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So... Can we win the World Series?

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orioleslist Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

orioleslist

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It was a pipe dream in March, but now we're exactly three quarters into the regular season and we're 75-47, 2 games up on the Rays and 8.5 up on Toronto--pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs barring a monumental collapse.

So now seems a good time to ask the question: Can we win the World Series?

In your best objective assessment of the team, do you think we can go all the way? If so, why? If not, why not?

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Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

Not with Frazier on the team.      Hey @Sports Guy, did I do it right?

Roy Firestone
Roy Firestone

Pitching wins in the post season. We simply dont have enough and the ones we have are really showing wear. They are gassed.

Frobby
Frobby

This gives me the opportunity to say how much I loathe the current Draft Kings ads where everyone is spraying bubbly all over the room. What is the damned point of those ads?  They’re noisy and obnoxi

orioleslist Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

orioleslist

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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Sure we can. So can a bunch of other teams.  But only one will.  

Fair enough. Thought I'd keep my wording simple, but obviously my question is more along the lines of "What do you think our chances are to win the WS?"

Bookmakers have us at about 10-1 right now. Fair or not? Why?

I personally wouldn't put any money on us at less than 20-1. Not just the Braves; I don't think we match up very well with major AL contenders, especially on starting pitching. Wondering if others can make the case for lower odds on us.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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28 minutes ago, orioleslist said:

Fair enough. Thought I'd keep my wording simple, but obviously my question is more along the lines of "What do you think our chances are to win the WS?"

Bookmakers have us at about 10-1 right now. Fair or not? Why?

I personally wouldn't put any money on us at less than 20-1. Not just the Braves; I don't think we match up very well with major AL contenders, especially on starting pitching. Wondering if others can make the case for lower odds on us.

Assuming we win the division, at 50% odds each series our odds would be 8-1.  If we don’t win the division, then 16-1.  So, 10-1 is kind of a hedge, as our odds to win the division right now are better than 50% but far from certain.  

I’m a firm believer that the playoffs are mostly a crapshoot, and that the odds of winning any particular series truly are about 50/50.  That said, I do think the Braves and Dodgers have a slight edge over us, and I think Texas and Houston might have a small edge on us too.  So, instead of 10-1, I’d probably put it at more like 14-1.   

I see that Fangraphs has us at about 24-1 (4.2%), less thst half the chance the Rays have, even though we are favored to win the Duvision.  Go figure.  

 

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Baltimorecuse Major Leaguer Rising Star

Baltimorecuse

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18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Assuming we win the division, at 50% odds each series our odds would be 8-1.  If we don’t win the division, then 16-1.  So, 10-1 is kind of a hedge, as our odds to win the division right now are better than 50% but far from certain.  

I’m a firm believer that the playoffs are mostly a crapshoot, and that the odds of winning any particular series truly are about 50/50.  That said, I do think the Braves and Dodgers have a slight edge over us, and I think Texas and Houston might have a small edge on us too.  So, instead of 10-1, I’d probably put it at more like 14-1.   

I see that Fangraphs has us at about 24-1 (4.2%), less thst half the chance the Rays have, even though we are favored to win the Duvision.  Go figure.  

 

I'll venture a wild guess.  The bookies see us as a distance runner not a sprinter.  The playoffs are a sprint.  There's not a lot of difference between our TOR and fifth pitcher.  Over a long series of games that works.  However, in a short series your 4th and 5th don't matter and maybe not your 3rd.  This is all pure speculation on my part.

Being a fan, I think Grayson's ability hasn't been recognized yet.  I think our best three willl be the post season surprise we need..........or not.  

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Billy F-Face3 Hangout Grand Counsel

Billy F-Face3

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I'm not Pete Rose, so I don't gamble on baseball.

That said, if you look at last year's playoffs, the post season can be unpredictable. Who would have thought a wildcard team would go farther than the Padres (who traded for multiple All Stars) and longer the team with 111 wins in the Dodgers? Who would have thought the wildcard Phillies would make win the National League and get to the World Series?

Get in, and anything can happen. Even Pete Rose becoming the spokesman for Draft Kings.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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28 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

 

Get in, and anything can happen. Even Pete Rose becoming the spokesman for Draft Kings.

This gives me the opportunity to say how much I loathe the current Draft Kings ads where everyone is spraying bubbly all over the room. What is the damned point of those ads?  They’re noisy and obnoxious, and don’t give one damned reason you should use Draft Kings.  In fact, if I ever did online gambling (which I don’t), I’d go out of my way not to use Draft Kings, just to punish them for tormenting me by running these insipid ads every frigging half-inning.  

Pete Rose as the Drsft Kings spokesman?  Now there’s an idea I could get behind, just to confirn the hypocrisy of MLB’s current stance on betting on baseball. 
 

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Daddy-O's Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

Daddy-O's

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If baseball was just about the talent level of your players, you could play it on paper.  Based on talent level alone, I think the Orioles would be an eighty win team.  The formula for winning above the talent level is in the management and usage of that talent.  I think this teams management team, gives them a chance to succeed and win a championship.

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Jim'sKid26 Major Leaguer Rising Star

Jim'sKid26

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I think the O's chances of winning it all hang on winning the division and having the best record in the AL. If they attain those two goals they will face the winner of the wildcard round with rested pitching. That will be a huge advantage. Given their pitching situation, it will be a "game changer." It also gives them Home field advantage throughout the AL portion of the Playoffs.

Should the O's get to the ALCS with a relatively rested bullpen, in other words a short ALDS win where rested starters from the scenario described above go deep in games and give the bull pen only a few innings, I like their chances. 

Once you get to the WS it's a total crapshoot. 

Now they are young and inexperienced but also could get hot. It's gonna be fun to watch!

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