Billy Cook 2023

[RZNJ]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

2022 (A+): .221/.298/.422, 31.8% K rate

2023 (AA): .261/.428/.473, 24.0% K rate

That’s excellent progress in a year.  No reason he shouldn’t start 2024 at Norfolk.  

He not only steals a good number of bases, but he’s successful at a high rate: 86% (25/29) last year and 91% (30/33) this year.  I also noticed that he’s only grounded into a DP 8 times in the last two years combined.
 

Good thing he can play multiple positions.   With Stowers, Haskins, Cowser, and Kjerstad, absent a trade, OF AB’s in Norfolk could be tough to find.

[Aristotelian]

Seems like he should be in our Top 20 at least, if not higher. MLB has him #27. OH is sleeping on this guy. 

[ChosenOne21]

18 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Seems like he should be in our Top 20 at least, if not higher. MLB has him #27. OH is sleeping on this guy. 

The results are decent, but it's not like he's destroying AA and he's not exactly young for the level at 24, and I'm not sure the tools are good enough to play at the major league level. I think he's probably earned back of the top 30 considerations, especially with our graduates, but I think the odds are against him being more than an up and down guy.

He has really good numbers in the flashy stats like HR and SB, which I think makes people overrate him. A .329 OBP in AA at 24 should really give people pause.

I haven't seen him play, but the stat line and what other people say about him reminds of Eric Byrnes. I think Byrnes is probably Cook's 99th percentile outcome, but Byrnes was the kind of player who both drove you mad and was an absolute blast to watch. I think it would be pretty neat to have that in an Orioles uniform, so fingers crossed for that one percent outcome.

Edited September 10, 2023 by ChosenOne21

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

The results are decent, but it's not like he's destroying AA and he's not exactly young for the level at 24, and I'm not sure the tools are good enough to play at the major league level. I think he's probably earned back of the top 30 considerations, especially with our graduates, but I think the odds are against him being more than an up and down guy.

He has really good numbers in the flashy stats like HR and SB, which I think makes people overrate him. A .329 OBP in AA at 24 should really give people pause.
 

I agree with every point you make, but I wouldn’t worry that much about him being 24.   He was drafted at 22 and has played a full year at Aberdeen and a full year at Bowie.   He’s not a level-jumping talent like our true studs, but he’s also not a guy who’s had to repeat a level.  And, the fact that he improved on some of his weaknesses this year is encouraging.  I’m not expecting him to ever be a big major league contributor, but he could develop into a useful bench guy, or a AAAA guy who can fill a role when you need him to.  Those guys have value.  

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Seems like he should be in our Top 20 at least, if not higher. MLB has him #27. OH is sleeping on this guy. 

I'm not sleeping on him. I just have concerns on his strike out to walk rate (39 BB to 118 K) and low OBP (.326 below the team avg of .334). He's also older for the league and his slash line against older pitchers is .249/.315/.394/.709. He's also not good defensively on the dirt and not a plus defensive outfielder despite his speed. 

As a right-handed hitter, he also does not hit lefties particularly well at .219/.303/.371/.674 in 120 PAs. I also think his power output is aided by hitter (power wise) friendly Prince George's Stadium. Away from home, he's slashed .239/.304/.362/.665 with just 5 homers in 237 PAs.

Does he have a little pop and speed? Sure. Is he a great 10th round pick and a bit of an overachiever? Sure. Is he the 27th best prospect in a loaded system? If he is, this system is not as loaded as people think.

At best he's a guy who sneaks in and ends up a Ryan McKenna type 4th/5th outfielder, but let's put this in context, McKenna is only two years older than Cook. At 24-year old, McKenna slashed .307/.423/.683/1.106 in AAA and is a much better defensive outfielder than Cook.

So I don't even think he's at Ryan McKenna level as a prospect. He's a nice little story, but let's not get too caught up with homers and stolen bases when he's hitting them at a hitter friendly and running against AA catchers/pitchers.

 

[Tony-OH]

On 9/8/2023 at 2:39 PM, Frobby said:

2022 (A+): .221/.298/.422, 31.8% K rate

2023 (AA): .261/.428/.473, 24.0% K rate

That’s excellent progress in a year.  No reason he shouldn’t start 2024 at Norfolk.  

He not only steals a good number of bases, but he’s successful at a high rate: 86% (25/29) last year and 91% (30/33) this year.  I also noticed that he’s only grounded into a DP 8 times in the last two years combined.
 

Where are you getting that .428 OBP from? His OBP is .326.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Where are you getting that .423 OBP from? His OBP is .326.

Typo.  It was .328 when I posted this, I just fat-fingered a 4 instead of a 3.  

