What kind of contract will Santander get as a free agent, assuming performance close to 2022-23 next year?

[Frobby]

Reading all the Santander talk in the thread that is supposedly about Ortiz, I’m wondering just how highly people think Santander is valued.   Let’s assume 2024 is in line with 2022-23 more or less, and he stays healthy.  What kind of FA contract do you think he gets?  @wildcardthinks 5/$100 mm.   Is Santander in that ballpark?

[tntoriole]

I think 5/100 would be reasonable for Anthony’s 30-35 year seasons.  He had 2.1 WAR last year, is at 2.5 now .. lets say he averages 2-2.5 WAR during life of deal. 
This WAR salary Fangraphs article is 2021 but had 8.5 million per WAR in 2022

For 5 years even at that rate (probably more like 10 mil in 2024)  it would be 85-106.5 million 

 

So yes for me 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-in-free-agency/

 

[waroriole]

3 years is my guess but I could see a team going 4 years depending on how many bats are on the market. 5/100 is silly

[25 Nuggets]

Some estimated market value AAVs for 2024 free agents from Spotrac (so take it with a grain of salt)

Rhys Hoskins - 18.37

Lourdes Gurriel - 17.76

Josh Bell - 17.56

Max Muncy - 15.00

Matt Chapman - 14.75

Joey Gallo - 13.22

[Just Regular]

Last offseason Abreu 3/60, Rizzo 2/40 and Haniger 3/45 are a few older guys who to me feel around Santander's overall performance level.

2021-2023:

Santander is 1500 PA of 114 OPS+, including his bad 2021 where if I'm his representation I'm giving context he wrecked his ankle early that year.     It'll be out of his 3-year sample by end of 2024 anyway.

2021-2022:

Abreu was 1300 PA of 129 OPS+, Rizzo was 1100 PA of 121 OPS+, and Haniger was 900 PA of 120 OPS+

Santander is about 7.5 years younger than Abreu, 5 years younger than Rizzo, and 4 years younger than Haniger.   

Guessing maybe ask is like Rizzo AAV, except that entering 2025 I'm 3 years younger than Rizzo was entering this year, which for back of envelope hits the 5/100 guess from @wildcard 

Anthony "Qualifying Offer" Santander!     

[Sports Guy]

He’s not getting 5 years if the years are similar.

I think his defense plays a role here. If he is viewed as just a DH, that hires him.

I would guess 3-4 years at 15-18M a year.

[DrungoHazewood]

I have no idea if my simple contract evaluator works anymore, I haven't updated it in 5-6 years. But Santander has an established value of just over 2.0 wins, and it says he should get a contract of something like 4/50.

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Reading all the Santander talk in the thread that is supposedly about Ortiz, I’m wondering just how highly people think Santander is valued.   Let’s assume 2024 is in line with 2022-23 more or less, and he stays healthy.  What kind of FA contract do you think he gets?  @wildcardthinks 5/$100 mm.   Is Santander in that ballpark?

FanGraphs has the cost of a win for 2022 FA at $8.5 million. Ant was worth 2.1 WAR last year and through 103 games has been worth 2.5 WAR this year. Should he continue on his current pace, he'd fall somewhere in the 3.7 - 3.8 range for WAR this year.

Is he going to get paid $30 million per year? I doubt it. He's in his age 28 season this year and will hit Free Agency after his age 29 season. He's not a bad outfielder but he has never been particularly fast and the advanced stats don't like him this year (though I think he's been not terrible out there).

His ability to hit from both sides of the plate and man First help his value. His similar batters through 27 list include Willy Mo Pena, Jorge Soler and none other than Jay Gibbson. 

Ant's hard hit % is up this year as is his pull% and EV, all career highs. The HR% is down while SO% is up and BB% is up this year. 

