're right, I take Looper over a Waters or Simon.

But Penn, Hill, Hennessey, Pauley, Liz, Albers, Patton, Beregeson...2 of those guys should be able to fill 2 spots without paying Looper 5 million to be below average. I thought that was the point of inventory?

I agree, odds are that 1-2 of them establish themselves as viable candidates. But in case you didn't notice, we have three open spots behind Guthrie and Uehara (who himself is something of an unknown). I'd rather get a guy like Looper to solidify the #3 spot and let the rest duke it out for #4-5. To me that's the right balance between going with some established veterans and some unproven players.

[DrungoHazewood]

So what you're saying is you basically have no hope for Penn, Pauley, Hill, Hennessey (who alot have said is a sleeper to make the rotation) Liz, Albers, and on and on and on?

If so, what's the point of picking them up?

Warm bodies have to be available because nobody goes through a whole year using only their top five starters. Almost every team gives 10, 20, 30 or more starts to guys who end up with 5.75 or 6.84 ERAs. These are those guys.

Some of them, like Penn, Albers, and Liz, probably have much higher upside in the bullpen than the rotation.