Astros series

[TopGunnar]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I've long held a theory that the game after a no-hitter is usually a clunker for a starting pitcher.  Not always, but it is a high percentage of the time.  I've not dedicated a second of time to researching this, btw.

Looking forward to seeing if we can light up Valdez tonight.  

It does usually seem that way doesn’t it

[Alasdaire]

3 minutes ago, Dibbs31 said:

A 6-game sample size in no way is enough to make trade deadline decisions

It's a proxy that has some utility in the absence of more complete information. I'll count my blessings because in years gone by, we wouldn't have even had the interleague matchups to know how we compared to NL teams.

If we played the Braves and Dodgers 100 times, how many do we win? More than 33/100?

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I've long held a theory that the game after a no-hitter is usually a clunker for a starting pitcher. 

Tell it to Johnny Van der Meer.  

[Dibbs31]

38 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

It's a proxy that has some utility in the absence of more complete information. I'll count my blessings because in years gone by, we wouldn't have even had the interleague matchups to know how we compared to NL teams.

If we played the Braves and Dodgers 100 times, how many do we win? More than 33/100?

Absolutely more than 33. We went around 2-25 with RISP against the Braves on Saturday/Sunday and lost twice in extra innings. Could have easily been a sweep. In over 100 games against one of the hardest schedules in the majors we have a better record than the Dodgers and one game back of the Braves. Much better sample size there. 

[Alasdaire]

15 minutes ago, Dibbs31 said:

Absolutely more than 33. We went around 2-25 with RISP against the Braves on Saturday/Sunday and lost twice in extra innings. Could have easily been a sweep. In over 100 games against one of the hardest schedules in the majors we have a better record than the Dodgers and one game back of the Braves. Much better sample size there. 

I personally don't think that our record against teams like the Athletics or Nationals speaks to how we would fare against the Braves/Dodgers/Astros. I'm also reluctant to extrapolate from divisional games because the familiarity there levels the playing field. Even a series against the Twins or Rangers isn't particularly telling because those teams don't have cache. Our regular season record speaks to how good we are against the field.

Maybe we sweep the Braves, or maybe we get swept. The fact is we went 2-4. And I think that's ultimately a pretty fair representation of our talent level and head-to-head performance compared to those teams. In a three-game series, someone has to win more games than the other, and we weren't good enough in either case. We'll see if that's any different with Houston.

[Dibbs31]

5 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

I personally don't think that our record against teams like the Athletics or Nationals speaks to how we would fare against the Braves/Dodgers/Astros. I'm also reluctant to extrapolate from divisional games because the familiarity there levels the playing field. Even a series against the Twins or Rangers isn't particularly telling because those teams don't have cache. Our regular season record speaks to how good we are against the field.

Maybe we sweep the Braves, or maybe we get swept. The fact is we went 2-4. And I think that's ultimately a pretty fair representation of our talent level and head-to-head performance compared to those teams. In a three-game series, someone has to win more games than the other, and we weren't good enough in either case. We'll see if that's any different with Houston.

Agree to disagree. Our 70 wins this year arent against the Nationals and Athletics (only 5 games against those teams total). It is against (arguably) the hardest schedule in the major leagues. O's lost 2/3 to the Phillies. Are the Phillies a better team? Not by any other metric and I'd bet $10k that they dont beat us 67/100 times based on that series. It's baseball, 6 games is not a big enough sample size to tell us anything really. Believe the Oakland A's beat the Rays in a series earlier this year. 

[Alasdaire]

3 minutes ago, Dibbs31 said:

Agree to disagree. Our 70 wins this year arent against the Nationals and Athletics (only 5 games against those teams total). It is against (arguably) the hardest schedule in the major leagues. O's lost 2/3 to the Phillies. Are the Phillies a better team? Not by any other metric and I'd bet $10k that they dont beat us 67/100 times based on that series. It's baseball, 6 games is not a big enough sample size to tell us anything really. Believe the Oakland A's beat the Rays in a series earlier this year. 

Indeed we must agree to disagree, which reasonable minds can do. Here's to hoping we sweep the Astros and nudge us to 5-4 against those three teams

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Tell it to Johnny Van der Meer.  

There’s always an outlier. 
 

Framber doesn’t look tip top tonight. 

[Alasdaire]

Now 2-5 against the Braves/Dodgers/Astros, at least one of which has been represented in the World Series every season for the past six. Game lost tonight in the exact same fashion as the second game against the Dodgers when we were up by a few runs and they just whittled their way to a bases loaded and then capitalized with a granny. And blown tonight by our best player.

When you're leading your league, you probably get an effort from teams like the Braves, Dodgers, and Astros that they might not exercise in every regular season game. We haven't measured up yet. Do these games really feel like coin flips that are going to go our way in October? Seems to me more like we're a team with little experience and an unfinished roster going up against polished products who have track records of doing this for years.

[MDK02]

If we meet the Astros in the playoffs, they will be heavily favored. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Alasdaire said:

Now 2-5 against the Braves/Dodgers/Astros, at least one of which has been represented in the World Series every season for the past six. Game lost tonight in the exact same fashion as the second game against the Dodgers when we were up by a few runs and they just whittled their way to a bases loaded and then capitalized with a granny. And blown tonight by our best player.

When you're leading your league, you probably get an effort from teams like the Braves, Dodgers, and Astros that they might not exercise in every regular season game. We haven't measured up yet. Do these games really feel like coin flips that are going to go our way in October? Seems to me more like we're a team with little experience and an unfinished roster going up against polished products who have track records of doing this for years.

This is just silly.  We lost a game in aggravating fashion in the 9th.  It happens.  The fact that it was the Astros is no more significant than if it had been any other team.  

[Alasdaire]

Just now, Frobby said:

This is just silly.  We lost a game in aggravating fashion in the 9th.  It happens.  The fact that it was the Astros is no more significant than if it had been any other team.  

If it makes you sleep better at night to dismiss someone as silly for voicing an opinion that doesn't conform to yours then rest easy.

[oriolediehard]

That darn Tucker kept fouling off Bautista's pitches until he got his pitch to hit. That was the sign of the end of the game.

[Tbone83]

Getting the walk and hits in the 8th not only helped them cut the lead from 4 to 3, but guaranteed the heart of their lineup would be up in the 9th. Singleton was the must have out and he walked him. Pretty much everything that could go wrong went wrong in the 8th and 9th. 

[Alasdaire]

5 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

That darn Tucker kept fouling off Bautista's pitches until he got his pitch to hit. That was the sign of the end of the game.

It's incredibly eerie how similar it was to the first game against the Dodgers.

Grayson started and pitched well in each. We began an inning up by three runs in both instances. In that game and this one, the center fielder (that time Hicks) couldn't make a tough, but doable, play. Jason Taylor worked and worked a count like Kyle Tucker did. Two grand slams to put us down by one.

Mirror images! Almost like there's a pattern.