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Longenhagen has our farm system ranked 8th


Frobby

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Not everyone thinks we still have “the best farm system in baseball.”  Eric Longenhagen now ranks us 8th.  By dollar value:

PIT $308 mm

TEX $277 mm

CHC $259 mm

TBR $250 mm

BOS $245 mm

WSN $234 mm

LAD $233 mm

BAL $224 mm

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-the-draft-and-the-trade-deadline-affected-our-farm-system-rankings/

Not all that surprising when you consider that Gunnar, Grayson and Westburg all graduated, and several teams added high end talent in the draft.  We did well with Bradfield, but he’s not up there with guys like Crews and Skene in terms of impact on farm system rankings.  

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That makes sense.  We're seeing quite a few graduates.  And Bradfield wasn't one of the "top 5" from this year's draft class (who were consensus difference maker types). 

I do like his last chart that shows the change in playoff odds vs. the farm system movement.  IMO, that shows the needle we need to thread each year moving forward.

 

5 minutes ago, Say O! said:

Has he revised the grades for individual prospects?  I’m not sure that he has yet (Jackson Holliday likely up to 65FV for instance) and this list is just updated for rookie graduates and draftees? 

No.  None are ranked 65 or higher.  Only 8 with 60FV.  He's still fairly low on Cowser, Basallo, and Kjerstad too.  He's a little higher than others on Povich and probably Hall too.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

These are pretty useless since Fangraphs hasn’t re-graded any prospects outside their top 100 since their team-specific articles. The Orioles’ article was in February. For instance, Holliday is 60, Kjerstad is 45+ and Basallo is 40+. 

I expect all 3 to increase significantly once they are re-graded. If they were instead Holliday 65, Kjerstad 55 (even with Mayo) and Basallo 50, that would add $7M for Holliday, $38M for Kjerstad and $24M for Basallo. Which would put the Orioles comfortably at #1 again without any other changes (which of course would happen for other teams as well). 

Yep, this was a dumb exercise if he wasn't going to do a mid season reevaluation of his top 100. 

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16 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

These are pretty useless since Fangraphs hasn’t re-graded any prospects outside their top 100 since their team-specific articles. The Orioles’ article was in February. For instance, Holliday is 60, Kjerstad is 45+ and Basallo is 40+. 

I expect all 3 to increase significantly once they are re-graded. If they were instead Holliday 65, Kjerstad 55 (even with Mayo) and Basallo 50, that would add $7M for Holliday, $38M for Kjerstad and $24M for Basallo. Which would put the Orioles comfortably at #1 again without any other changes (which of course would happen for other teams as well). 

It's more a mismatch of expectations and goals.  The goal was to measure the draft and trade impact though.  The developmental impact (in theory) will be seen when the individual FVs are updated.  Our fanhood expects the latest and greatest.

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I imagine with graduations this is roughly where they will be at the end of the season.  Of course, you want to stay number 1, but it isn't that realistic.  There is a still a lot of high end talent, which is what you want with a team that already has a number of young studs up and taking up positions.  

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20 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

It's more a mismatch of expectations and goals.  The goal was to measure the draft and trade impact though.  The developmental impact (in theory) will be seen when the individual FVs are updated.  Our fanhood expects the latest and greatest.

You’re right. For purposes of the article the farm values for all non-traded/drafted prospects don’t need to be updated. But my point was to respond to the thread - we shouldn’t look at the farm values table now (which is available year round just only has the most recent rankings), and conclude that they think the Orioles have the 8th best farm at this point in time.

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Our minor league system having top ranking is no longer of a concern to me. It has done it's job in staffing the team with top level talent capable of winning a pennant. And we still have 3 top level talents to still graduate. 

The Braves, Rangers, Astros don't have top level system and in some cases don't even have any top 50 prospects. We are not always going to have best of both worlds. 

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