[MurphDogg]

I agree with Tony, he is 24 and having a nice season at AA, but is certainly not the prospect that McKenna was, because McKenna was always young for his league and because McKenna's plus defense gave him a solid 4th/5th outfielder floor.

I agree he not a top 30 prospect, I doubt I would take him over anyone that Tony has on his top 40 prospect power rankings, even if he is much more likely to reach the Majors than the FCL and DSL guys on the back end of that list

Cook is going to need to hit next season at Norfolk at 25 and may well have to do so over multiple seasons to be looked at as more than a potential AAAA guy, and there will almost certainly be no room on the O's roster if he is.

I don't think it is any sure thing he ends up with more MLB success than the 26-28 year-old org guys that are currently having quietly decent seasons at Norfolk - Lewin Diaz, Daz Cameron, Robbie Glendinning and Josh Lester.

Still, I am just glad I didn't jinx him by starting this thread as he has had a .266/.339/.478 line since I started it, and nice to see a 10th round pick at least reach the upper minors.

[scarey1999]

Cook named EL player of the week 

[Gurgi]

Some people take a while to get to the majors like Christian Walker and Mike Yaz.

[Frobby]

Nice article here following Cook’s AFL walk-off from a few days ago:

https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-billy-cook-hits-walk-off-homer-in-arizona-fall-league?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

“Last year, there were a lot of strikeouts and swing and miss. I think I was swinging a little too hard, so I’m taking maybe a little step back and swinging 85 percent instead of 100 and just staying a little more loose to make a little more contact. When I do make contact, it goes.

“That’s what the Orioles said. They just said try to increase the contact and walk a little more. I’m an aggressive hitter, so just being a little more patient and trusting I can stay in my zone and work from there rather than expanding.”

[sportsfan8703]

Seems like a Norby type or a bit lesser, which could have some value as deep depth.  He's RH which helps because our system seems very LH.  He doesn't have to be Rule 5 protected until next offseason.  

[RZNJ]

On 10/9/2023 at 5:22 PM, Frobby said:

Nice article here following Cook’s AFL walk-off from a few days ago:

https://www.mlb.com/news/orioles-billy-cook-hits-walk-off-homer-in-arizona-fall-league?t=arizona-fall-league-coverage

“Last year, there were a lot of strikeouts and swing and miss. I think I was swinging a little too hard, so I’m taking maybe a little step back and swinging 85 percent instead of 100 and just staying a little more loose to make a little more contact. When I do make contact, it goes.

“That’s what the Orioles said. They just said try to increase the contact and walk a little more. I’m an aggressive hitter, so just being a little more patient and trusting I can stay in my zone and work from there rather than expanding.”

Billy Cook just keeps grinding his way along.   He gets a little better every year while advancing through the system.  He's at .862 OPS overall but .929 after almost 100 PA at Norfolk.   Striking out less.  Walking more.  Hitting more doubles but less homers so far.  Stealing some bases.  Playing all three OF positions, 1B and 2B.   Can I get a top 30 for this kid @Tony-OH?

[luismatos4prez]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Billy Cook just keeps grinding his way along.   He gets a little better every year while advancing through the system.  He's at .862 OPS overall but .929 after almost 100 PA at Norfolk.   Striking out less.  Walking more.  Hitting more doubles but less homers so far.  Stealing some bases.  Playing all three OF positions, 1B and 2B.   Can I get a top 30 for this kid @Tony-OH?

I was thinking this last night as well. His numbers are eye-popping right now. Tony's write-up on him over the winter makes him sound like Steve Pearce with SB ability, though Cook actually has reverse splits in the minors.

One knock against him is that he's vastly outperforming his batted ball metrics according to Statcast. .411 wOBA vs .335 xwOBA and the lowest EV (85.7) of Norfolk's starters. So my guess is he's just on a heater right now, but he has some potential to be a bench guy in the future. Worth keeping an eye on.

Norfolk Statcast Data

[Tony-OH]

16 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Billy Cook just keeps grinding his way along.   He gets a little better every year while advancing through the system.  He's at .862 OPS overall but .929 after almost 100 PA at Norfolk.   Striking out less.  Walking more.  Hitting more doubles but less homers so far.  Stealing some bases.  Playing all three OF positions, 1B and 2B.   Can I get a top 30 for this kid @Tony-OH?

Ha, I know you love your boy!  

He is improving but while he's "versatile" in that he has experience at a lot of positions, he's not really good at any of them. He reminds me a bit of Rick Short but shorty was a better hitter overall albeit with a little less power than Cook.

I still think he's an org guy but he may at some point work his way into a major league bench one day. There are worse guys who played in the majors for sure.