Ben Clemens of Fangraphs: Orioles-losers at the trade deadline

[MurphDogg]

"The Orioles are a lock to make the playoffs this year, and yet their rotation is one of the worst in baseball."

By what measure? Sure the Orioles needed rotation help, but their rotation is by any measure I can find, pretty much in the middle of the league. 16th in ERA, 13th in innings pitched, 15th in WHIP, 15 in Ks, 10th in bb/9, 11th in k/bb. By Fangraphs WAR measurement, their rotation is 20th.

 

[Absltgreek]

10 minutes ago, Gurgi said:

Thing is this writer is not in on the calls between Elias and other teams.  You have no idea what the prospects being talked about were.  

I think teams were correctly trying to fleece the Orioles that is their job.  The Orioles job is not to do something stupid on the first year where our winning window is open.  Remembering all these evaluators had the Orioles not doing good this year again.  Showing some restraint I think is wise.  

I feel like this is a very under considered point. I agree with the general idea of the criticism, but without the context of what players are being discussed/demanded, it's hard to criticize making a bigger move just for the sake of making a big move, prospects given away be damned. If every controlled starter conversation started with Holliday, then the conversation should end there for now.

[sportsfan8703]

The same writers that thought we were losers because we didn't get Verlander, also don't know that Verlander is owed $96 million through 2025.

If we were perfect matches for Verlander, just wait till the offseason with Ohtani.  

Edited August 2, 2023 by sportsfan8703

[Gurgi]

People should go back and rewatch the video of Elias when he was hired for the job.  He states plain that the Orioles are going to be a draft and develop team.  No real mention of going on the free agency route and certainly no mention of buying at the deadline and over paying for diminishing talent.  The Orioles are way ahead of time and under no pressure to win now.  

Elias said he wanted to be the Tampa Bay Rays.  This should give you an idea of how he plans to approach things.  

And we can get back more talent in the offseason for players that might be blocked now.  

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Hot take alert: Jack Flaherty will pitch better the remainder of the season than Dylan Cease.

That's a pretty bold statement. I hope you are right.

[ledzepp8]

26 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I think if the O's get to the playoffs and the starting pitching falters, you will see the big move for a pitcher in the off-season.

Exactly. I would rather see them package a surplus of prospects for a pitcher/s with more service time during the offseason, rather than giving up too much for 2 months of someone that isn't much better than what's in house.

[sportsfan8703]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

That's a pretty bold statement. I hope you are right.

Cease didn't even get traded.  Flaherty has a pretty good shot at out performing Verlander and Scherzer.  I'm not afraid of their old butts in the playoffs.  We mopped the floor with both of them in 2014 in the ALDS.  

[Gurgi]

3 minutes ago, Absltgreek said:

I feel like this is a very under considered point. I agree with the general idea of the criticism, but without the context of what players are being discussed/demanded, it's hard to criticize making a bigger move just for the sake of making a big move, prospects given away be damned. If every controlled starter conversation started with Holliday, then the conversation should end there for now.

I saw a quote that Chicago demanded Jackson Holiday for Cease and never moved off that demand.  Hard to deal if teams are thinking now is the time to pluck the Orioles for talent.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, ledzepp8 said:

Exactly. I would rather see them package a surplus of prospects for a pitcher/s with more service time during the offseason, rather than giving up too much for 2 months of someone that isn't much better than what's in house.

The problem with trade deadline deals is it's almost always a sellers market with losing teams trying to unload pending free agents to restock their farm system. I'm glad Elias didn't cave into the demands of what it would have taken for the White Sox to trade Cease.

Cease isn't Chris Sale or Justin Verlander in their primes. Cease has has had one elite season during his career. 

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The same writers that thought we were losers because we didn't get Verlander, also don't know that Verlander is owed $96 million through 2025.

If we were perfect matches for Verlander, just wait till the offseason with Ohtani.  

John Angelos does not posses the means to outbid Steve Cohen. Nor can he outbid the Dodgers. He probably can't even outbid Moreno if we are being honest.

[ledzepp8]

26 minutes ago, FlaO'sFan said:

110 losses in 2021 to this year. I think Elias is doing ok with the math.

Also, you have to love how Fangraphs routinely craps on the Orioles and predicted them to be bad this year, but now all of a sudden the Orioles are losers for not trading a bunch of prospects for a few middling rentals to possibly increase the small odds of going all the way this year. 

Even now, they only predict the Orioles to go a game over 500 the rest of the season. 

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Cease didn't even get traded.  Flaherty has a pretty good shot at out performing Verlander and Scherzer.  I'm not afraid of their old butts in the playoffs.  We mopped the floor with both of them in 2014 in the ALDS.  

What wait??? What does Dylan Cease have to do with whether or not Flaherty outperforms Verlander or Scherzer for the rest of the season? What does 2014 when not a single player from the Orioles was on the team have to do with 2023?

I'm VERY confused.

[tntoriole]

45 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

"The Orioles are run by a sharp group of people; you’ll get no objection from me on that score. They’re surely aware of the perils of constantly looking to the future; it’s not a deep secret. But subconsciously, I think they might be struggling to change mental models. Constantly dreaming about what players might become in three years leads to systematic mis-evaluations of how important the present is at any given time. Concentrating value into windows of contention by adding at some deadlines and restocking at others is the way that teams with good process convert their farm systems into titles. The Orioles will figure it out, but I don’t think they’ve gotten the math right just yet."

He has an interesting point, however I don't agree with him. I think mortgaging the future on a starter that may or may not change your chances of a long playoff run is not smart. But this quote does have merit. Especially the bolded part.

2023 Trade Deadline Winners and Losers | FanGraphs Baseball

Something this guy is not short on is arrogance.  His patronizing attitude towards Elias is hilarious and demeaning.  As if Mike and his team are not only aware of every bit of his simplistic view but also add many years of real life, data driven decision making. 
Any individual decision he makes may or may not work and we fans can disagree as to what we might do… but it is not because Mike has not considered everything and more. 
 

And, as a psychiatrist, his referring to Mike’s “subconscious “ is what lay amateurs say when someone does something they disagree with lol .. it is hooey. 

Edited August 2, 2023 by tntoriole

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

The problem with trade deadline deals is it's almost always a sellers market with losing teams trying to unload pending free agents to restock their farm system. I'm glad Elias didn't cave into the demands of what it would have taken for the White Sox to trade Cease.

Cease isn't Chris Sale or Justin Verlander in their primes. Cease has has had one elite season during his career. 

Even though I wanted the O's to do better than what the ended up with in the Flaherty acquisition. I agree with everything you stated.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, ledzepp8 said:

Also, you have to love how Fangraphs routinely craps on the Orioles and predicted them to be bad this year, but now all of a sudden the Orioles are losers for not trading a bunch of prospects for a few middling rentals to possibly increase the small odds of going all the way this year. 

Even now, they only predict the Orioles to go a game over 500 the rest of the season. 

Fangraphs are just being haters then and they're not even paying attention to how the Orioles are playing of late.

 

Edited August 2, 2023 by OsFanSinceThe80s