Competitive Window- 24' roster

[sevastras]

20 hours ago, wildcard said:

What position do you see Holliday playing on OD next year?

2B. Gunnar has a stronger arm. 

[jamorrow91]

Couple of questions:

1. How is Mayo’s speed and agility compared to Kjerstad’s? I’m curious about Mayo’s ability to play RF given his big arm. It seems 1B is his likely destination if he keeps hitting but if he can move well I hope he is given more of a look in the OF, which it seems hasn’t happened as of yet. Of course, assuming that Gunnar has locked down 3B and either Ortiz or Holliday are at short.
2. Might Westburg be able to play some 1B in addition to the COF? He has the size and should have the requisite hitting. If Mayo is preferable in RF due to his arm, it may make sense to have Westburg as first against some lefties if Cowser or Kjerstad end up struggling vs LHP.

[jamorrow91]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Santander, McKenna, rule 5 draft, and MILB deals, will be our big moves. Nothing sexy. We’re built for 162 much like how the Rays are. If we need a piece, then we’ll make a move at the deadline.

Means - Gibson

Ortiz - Frazier

Holliday call up 8/31?

Kjerstad call up 6/15?

DL Hall any role?

Jorge Lopez reunion

Adley or Gunnar Extensions?

The big offseason question for us is Santander. Do we trade him for the best deal, or do we just let him play out his final year and QO him?  Cowser would be his replacement with Kjerstad in the mix post Mid June. O’Hearn too. The goal would be to be the best team come September and not March. 

I really only see Elias picking up depth pieces and not giving out a guaranteed contract. I could see Jorge Lopez back on a milb deal. We’re probably going to lose Lester, Cameron, Diaz to FA. 

McKenna is also out of options for next year. Cameron already is. Fabian is struggling in Bowie. Haskin has been hurt in AAA. We could see Elias had Cameron to the 40 man and let Cameron and McKenna battle it out in ST for backup CF. I don’t think we’ll do that. It’s probably McKenna’s job until Haskin is ready. Cowser and Hays if there is an injury.

Rule 5 draft. I don’t think we have a crunch, and I do expect us to draft an arm. The 2020 draft was only 5 rounds so this should be a really thin draft class. It’s a free shot to pick a Sigbot guy. Also, to take a pitcher they liked from the 2019 draft. They seem to get one of those in every deal we make. 

I’m interested in Cameron being the 4th OF,/backup CF over McKenna. He’s had a quietly solid season in AAA. Reduced strikeouts, solid power and OBP, can steal bases. I doubt Haskin is considered to start next year with such limited AAA experience. 

[Sports Guy]

I just don’t get the idea of taking the OFer out of the OF and the IFer out of the IF.  It just doesn’t make logical sense to think/do it that way.

Maybe Mayo has the better arm but Kjerstad has a good arm too. Mayo, since he is a third baseman, is probably more agile in the IF Vs Kjerstad. 
 

 

[jamorrow91]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I just don’t get the idea of taking the OFer out of the OF and the IFer out of the IF.  It just doesn’t make logical sense to think/do it that way.

Maybe Mayo has the better arm but Kjerstad has a good arm too. Mayo, since he is a third baseman, is probably more agile in the IF Vs Kjerstad. 
 

 

Definitely see what you’re saying. It’s most likely that Mayo is at first if he’s not at third. But we keep hearing about that arm so figured it’s worth pondering. 

From what I read, it seems we will want Kjerstad at DH, if they have their choice of a best lineup with fielding. 

[Sanity Check]

On 8/17/2023 at 11:22 AM, Jim'sKid26 said:

 

 Snell seems like a guy the O's might go after.

 

Snell seems a guy who will get paid handsomely this offseason, and we won't in line to sign him to a long term (as in 3+ yrs) deal.  Elias isn't doing those with pitchers.

Elias also seem to sign proven position players as placeholders/insurance until we have confidence in the next man up.  Unfortunately, given where we are in the standings, I don't see many at bats being given to any of the Norfolk guys the rest of this year.  For now, it's AD, Gunnar and Westburg who will get the reps, along with the other core guys on the team, including Frazier and Mateo.  I would also bet that McKenna will get more at bats between now and the end of the year than any of Ortiz, Cowser, Stowers or Kjerstad.  Just my opinion...... 