All of this to suggest that this is the hitter that he will probably be for the next few years before he begins to decline. When folks think that will happen is probably what will mostly drive his price tag in Free Agency. Ant is a good player for the O's and could be more valuable to their team than he would be to any other team. He's making $7.4 million this year, a number that will almost certainly increase (I'd guess by at least 30% but won't be surprised to see it rise as much as 50%). An increase of 50% would put his 2023 salary at $11.1 million, which, according to WAR, he is obviously worth. 

Last year the Gnats gave Nelson Cruz $15 million for one year at 0.1 WAR. The Phils are paying Schwarber $19.9 this year for - 0.9 WAR. I think Ant easily gets $20million per year when he hits Free Agency though I am not sure that anyone is going to give him a five-year contract as his defense will likely decline in the OF enough to push him to more games at 1st and DH.

5/100 is probably a good guess but I could see a team giving him that much money for less years. 4/100 wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility for him if he posts back to back 3.5+ WAR seasons (this year and next year). 

[SteveA]

You have to take into account that his heroic efforts on the big stage in the 2023 and 2024 World Series, with his delightful postgame interviews and the emergence of his British fanbase in an era where MLB is trying to market itself internationally, will have made him enormously popular.   Fans will be clamoring to have the Santander Experience come to their city.

[Frobby]

I think Castellanos would be a reasonable comp if you wanted to make the case for 5/$100 mm, which is what Castellanos got from the Phillies.   At the time, Castellanos had a career 114 OPS+, had been worth 12.5 rWAR in his career, and was heading into his age 30 season. He was coming off a 138 OPS+ season. 

Right now Santander has a career 109 OPS+, has been worth 7.5 rWAR, and will  be heading into FA beginning with his age 30 season.  Given another 1.3 seasons of performance similar to 2022-23, as assumed in my hypothetical, he’d probably be in the ballpark of Castellanos’ career OPS+ and rWAR figures, maybe just a little below   He’s never had a season as good as Castellanos’ 2021 season entering free agency though.   Plus, I think the last two years have shown that Castellanos was overpaid.  

So, I’m thinking that if Santander continues his 2022-23 production in 2024 (no guarantee that he does), he’s probably getting 4/$75 mm or more, but not Castellanos’ 5/$100 mm.
 

 

[Fan4Life]

25 minutes ago, waroriole said:

3 years is my guess but I could see a team going 4 years depending on how many bats are on the market. 5/100 is silly

I would offer him a 3/$36 deal now and get him through age 31-ish

[jabba72]

My guess is he's not going to be valued as a plus OF and that will limit his value. Somewhere around 3/50m will probably be his market assuming he has an 810 OPS type season next year. Maybe a team will give him a 4th year and he gets around 4/75, but I voted 3/50.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, banks703 said:

FanGraphs has the cost of a win for 2022 FA at $8.5 million. Ant was worth 2.1 WAR last year and through 103 games has been worth 2.5 WAR this year. Should he continue on his current pace, he'd fall somewhere in the 3.7 - 3.8 range for WAR this year.

Is he going to get paid $30 million per year? I doubt it. He's in his age 28 season this year and will hit Free Agency after his age 29 season. He's not a bad outfielder but he has never been particularly fast and the advanced stats don't like him this year (though I think he's been not terrible out there).

You probably need to regress his performance to some kind of established level. I like weighting the last four seasons at 4-3-2-1, which puts Santander's established level a little over two wins a season. Then I use the rule of thumb of a player declining half a win a year. So he's going to be worth 2, 1.5, 1, and 0.5 wins over four years. That adds up to 17, 13, 8.5, and 4.3M, for a total of about 43M, add in some inflation and I get maybe $50M over four years.

[clapdiddy]

23 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I have no idea if my simple contract evaluator works anymore, I haven't updated it in 5-6 years. But Santander has an established value of just over 2.0 wins, and it says he should get a contract of something like 4/50.

I think if they put this in front of him at the end of the year and he accepted, I'd be OK with it.

[oriole]

I feel like if the league valued Santander anywhere near what we all believe him to be, he’d have been traded by now. I voted 2/25 but I expect something more along the lines of 2/30.