Verlander’s decline

[Hallas]

26 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

I feel like that's what motivated the Mets to sell in the first place though. They're kind of like the Yankees now in the sense that they probably never concede that they need to tear it down and rebuild. People inside their building probably think they'll sign a few guys this offseason and be contenders next year. But they realized that they could get outsized returns this deadline by leveraging their unlimited well of cash, and they have pitchers in a market that demands pitchers, so it presented a unique opportunity. If they're just going to get market value for a guy who they could retain for next season when they hope to be relevant, why trade him?

 

 

You're not wrong, but at the same time it's so hard to assign trade value to players where the receiving team doesn't have to pay full freight.  Like, Verlander obviously isn't worth it for ~55 million that he's owed for the next 2 years plus another 35 million vesting option.  If we're getting him for 25 million + his option...  is that worth Ortiz/Norby/Kjerstad/Mayo + another prospect outside the top-10?  I don't know, maybe?  With younger players you have the cost control and the knowledge that their age puts them in a good position to be available going forward.  But with a 40 year old pitcher?  Who on earth knows?  The Mets paying us off is certainly worth something, I just don't know what.

[Alasdaire]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

 

You're not wrong, but at the same time it's so hard to assign trade value to players where the receiving team doesn't have to pay full freight.  Like, Verlander obviously isn't worth it for ~55 million that he's owed for the next 2 years plus another 35 million vesting option.  If we're getting him for 25 million + his option...  is that worth Ortiz/Norby/Kjerstad/Mayo + another prospect outside the top-10?  I don't know, maybe?  With younger players you have the cost control and the knowledge that their age puts them in a good position to be available going forward.  But with a 40 year old pitcher?  Who on earth knows?  The Mets paying us off is certainly worth something, I just don't know what.

All fair questions. I just feel Elias could be getting pushed hard by other teams as an untested buyer who everyone knows is sitting on a gold mine of prospects. And the Mets in particular could be pushing their demands to the limit.

Verlander is a known commodity (assuming no injuries), the Mets don't have to trade him, there are multiple interested parties, and they're almost certainly putting money on the table. Of the group you mentioned, they might be asking for two of them for Verlander if Scherzer got them one. Maybe that type of trade will be worth it one day, but I'm not sure it's now, and I'm not sure it's worth it for a 40 year old.

[Baltimorecuse]

43 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

All fair questions. I just feel Elias could be getting pushed hard by other teams as an untested buyer who everyone knows is sitting on a gold mine of prospects. And the Mets in particular could be pushing their demands to the limit.

Verlander is a known commodity (assuming no injuries), the Mets don't have to trade him, there are multiple interested parties, and they're almost certainly putting money on the table. Of the group you mentioned, they might be asking for two of them for Verlander if Scherzer got them one. Maybe that type of trade will be worth it one day, but I'm not sure it's now, and I'm not sure it's worth it for a 40 year old.

You can bet your bippy that Elias won't make that trade.  We ARE winning on smoke and mirrors at least at the W-L we have.  Not a stat supports our success, not one.  I think Elias is looking at where we'll be in two years when these guys peak together.  

Meantime, I'm going to enjoy a season that defies the stats and logic.  

[Hallas]

13 minutes ago, Baltimorecuse said:

You can bet your bippy that Elias won't make that trade.  We ARE winning on smoke and mirrors at least at the W-L we have.  Not a stat supports our success, not one.  I think Elias is looking at where we'll be in two years when these guys peak together.  

Meantime, I'm going to enjoy a season that defies the stats and logic.  

This is entirely hyperbole.  We're a good team.  2012 was the smoke and mirrors team.

 

We're still a wild card team even if our pythagorean expectation matched our actual record. 

Edited August 1, 2023 by Hallas

[Baltimorecuse]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

This is entirely hyperbole.  We're a good team.  2012 was the smoke and mirrors team.

 

We're still a wild card team even if our pythagorean expectation matched our actual record. 

Did I say we aren't a good team?  Anywhere?  We've got the best record in the league.  Our stats don't support that.  

[Hallas]

Just now, Baltimorecuse said:

Did I say we aren't a good team?  Anywhere?  We've got the best record in the league.  Our stats don't support that.  

Saying we're winning on smoke and mirrors sure carries that implication.

[Baltimorecuse]

19 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Saying we're winning on smoke and mirrors sure carries that implication.

You're right.  I should have said "smoke and mirrors at this level."  Elias is a numbers guy by all accounts.  I doubt he thinks one more starter is going to win the World Series for us.  

[Hallas]

Well, he's going to Houston for Drew Gilbert and a fill-in.

 

Ortiz/Norby would have been a good comp.    That ain't much especially if the Mets are paying for a big chunk of salary.

[RVAOsFan]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Lots of talk about the Verlander rumor in the other thread. Let’s look at the merits of his actual performance:

K rate has declined each of the last 4 years. This year, it has gone from 9.51 last year to 7.73 this year.

His swingstr%, which has also dropped off a lot the last 3-4 years is down to 17.6%, from 19% in 2022.

His str%, which was 68.5% last year is at 63.9% this year, the lowest he has had since 2014.  His BB rate is double where it’s been the last few years and the highest it’s been since 2017.

His FIP is the highest it’s been since 2017 and it’s one of the highest numbers of his career.

Exit velo and hard hit% is the highest since at least 2015.  
 

And then there is this from Schoenfeld:

Verlander has been pitching better than Scherzer with a 3.15 ERA, including a 1.69 mark over his past six starts in which he has held batters to a .167 average and just one home run in 37⅓ innings. Don't mistake this version of Verlander as peak Verlander, however, or even the Cy Young winner of last season. Even over this stretch, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is a mediocre 32-to-16 and his swinging strike rate, which ranked in the 90th percentile in 2019 (pre-Tommy John surgery), is down to the 37th percentile. His hard-hit rate has also dropped, from the 74th percentile last season to the 39th. It's much more of a grind when he's out there on the mound, and he's relying on his knowledge as much as stuff these days.

 

So, all these bad signs and they want high level, top prospects for him. 
 

I’ll take him under certain scenarios but I don’t think those scenarios are realistic.

Would you have taken him for the scenario the Astros got him for? 55 overall OF 68 in top 100 and A Ball OF 50 overall?  More of less than you were thinking he would be traded for?

[oriole]

17 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Would you have taken him for the scenario the Astros got him for? 55 overall OF 68 in top 100 and A Ball OF 50 overall?  More of less than you were thinking he would be traded for?

Good lord, that is insane. Mets have got to be covering a ridiculous amount of money. 

[e16bball]

54 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Well, he's going to Houston for Drew Gilbert and a fill-in.

 

Ortiz/Norby would have been a good comp.    That ain't much especially if the Mets are paying for a big chunk of salary.

I don’t think Ryan Clifford is a fill-in. I think he’s a better prospect than Gilbert. Not the athlete/fielder, obviously, but he looks like he can absolutely rake. 

.900+ OPS at High A at 19 puts him in pretty rarified air for a hitter. Well ahead of where Coby Mayo was at that age, for example. Once you get past Holliday and Junior Caminero (thanks Guardians), I’m not sure there’s another 19-year-old currently in the minors that you’d firmly place ahead of Clifford as a pure hitter at the moment.