[wildcard]

MLB Pipeline  and Tony  both rates Kjerstad's speed as 45 (below average)

MLB Pipeline rates Mayo's speed as 40 (slow);  Tony rates Mayo's speed as 50/45  (average now and below average in the future).

[jamorrow91]

Thanks. Sounds like ideally, neither of them are in RF. 

If Hays is kept, Cowser fits well in right or vice versa. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, sevastras said:

2B. Gunnar has a stronger arm. 

Right now I would say that  Holliday is behind both Westburg and Ortiz in 2B defense.   Holliday is only 19 so he may get better in time.

But next year is going to be interesting at 2B.

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, jamorrow91 said:

Thanks. Sounds like ideally, neither of them are in RF. 

If Hays is kept, Cowser fits well in right or vice versa. 

My opinion may change with more data but right now:

I would not be surprised to see Hays, Mullins and Santander back next season.

Cowser be the back up in all three outfield positions.      Kjerstad  working on  his defense in AAA to start the season.

I would not be surprised to see Holliday and Westburg working out next spring in the outfield because of the speed they offer.

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by wildcard

[Sports Guy]

Kjerstad is not slow.

[wildcard]

14 hours ago, Frobby said:

So many things affect range factor.  It’s worthless to compare RF of two players playing in different leagues, different stadiums, for different teams, behind different pitching staffs.  At a minimum, there are the following factors:

1.  What are the pitchers’ strikeout rates?  More strikeouts = fewer balls in play = lower range factor for the fielders.  

2.  Is the staff heavily right-handed or left-handed?   The more right-handed the staff, the more lefty batters in the lineup, the more balls hit to RF.

3.  Are the pitchers heavily ground ball pitchers or fly ball pitchers?  The more fly ball pitchers, the higher the range factors for the outfielders.   

4.  What are the field dimensions?   Generally, the bigger the outfield dimensions, and the more foul territory there is, the higher the range factor of the outfielders will be.  

Now, I don’t know how sone of these factors affect Santander vs. Kjerstad.  But I do know that because of issues like these, the sabermetrics community basically stopped using Range Factor as a good measure of range more than two decades ago.  https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Range_factor

 

However the point remains.  You don't have a better stat  to compare minor leaguers to major leaguers and neither do I.

Edited August 18, 2023 by wildcard

[jamorrow91]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My opinion may change with more data but right now:

I would not be surprised to see Hays, Mullins and Santander back next season.

Cowser be the back up in all three outfield positions.      Kjerstad  working on  his defense in AAA to start the season.

I would not be surprised to see Holliday and Westburg working out next spring in the outfield because of the speed they offer.

 

Wouldn’t surprise me either, but I would be slightly disappointed. We’ve seen the likely ceilings of Hays and Santander and their weaknesses. Cowser and Kjerstad should be superior offensive options with more upside. 

Agreed on Westburg seeing time in the OF. Holliday I think would be less likely but it can’t be ruled out. Westburg or Norby seem like they could take on the RH outfielder role that Hays occupies now.

This makes sense, to me, if Hays brings back enough value in a deal. Which is not a sure thing but his value may never be higher than it projects to be this offseason, barring injury. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I just don’t get the idea of taking the OFer out of the OF and the IFer out of the IF.  It just doesn’t make logical sense to think/do it that way.

In general players get drafted at the position they played in high school or college.  And they are developed as infielders or outfielders.    But once they get closer to the majors it about where there is a opening on the majors league team.   

The O's have Gunnar, Westburg, Ortiz, Holliday to name a few infielders.  They all aren't going to be the primary infielder at the three infield skill positions 2B/SS/3B.  

So the O's could trade one.  But they may not have to.   With Hays, Mullins and Santander all slowing down and getting close to FA,  Westburg and Holliday offer  speed that might be used in the outfield at some point.  Maybe they play them  in the outfield in ST.   Maybe if they look good they play the outfield as a fill in for a while.   And maybe one of them ends up in the outfield.   It depends on how they do.

Cowser looks to me to develop into an average outfielder defensively.   Westburg and Holliday are probably faster.   Kjerstad projects as a power hitter with below average speed.  

Just throwing this out there as something to think about.

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Kjerstad is not slow.

The rating don't say he is slow.  They say his speed is below average.   Are you saying that is not true?